Transboundary aquifer mapping and management in Africa: a harmonised approach

Recent attention to transboundary aquifers (TBAs) in Africa reflects the growing importance of these resources for development in the continent. However, relatively little research on these aquifers and their best management strategies has been published. This report recapitulates progress on mapping and management frameworks for TBAs in Africa. The world map on transboundary aquifers presented at the 6th World Water Forum in 2012 identified 71 TBA systems in Africa. This report presents an updated African TBA map including 80 shared aquifers and aquifer systems superimposed on 63 international river basins. Furthermore, it proposes a new nomenclature for the mapping based on three sub-regions, reflecting the leading regional development communities. The map shows that TBAs represent approximately 42 % of the continental area and 30 % of the population. Finally, a brief review of current international law, specific bi- or multilateral treaties, and TBA management practice in Africa reveals little documented international conflicts over TBAs. The existing or upcoming international river and lake basin organisations offer a harmonised institutional base for TBA management while alternative or supportive models involving the regional development communities are also required. The proposed map and geographical classification scheme for TBAs facilitates identification of options for joint institutional setups.     

Variations in the geomagnetic dipole moment during the Holocene and the past 50 kyr

All absolute paleointensity data published in peer-reviewed journals were recently compiled in the GEOMAGIA50 database. Based on the information in GEOMAGIA50, we reconstruct variations in the geomagnetic dipole moment over the past 50  kyr, with a focus on the Holocene period. A running-window approach is used to determine the axial dipole moment that provides the optimal least-squares fit to the paleointensity data, whereas associated error estimates are constrained using a bootstrap procedure. We subsequently compare the reconstruction from this study with previous reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole moment, including those based on cosmogenic radionuclides (¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C). This comparison generally lends support to the axial dipole moments obtained in this study. Our reconstruction shows that the evolution of the dipole moment was highly dynamic, and the recently observed rates of change (5% per century) do not appear unique. We observe no apparent link between the occurrence of archeomagnetic jerks and changes in the geomagnetic dipole moment, suggesting that archeomagnetic jerks most likely represent drastic changes in the orientation of the geomagnetic dipole axis or periods characterized by large secular variation of the non-dipole field. This study also shows that the Holocene geomagnetic dipole moment was high compared to that of the preceding  40  kyr, and that  4 · 10²²  Am² appears to represent a critical threshold below which geomagnetic excursions and reversals occur.     

In-phase anomalies in Beryllium-10 production and palaeomagnetic field behaviour during the Iceland Basin geomagnetic excursion

Increases in the production rate of cosmogenic radionuclides associated with geomagnetic excursions have been used as global tie-points for correlation between records of past climate from marine and terrestrial archives. We have investigated the relative timing of variations in ¹⁰Be production rate and the corresponding palaeomagnetic signal during one of the largest Pleistocene excursions, the Iceland Basin (IB) event (ca. 190 kyr), as recorded in two marine sediment cores (ODP Sites 1063 and 983) with high sedimentation rates. Variations in ¹⁰Be production rate during the excursion were estimated by use of ²³⁰Th_xs normalized ¹⁰Be deposition rates and authigenic ¹⁰Be/⁹Be. Resulting ¹⁰Be production rates are compared with high-resolution records of geomagnetic field behaviour acquired from the same discrete samples. We find no evidence for a significant lock-in depth of the palaeomagnetic signal in these high sedimentation-rate cores. Apparent lock-in depths in other cores may sometimes be the result of lower sample resolution. Our results also indicate that the period of increased ¹⁰Be production during the IB excursion lasted longer and, most likely, started earlier than the corresponding palaeomagnetic anomaly, in accordance with previous observations that polarity transitions occur after periods of reduced geomagnetic field intensity prior to the transition. The lack of evidence in this study for a significant palaeomagnetic lock-in depth suggests that there is no systematic offset between the ¹⁰Be signal and palaeomagnetic anomalies associated with excursions and reversals, with significance for the global correlation of climate records from different archives.     

Crustal contaminants in the Permian Oslo Rift, South Norway: constraints from Precambrian geochemistry

During the late Paleozoic Oslo rifting event, the SW part of the Baltic Shield was penetrated by mantle-derived magmas from a depleted lithospheric or sublithospheric source. Along the way to their final emplacement, these magmas may have interacted with a heterogeneous continental crust, consisting of a mosaic of continental terranes, each with its unique composition and internal crustal history. Information on radiogenic isotope ratios and trace element distributions in the Precambrian terranes surrounding the rift can be used to define characteristic crustal components. These components may be used as endmembers in petrogenetic modelling of the Oslo Rift magmatic system. Based on available data, six endmember components can be identified, and (semi) quantitatively characterized in terms of Sr, Nd and Pb isotopes and selected trace elements. Data on the distribution of rock-types along the rift flanks allow estimates to be made of the relative importance of the components in different parts of the rift. Combining these data with petrological information may allow a realistic understanding of crust–magma interaction in the Oslo Rift magmatic system.     

Rare Earth Element and yttrium compositions of Archean and Paleoproterozoic Fe formations revisited: New perspectives on the significance and mechanisms of deposition

The ocean and atmosphere were largely anoxic in the early Precambrian, resulting in an Fe cycle that was dramatically different than today’s. Extremely Fe-rich sedimentary deposits—i.e., Fe formations—are the most conspicuous manifestation of this distinct Fe cycle. Rare Earth Element (REE) systematics have long been used as a tool to understand the origin of Fe formations and the corresponding chemistry of the ancient ocean. However, many earlier REE studies of Fe formations have drawn ambiguous conclusions, partially due to analytical limitations and sampling from severely altered units. Here, we present new chemical analyses of Fe formation samples from 18 units, ranging in age from ca. 3.0 to 1.8 billion years old (Ga), which allow a reevaluation of the depositional mechanisms and significance of Precambrian Fe formations. There are several temporal trends in our REE and Y dataset that reflect shifts in marine redox conditions. In general, Archean Fe formations do not display significant shale-normalized negative Ce anomalies, and only Fe formations younger than 1.9 Ga display prominent positive Ce anomalies. Low Y/Ho ratios and high shale-normalized light to heavy REE (LREE/HREE) ratios are also present in ca. 1.9 Ga and younger Fe formations but are essentially absent in their Archean counterparts. These marked differences in Paleoproterozoic versus Archean REE + Y patterns can be explained in terms of varying REE cycling in the water column.Similar to modern redox-stratified basins, the REE + Y patterns in late Paleoproterozoic Fe formations record evidence of a shuttle of metal and Ce oxides across the redoxcline from oxic shallow seawater to deeper anoxic waters. Oxide dissolution—mainly of Mn oxides—in an anoxic water column lowers the dissolved Y/Ho ratio, raises the light to heavy REE ratio, and increases the concentration of Ce relative to the neighboring REE (La and Pr). Fe oxides precipitating at or near the chemocline will capture these REE anomalies and thus evidence for this oxide shuttle. In contrast, Archean Fe formations do not display REE + Y patterns indicative of an oxide shuttle, which implies an absence of a distinct Mn redoxcline prior to the rise of atmospheric oxygen in the early Paleoproterozoic. As further evidence for reducing conditions in shallow-water environments of the Archean ocean, REE data for carbonates deposited on shallow-water Archean carbonate platforms that stratigraphically underlie Fe formations also lack negative Ce anomalies. These results question classical models for deposition of Archean Fe formations that invoke oxidation by free oxygen at or above a redoxcline. In contrast, we add to growing evidence that metabolic Fe oxidation is a more likely oxidative mechanism for these Fe formations, implying that the Fe distribution in Archean oceans could have been controlled by microbial Fe uptake rather than the oxidative potential of shallow-marine environments.     

Effects of climate variability on the distribution and fishing conditions of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the western Indian Ocean

Variations in the abundance and distribution of pelagic tuna populations have been associated with large-scale climate indices such as the Southern Oscillation Index in the Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Atlantic Ocean. Similarly to the Pacific and Atlantic, variability in the distribution and catch rates of tuna species have also been observed in association with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a basin-scale pattern of sea surface and subsurface temperatures that affect climate in the Indian Ocean. The environmental processes associated with the IOD that drive variability in tuna populations, however, are largely unexplored. To better understand these processes, we investigated longline catch rates of yellowfin tuna and their distributions in the western Indian Ocean in relation to IOD events, sea surface water temperatures (SST) and estimates of net primary productivity (NPP). Catch per unit effort (CPUE) was observed to be negatively correlated to the IOD with a periodicity centred around 4 years. During positive IOD events, SSTs were relatively higher, NPP was lower, CPUE decreased and catch distributions were restricted to the northern and western margins of the western Indian Ocean. During negative IOD events, lower SSTs and higher NPP were associated with increasing CPUE, particularly in the Arabian Sea and seas surrounding Madagascar, and catches expanded into central regions of the western Indian Ocean. These findings provide preliminary insights into some of the key environmental features driving the distribution of yellowfin tuna in the western Indian Ocean and associated variability in fisheries catches.     

Climate feedbacks determined using radiative kernels in a multi-thousand member ensemble of AOGCMs

The use of radiative kernels to diagnose climate feedbacks is a recent development that may be applied to existing climate change simulations. We apply the radiative kernel technique to transient simulations from a multi-thousand member perturbed physics ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, comparing distributions of model feedbacks with those taken from the CMIP-3 multi GCM ensemble. Although the range of clear sky longwave feedbacks in the perturbed physics ensemble is similar to that seen in the multi-GCM ensemble, the kernel technique underestimates the net clear-sky feedbacks (or the radiative forcing) in some perturbed models with significantly altered humidity distributions. In addition, the compensating relationship between global mean atmospheric lapse rate feedback and water vapor feedback is found to hold in the perturbed physics ensemble, but large differences in relative humidity distributions in the ensemble prevent the compensation from holding at a regional scale. Both ensembles show a similar range of response of global mean net cloud feedback, but the mean of the perturbed physics ensemble is shifted towards more positive values such that none of the perturbed models exhibit a net negative cloud feedback. The perturbed physics ensemble contains fewer models with strong negative shortwave cloud feedbacks and has stronger compensating positive longwave feedbacks. A principal component analysis used to identify dominant modes of feedback variation reveals that the perturbed physics ensemble produces very different modes of climate response to the multi-model ensemble, suggesting that one may not be used as an analog for the other in estimates of uncertainty in future response. Whereas in the multi-model ensemble, the first order variation in cloud feedbacks shows compensation between longwave and shortwave components, in the perturbed physics ensemble the shortwave feedbacks are uncompensated, possibly explaining the larger range of climate sensitivities observed in the perturbed simulations. Regression analysis suggests that the parameters governing cloud formation, convection strength and ice fall speed are the most significant in altering climate feedbacks. Perturbations of oceanic and sulfur cycle parameters have relatively little effect on the atmospheric feedbacks diagnosed by the kernel technique.     

Vulnerable or Resilient? A Multi-Scale Assessment of Climate Impacts and Vulnerability in Norway

This paper explores the issue of climate vulnerability in Norway, an affluent country that is generally considered to be resilient to the impacts of climate change. In presenting a multi-scale assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability in Norway, we show that the concept of vulnerability depends on the scale of analysis. Both exposure and the distribution of climate sensitive sectors vary greatly across scale. So do the underlying social and economic conditions that influence adaptive capacity. These findings question the common notion that climate change may be beneficial for Norway, and that the country can readily adapt to climate change. As scale differences are brought into consideration, vulnerability emerges within some regions, localities, and social groups. To cope with actual and potential changes in climate and climate variability, it will be necessary to acknowledge climate vulnerabilities at the regional and local levels, and to address them accordingly. This multi-scale assessment of impacts and vulnerability in Norway reinforces the importance of scale in global change research.     

Impact of stratospheric variability on tropospheric climate change

An improved stratospheric representation has been included in simulations with the Hadley Centre HadGEM1 coupled ocean atmosphere model with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the period 1979–2003. An improved stratospheric ozone dataset is employed that includes natural variations in ozone as well as the usual anthropogenic trends. In addition, in a second set of simulations the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal wind is also imposed using a relaxation towards ERA-40 zonal wind values. The resulting impact on tropospheric variability and trends is described. We show that the modelled cooling rate at the tropopause is enhanced by the improved ozone dataset and this improvement is even more marked when the QBO is also included. The same applies to warming trends in the upper tropical troposphere which are slightly reduced. Our stratospheric improvements produce a significant increase of internal variability but no change in the positive trend of annual mean global mean near-surface temperature. Warming rates are increased significantly over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean. The improved stratospheric representation, especially the QBO relaxation, causes a substantial reduction in near-surface temperature and precipitation response to the El Chichón eruption, especially in the tropical region. The winter increase in the phase of the northern annular mode observed in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions is partly captured, especially after the El Chichón eruption. The positive trend in the southern annular mode (SAM) is increased and becomes statistically significant which demonstrates that the observed increase in the SAM is largely subject to internal variability in the stratosphere. The possible inclusion in simulations for future assessments of full ozone chemistry and a gravity wave scheme to internally generate a QBO is discussed.     

Quantifying Organization of Atmospheric Turbulent Eddy Motion Using Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

Using three methods from nonlinear dynamics, we contrast the level of organization inthe vertical wind velocity (w) time series collected in the atmospheric surface layer(ASL) and the canopy sublayer (CSL) for a wide range of atmospheric stability ()conditions. The nonlinear methods applied include a modified Shannon entropy, waveletthresholding, and mutual information content. Time series measurements collected overa pine forest, a hardwood forest, a grass-covered forest clearing, and a bare soil, desertsurface were used for this purpose. The results from applying all three nonlinear timeseries measures suggest that w in the CSL is more organized than that in the ASL, and that as the flows in both layers evolve from near-neutral to near-convective conditions, the level of organization increases. Furthermore, we found that the degree of organization in w associated with changes in is more significant than the transition from CSL to ASL.