Testing the suitability of frictional behaviour for pyroclastic flow simulation by comparison with a well-constrained eruption at Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador)

We use a well-monitored eruption of Tungurahua volcano to test the validity of the frictional behaviour, also called Mohr–Coulomb, which is generally used in geophysical flow modelling. We show that the frictional law is not appropriate for the simulation of pyroclastic flows at Tungurahua. With this law, the longitudinal shape of the simulated flows is a thin wedge of material progressively passing, over several hundreds of metres, from an unrealistic thickness at the front (<<1 mm) to some tens of centimetres. Simulated deposits form piles which accumulate at the foot of the volcano and are more similar to sand piles than natural pyroclastic deposits. Finally, flows simulated with a frictional rheology are not channelised by the drainage system, but affect all the flanks of the volcano. In addition, their velocity can exceed 150 m s⁻¹, allowing pyroclastic flows to cross interfluves at bends in the valley, affecting areas that would not have been affected in reality and leaving clear downstream areas that would be covered in reality. Instead, a simple empirical law, a constant retarding stress (i.e. a yield strength), involving only one free parameter, appears to be much better adapted for modelling pyroclastic flows. A similar conclusion was drawn for the Socompa debris avalanche simulation (Kelfoun and Druitt, J Geophys Res 110:B12202, 2005).     

Groundwater recharge in irrigated semi-arid areas: quantitative hydrological modelling and sensitivity analysis

For semi-arid regions, methods of assessing aquifer recharge usually consider the potential evapotranspiration. Actual evapotranspiration rates can be below potential rates for long periods of time, even in irrigated systems. Accurate estimations of aquifer recharge in semi-arid areas under irrigated agriculture are essential for sustainable water-resources management. A method to estimate aquifer recharge from irrigated farmland has been tested. The water-balance-modelling approach was based on VisualBALAN v. 2.0, a computer code that simulates water balance in the soil, vadose zone and aquifer. The study was carried out in the Campo de Cartagena (SE Spain) in the period 1999–2008 for three different groups of crops: annual row crops (lettuce and melon), perennial vegetables (artichoke) and fruit trees (citrus). Computed mean-annual-recharge values (from irrigation+precipitation) during the study period were 397 mm for annual row crops, 201 mm for perennial vegetables and 194 mm for fruit trees: 31.4, 20.7 and 20.5% of the total applied water, respectively. The effects of rainfall events on the final recharge were clearly observed, due to the continuously high water content in soil which facilitated the infiltration process. A sensitivity analysis to assess the reliability and uncertainty of recharge estimations was carried out.     

Biostratigraphy of oligocene succession in the High Folded Zone,Sulaimani, Kurdistan region,Northeastern Iraq

Oligocene and Lower Miocene sediments from High Folded Zone of Iraqi Zagros have been studied paleontologically at south of Sulaimaniyah, Kurdistan Region, NE Iraq. The identified fauna are consisted of (25) genera and species of benthonic and (16) species of planktonic foraminifera. The fauna comprises relatively abundant foraminiferal assemblages of moderate diversity. Based on the stratigraphic distribution of these species, two biozones have been recognized which are Nummulites—Rotalia and Globoquadrina dehiscens zones. These biozones indicate that the studied sections of Basara and Khewata are of Late Oligocene–Early Miocene age. Based on the microfossils, it has been found that the age of sediments is equivalent to or represents Anah and Serikagni Formations. Some previous studies described Oligocene rocks (Kirkuk Group) as interior sag basin. In the present study, the occurrence of the group inside High Folded Zone and its rich fauna content are used for the discussion of the sag basin versus normal marine water.     

Holocene rockfalls in the southern Negev Desert,Israel and their relation to Dead Sea fault earthquakes

Rockfall ages in tectonically active regions provide information regarding frequency and magnitude of earthquakes. In the hyper-arid environment of the Dead Sea fault (DSF), southern Israel, rockfalls are most probably triggered by earthquakes. We dated rockfalls along the western margin of the DSF using terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides (TCN). At each rockfall site, samples were collected from simultaneously exposed conjugate boulders and cliff surfaces. Such conjugate samples initially had identical pre-fall (“inherited”) TCN concentrations. After boulder detachment, these surfaces were dosed by different production rates due to differences in post-fall shielding and geometry. However, in our study area, pre-rockfall inheritance and post-rockfall production rates of TCN cannot be evaluated. Therefore, we developed a numerical approach and demonstrated a way to overcome the above-mentioned problems. This approach can be applied in other settings where rockfalls cannot be dated by simple exposure dating. Results suggest rockfall ages between 3.6 ± 0.8 and 4.7 ± 0.7 ka. OSL ages of sediment accumulated behind the boulders range between 0.6 ± 0.1 and 3.4 ± 1.4 ka and support the TCN results. Our ages agree with dated earthquakes determined in paleoseismic studies along the entire length of the DSF and support the observation of intensive earthquake activity around 4–5 ka.     

Pile Head Cyclic Lateral Loading of Single Pile

This paper presents an elastic continuum model using an extended nonlinear Davies and Budhu equations, which enables the nonlinear behavior of the soil around the long elastic pile to be modeled using a simple expression of pile-head stiffness method. The calculated results were validated with the measured full-scale dynamic field tests data conducted in Auckland residual clay. An idealized soil profile and soil stiffness under small strain (i.e. shear modulus, G _s and shear wave velocity, V _s of the soil) determined from in situ testing was used to model the single pile tests results. The predictions of these extended equations are also confirmed by using the three-dimensional finite-element OpenSeesPL (Lu et al. in OpenSeesPL 3D lateral pile-ground interaction: user manual, University of California, San Diego, 2010). A soil stiffness reduction factor, G _s /G _s,max of 0.36 was introduced to the proposed method and model. It was found to give a reasonable prediction for a single pile subjected to dynamic lateral loading. The reduction in soil stiffness found from the experiment arises from the cumulative effects of pile–soil separation as well as a change in the soil properties subjected to cyclic load. In summary, if the proposed method and model are accurately verified and properly used, then they are capable of producing realistic predictions. Both models provide good modelling tools to replicate the full-scale dynamic test results.     

Minimizing dredging disposal via sediment management in New York Harbor

The Port of New York/New Jersey is naturally shallow, and therefore dredging is required to maintain depths necessary for navigation. About six million cubic yards of material must be dredged annually to maintain navigation channels and berthing areas. Opportunities for disposal of dredged materials in the metropolitan region are limited. The existing ocean disposal site that has, until recently, received the majority of dredged materials is nearing capacity. Under the new, more stringent, guidance for ocean disposal, a large percentage of the dredged material is not considered acceptable for ocean disposal because of contamination. This paper explores nondredging alternatives to reduce the volume of materials to be dredged, thus reducing the disposal volume. These alternatives include short-term options (e.g., reprofiling operations, in which sediments from high spots in berths are dragged to depressions in lower spots) and long-term sedimentation minimization options (e.g., subsurface berms or air bubblers deployed around berths and interpier areas). These methods require an understanding of sedimentation/circulation patterns of the harbor as a whole and the local area in which the specific methodology may be employed.     

Mapping landslide susceptibility with frequency ratio,statistical index,and weights of evidence models: a case study in northern Iran

The main objective of this study is to investigate potential application of frequency ratio (FR), weights of evidence (WoE), and statistical index (SI) models for landslide susceptibility mapping in a part of Mazandaran Province, Iran. First, a landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources. The landslide inventory map was then randomly divided in a ratio of 70/30 for training and validation of the models, respectively. Second, 13 landslide conditioning factors including slope degree, slope aspect, altitude, plan curvature, stream power index, topographic wetness index, sediment transport index, topographic roughness index, lithology, distance from streams, faults, roads, and land use type were prepared, and the relationships between these factors and the landslide inventory map were extracted by using the mentioned models. Subsequently, the multi-class weighted factors were used to generate landslide susceptibility maps. Finally, the susceptibility maps were verified and compared using several methods including receiver operating characteristic curve with the areas under the curve (AUC), landslide density, and spatially agreed area analyses. The success rate curve showed that the AUC for FR, WoE, and SI models was 81.51, 79.43, and 81.27, respectively. The prediction rate curve demonstrated that the AUC achieved by the three models was 80.44, 77.94, and 79.55, respectively. Although the sensitivity analysis using the FR model revealed that the modeling process was sensitive to input factors, the accuracy results suggest that the three models used in this study can be effective approaches for landslide susceptibility mapping in Mazandaran Province, and the resultant susceptibility maps are trustworthy for hazard mitigation strategies.     

Detecting remotely triggered temporal changes around the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault

Detecting temporal changes in fault zone properties at seismogenic depth have been a long-sought goal in the seismological community for many decades.Recent studies based on waveform analysis of repeating earthquakes have found clear temporal changes in the shallow crust and around active fault zones associated with the occurrences of large nearby and teleseismic earthquakes.However,repeating earthquakes only occur in certain locations and their occurrence times cannot be controlled,which may result in inadequate sampling of the interested regions or time periods.Recent developments in passive imaging via auto-and cross-correlation of ambient seismic wavefields (e.g.,seismic noise,earthquake coda waves) provide an ideal source for continuous monitoring of temporal changes around active fault zones.Here we conduct a systematic search of temporal changes along the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault by cross-correlating relatively high-frequency (0.4-1.3 Hz) ambient noise signals recorded by 10 borehole stations in the High Resolution Seismic Network.After using stretch/compressed method to measure the delay time and the decorrelation-index between the daily noise cross-correlation functions (NCCFs),we find clear temporal changes in the median seismic velocity and decorrelation-index associated with the 2004 M6.0 Parkfield earthquake.We also apply the same procedure to the seismic data around five regional/teleseismic events that have triggered non-volcanic tremor in the same region,but failed to find any clear temporal changes in the daily NCCFs.The fact that our current technique can detect temporal changes from the nearby but not regional and teleseismic events,suggests that temporal changes associated with distance sources are very subtle or localized so that they could not be detected within the resolution of the current technique (～0.2%).     

SWAT-based hydrological modelling of tropical land-use scenarios

Abstract

The Hulu Langat basin, a strategic watershed in Malaysia, has in recent decades been exposed to extensive changes in land-use and consequently hydrological conditions. In this work, the impact of Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) on hydrological conditions (water discharge and sediment load) of the basin were investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Four land-use scenarios were defined for land-use change impact analysis, i.e. past, present (baseline), future and water conservation planning. The land-use maps, dated 1984, 1990, 1997 and 2002, were defined as the past scenarios for LUCC impact analysis. The present scenario was defined based on the 2006 land-use map. The 2020 land-use map was simulated using a cellular automata-Markov model and defined as the future scenario. Water conservation scenarios were produced based on guidelines published by Malaysia’s Department of Town and Country Planning and Department of Environment. Model calibration and uncertainty analysis was performed using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm. The model robustness for water discharge simulation for the period 1997–2008 was good. However, due to uncertainties, mainly resulting from intense urban development in the basin, its robustness for sediment load simulation was only acceptable for the calibration period 1997–2004. The optimized model was run using different land-use maps over the periods 1997–2008 and 1997–2004 for water discharge and sediment load estimation, respectively. In comparison to the baseline scenario, SWAT simulation using the past and conservative scenarios showed significant reduction in monthly direct runoff and monthly sediment load, while SWAT simulation based on the future scenario showed significant increase in monthly direct runoff, monthly sediment load and groundwater recharge.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin