A conceptual model of avalanche hazard

This conceptual model of avalanche hazard identifies the key components of avalanche hazard and structures them into a systematic, consistent workflow for hazard and risk assessments. The method is applicable to all types of avalanche forecasting operations, and the underlying principles can be applied at any scale in space or time. The concept of an avalanche problem is introduced, describing how different types of avalanche problems directly influence the assessment and management of the risk. Four sequential questions are shown to structure the assessment of avalanche hazard, namely: (1) What type of avalanche problem(s) exists? (2) Where are these problems located in the terrain? (3) How likely is it that an avalanche will occur? and (4) How big will the avalanche be? Our objective was to develop an underpinning for qualitative hazard and risk assessments and address this knowledge gap in the avalanche forecasting literature. We used judgmental decomposition to elicit the avalanche forecasting process from forecasters and then described it within a risk-based framework that is consistent with other natural hazards disciplines.     

Review: the environmental status and implications of the nitrate time lag in Europe and North America

The efficacy of water quality policies aiming to reduce or prevent nitrate contamination of waterbodies may be constrained by the inherent delay or “time lag” of water and solute transport through unsaturated (soil) and saturated (groundwater) pathways. These delays must be quantified in order to establish realistic deadlines, thresholds and policy expectations, and to design effective best management practices. The objective of this review is to synthesise the current state of research on nitrate-related time lags in both the European and North American environmental and legislative contexts. The durations of time lags have been found to differ according to climatic, pedological, landscape and management scenarios. Elucidation of these driving factors at a watershed scale is essential where water quality is impaired or at risk. Finally, the existence of time lags is increasingly being acknowledged at a policy level and incorporated into the development of environmental legislation. However, the full impact of these time lags is not yet fully understood or appreciated, and continued outreach and education in scientific, public and policy venues is still required.     

Modeling and simulating industrial land-use evolution in Shanghai,China

Journal of Geographical Systems - This study proposes a cellular automata-based Industrial and Residential Land Use Competition Model to simulate the dynamic spatial transformation of industrial...     

The physical parameters of the evolving population of faint galaxies

The excess number of blue galaxies at faint magnitudes is a subject of much controversy. Recent Hubble Space Telescope results have revealed a plethora of galaxies with peculiar morphologies tentatively identified as the evolving population. We report the results of optical spectroscopy and near-infrared photometry of a sample of faint HST galaxies from the Medium Deep Survey to ascertain the physical properties of the faint morphological populations. We find four principal results. First, the population of objects classified as 'peculiar' are intrinsically luminous in the optical ( M _B  ∼ −19). Secondly these systems tend to be strong sources of [O  II ] line luminosity. Thirdly the optical–infrared colours of the faint population (a) confirm the presence of a population of compact   blue galaxies and (b) show the stellar populations of irregular/peculiar galaxies encompass a wide range in age. Finally a surface-brightness comparison with the local galaxy sample of Frei et al. shows that these objects are not of anomalously low surface brightness, rather we find that all morphological classes have evolved to a higher surface brightness at higher redshifts ( z  > 0.3).     

Hydrogeologic Controls on Induced Seismicity in Crystalline Basement Rocks Due to Fluid Injection into Basal Reservoirs

A series of M_b 3.8–5.5 induced seismic events in the midcontinent region, United States, resulted from injection of fluid either into a basal sedimentary reservoir with no underlying confining unit or directly into the underlying crystalline basement complex. The earthquakes probably occurred along faults that were likely critically stressed within the crystalline basement. These faults were located at a considerable distance (up to 10 km) from the injection wells and head increases at the hypocenters were likely relatively small (～70–150 m). We present a suite of simulations that use a simple hydrogeologic‐geomechanical model to assess what hydrogeologic conditions promote or deter induced seismic events within the crystalline basement across the midcontinent. The presence of a confining unit beneath the injection reservoir horizon had the single largest effect in preventing induced seismicity within the underlying crystalline basement. For a crystalline basement having a permeability of 2 × 10^?17 m² and specific storage coefficient of 10^?7/m, injection at a rate of 5455 m³/d into the basal aquifer with no underlying basal seal over 10 years resulted in probable brittle failure to depths of about 0.6 km below the injection reservoir. Including a permeable (k_z = 10^?13 m²) Precambrian normal fault, located 20 m from the injection well, increased the depth of the failure region below the reservoir to 3 km. For a large permeability contrast between a Precambrian thrust fault (10^?12 m²) and the surrounding crystalline basement (10^?18 m²), the failure region can extend laterally 10 km away from the injection well.     

Aeolian sediment transport and morphologic change on a managed and an unmanaged foredune

Sediment transport and short‐term morphologic change were evaluated at a site where sand fences are deployed and the beach is raked (Managed Site) and a site where these human adjustments are not practiced (Unmanaged Site). Data were gathered across the seaward portion of a low foredune when winds blew nearly shore‐normal at mean speeds 8.9 to 9.3 m s^‐1. Data from traps revealed sediment transport rates at unvegetated portions of the foredune crest (40.2 to 43.5 kg m^‐1 h^‐1) were greater than on the backshore (4.9 to 11.2 kg m^‐1 h^‐1) due to onshore decreases in surface moisture and speed‐up of the wind passing over the foredune. Data from erosion pins indicate sediment input to the dune was 1.48 m³ m^‐1 alongshore at the Managed Site and 1.25 m³ m^‐1 at the Unmanaged Site. The Unmanaged Site had deposition at the dune toe, erosion at mid‐slope, and deposition at the crest. Deposition occurred at mid‐slope on the Managed Site near a partially buried (0.58 m high) fence with a porosity of about 65%. Deposition at partially buried wrack on the upper backshore and dune toe at the Unmanaged Site was about twice as great as deposition in this zone at the Managed Site. Results indicate that: (1) the seaward slope of the foredune can be a more important source of sand to the lee of the crest than the beach; (2) wrack near the toe can decrease transport into the foredune; (3) a scour zone can occur on the foredune slope above the wrack line; (4) a fence placed in this location can promote deposition and offset scour, but fences can restrict delivery of sediment farther inland. Evaluation of alternative configurations of fences and strategies for managing wrack is required to better determine the ways that humans modify foredunes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater flow and its effect on salt dissolution in Gypsum Canyon watershed,Paradox Basin,southeast Utah,USA

Groundwater flow is an important control on subsurface evaporite (salt) dissolution. Salt dissolution can drive faulting and associated subsidence on the land surface and increase salinity in groundwater. This study aims to understand the groundwater flow system of Gypsum Canyon watershed in the Paradox Basin, Utah, USA, and whether or not groundwater-driven dissolution affects surface deformation. The work characterizes the groundwater flow and solute transport systems of the watershed using a three-dimensional (3D) finite element flow and transport model, SUTRA. Spring samples were analyzed for stable isotopes of water and total dissolved solids. Spring water and hydraulic conductivity data provide constraints for model parameters. Model results indicate that regional groundwater flow is to the northwest towards the Colorado River, and shallow flow systems are influenced by topography. The low permeability obtained from laboratory tests is inconsistent with field observed discharges, supporting the notion that fracture permeability plays a significant role in controlling groundwater flow. Model output implies that groundwater-driven dissolution is small on average, and cannot account for volume changes in the evaporite deposits that could cause surface deformation, but it is speculated that dissolution may be highly localized and/or weaken evaporite deposits, and could lead to surface deformation over time.     

Rising powers: the evolving role of BASIC countries

The exponential growth in global populations, economic activity and resource utilization means it is becoming increasingly difficult to satisfy global demand for a number of fundamental resources, while some key ecosystems services are under stress. The likelihood of future resource scarcities have begun to influence the positions taken within international climate change negotiations by fast-growing developing countries. When Brazil, South Africa, India, and China formed the BASIC group it took many by surprise. The coordination needed to align this heterogeneous group of countries cannot simply be understood in terms of a set of shared interests around climate policy. How the BASIC group emerged and the nature of its cooperation on climate change are examined within the broader context in which these increasingly powerful countries came to join forces. Although traditionally aligned with the G77 group of developing countries, recent strategising as a group of emerging economies reflects their realization that there are insufficient global resources available to follow the same development pathway as industrialized countries. Hence, they must seek alternative growth pathways, which requires establishing common ground while also keeping track of each others' positions on important global issues like climate change.     

High-altitude data assimilation system experiments for the northern summer mesosphere season of 2007

A global numerical weather prediction system is extended to the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) and used to assimilate high-altitude satellite measurements of temperature, water vapor and ozone from MLS and SABER during May–July 2007. Assimilated temperature and humidity from 100 to 0.001 hPa show minimal biases compared to satellite data and existing analysis fields. Saturation ratios derived diagnostically from these assimilated temperature and water vapor fields at PMC altitudes and latitudes compare well with seasonal variations in PMC frequency measured from the aeronomy of ice in the mesosphere (AIM) satellite. Synoptic maps of these diagnostic saturation ratios correlate geographically with three independent transient mesospheric cloud events observed at midlatitudes by SHIMMER on STPSat-1 and by ground observers during June 2007. Assimilated temperatures and winds reveal broadly realistic amplitudes of the quasi 5-day wave and migrating tides as a function of latitude and height. For example, analyzed winds capture the dominant semidiurnal MLT wind patterns at 55°N in June 2007 measured independently by a meteor radar. The 5-day wave and migrating diurnal tide also modulate water vapor mixing ratios in the polar summer MLT. Possible origins of this variability are discussed.     

Time-calibrated estimates of oceanographic profiles using empirical orthogonal functions and clustering

Oceanographic climatology is widely used in different applications, such as climate studies, ocean model validation and planning of naval operations. Conventional climatological estimates are based on historic measurements, typically by averaging the measurements and thereby smoothing local phenomena. Such phenomena are often local in time and space, but crucial to some applications. Here, we propose a new method to estimate time-calibrated oceanographic profiles based on combined historic and real-time measurements. The real-time measurements may, for instance, be SAR pictures or autonomous underwater vehicles providing temperature values at a limited set of depths. The method employs empirical orthogonal functions and clustering on a training data set in order to divide the ocean into climatological regions. The real-time measurements are first used to determine what climatological region is most representative. Secondly, an improved estimate is determined using an optimisation approach that minimises the difference between the real-time measurements and the final estimate.