Progress in NTHMP Hazard Assessment

The Hazard Assessment component of the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program has completed 22 modeling efforts covering 113 coastal communities with an estimated population of 1.2 million residents that are at risk. Twenty-three evacuation maps have also been completed. Important improvements in organizational structure have been made with the addition of two State geotechnical agency representatives to Steering Group membership, and progress has been made on other improvements suggested by program reviewers.     

Vertical cross contamination of trichloroethylene in a borehole in fractured sandstone

Boreholes drilled through contaminated zones in fractured rock create the potential for vertical movement of contaminated ground water between fractures. The usual assumption is that purging eliminates cross contamination; however, the results of a field study conducted in a trichloroethylene (TCE) plume in fractured sandstone with a mean matrix porosity of 13% demonstrates that matrix-diffusion effects can be strong and persistent. A deep borehole was drilled to 110 m below ground surface (mbgs) near a shallow bedrock well containing high TCE concentrations. The borehole was cored continuously to collect closely spaced samples of rock for analysis of TCE concentrations. Geophysical logging and flowmetering were conducted in the open borehole, and a removable multilevel monitoring system was installed to provide hydraulic-head and ground water samples from discrete fracture zones. The borehole was later reamed to complete a well screened from 89 to 100 mbgs; persistent TCE concentrations at this depth ranged from 2100 to 33,000 microg/L. Rock-core analyses, combined with the other types of borehole information, show that nearly all of this deep contamination was due to the lingering effects of the downward flow of dissolved TCE from shallower depths during the few days of open-hole conditions that existed prior to installation of the multilevel system. This study demonstrates that transfer of contaminant mass to the matrix by diffusion can cause severe cross contamination effects in sedimentary rocks, but these effects generally are not identified from information normally obtained in fractured-rock investigations, resulting in potential misinterpretation of site conditions.     

Projected 21st century climate change on snow conditions over Shasta Dam watershed by means of dynamical downscaling

Snow is an important component of the Earth's climate system and is particularly vulnerable to global warming. It has been suggested that warmer temperatures may cause significant declines in snow water content and snow cover duration. In this study, snowfall and snowmelt were projected by means of a regional climate model that was coupled to a physically based snow model over Shasta Dam watershed to assess changes in snow water content and snow cover duration during the 21st century. This physically based snow model requires both physical data and future climate projections. These physical data include topography, soils, vegetation, and land use/land cover, which were collected from associated organizations. The future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the regional climate model under 4 emission scenarios simulated by 2 general circulation models (fifth‐generation of the ECHAM general circulation model and the third‐generation atmospheric general circulation model). The downscaled future projections were bias corrected before projecting snowfall and snowmelt processes over Shasta Dam watershed during 2010–2099. This study's results agree with those of previous studies that projected snow water equivalent is decreasing by 50–80% whereas the fraction of precipitation falling as snowfall is decreasing by 15% to 20%. The obtained projection results show that future snow water content will change in both time and space. Furthermore, the results confirm that physical data such as topography, land cover, and atmospheric–hydrologic data are instrumental in the studies on the impact of climate change on the water resources of a region.     

Observations and Impacts from the 2010 Chilean and 2011 Japanese Tsunamis in California (USA)

The coast of California was significantly impacted by two recent teletsunami events, one originating off the coast of Chile on February 27, 2010 and the other off Japan on March 11, 2011. These tsunamis caused extensive inundation and damage along the coast of their respective source regions. For the 2010 tsunami, the NOAA West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issued a state-wide Tsunami Advisory based on forecasted tsunami amplitudes ranging from 0.18 to 1.43 m with the highest amplitudes predicted for central and southern California. For the 2011 tsunami, a Tsunami Warning was issued north of Point Conception and a Tsunami Advisory south of that location, with forecasted amplitudes ranging from 0.3 to 2.5 m, the highest expected for Crescent City. Because both teletsunamis arrived during low tide, the potential for significant inundation of dry land was greatly reduced during both events. However, both events created rapid water-level fluctuations and strong currents within harbors and along beaches, causing extensive damage in a number of harbors and challenging emergency managers in coastal jurisdictions. Field personnel were deployed prior to each tsunami to observe and measure physical effects at the coast. Post-event survey teams and questionnaires were used to gather information from both a physical effects and emergency response perspective. During the 2010 tsunami, a maximum tsunami amplitude of 1.2 m was observed at Pismo Beach, and over $3-million worth of damage to boats and docks occurred in nearly a dozen harbors, most significantly in Santa Cruz, Ventura, Mission Bay, and northern Shelter Island in San Diego Bay. During the 2011 tsunami, the maximum amplitude was measured at 2.47 m in Crescent City Harbor with over $50-million in damage to two dozen harbors. Those most significantly affected were Crescent City, Noyo River, Santa Cruz, Moss Landing, and southern Shelter Island. During both events, people on docks and near the ocean became at risk to injury with one fatality occurring during the 2011 tsunami at the mouth of the Klamath River. Evaluations of maximum forecasted tsunami amplitudes indicate that the average percent error was 38 and 28 % for the 2010 and 2011 events, respectively. Due to these recent events, the California tsunami program is developing products that will help: (1) the maritime community better understand tsunami hazards within their harbors, as well as if and where boats should go offshore to be safe, and (2) emergency managers develop evacuation plans for relatively small “Warning” level events where extensive evacuation is not required. Because tsunami-induced currents were responsible for most of the damage in these two events, modeled current velocity estimates should be incorporated into future forecast products from the warning centers.     

Chemical dispersant effectiveness testing: influence of droplet coalescence

Thermodynamic and kinetic investigations were performed to determine the influence of coalescence of chemically dispersed crude oil droplets in saline waters. For the range of pH (4-10) and salinity (10 per thousand, 30 per thousand, 50 per thousand ) values studied, zeta-potential values ranged from -3 to -10 mV. As the interaction potential values calculated using Derjaguin-Landau-Verway-Overbeek (DLVO) theory were negative, the electrostatic barrier did not produce significant resistance to droplet coalescence. Coalescence kinetics of premixed crude oil and chemical dispersant were determined within a range of mean shear rates (Gm = 5, 10, 15, 20 s(-1)) and salinity (10 per thousand, 30 per thousand ) values. Coalescence reaction rates were modeled using Smoluchowski reaction kinetics. Measured collision efficiency values (alpha = 0.25) suggest insignificant resistance to coalescence in shear systems. Experimentally determined dispersant efficiencies (alpha = 0.35) were 10-50% lower than that predicted using a non-interacting droplet model (alpha = 0.0). Unlike other protocols in which the crude oil and dispersant are not premixed, salinity effects were not significant in this protocol. This approach allowed the effects of dispersant-oil contact efficiency eta(contact) to be separated from those of water column transport efficiency (eta(transport)) and coalescence efficiency (eta(coalescence)).     

Simultaneous Observations of the Chromosphere with TRACE and SUMER

Using mainly the 1600 Å continuum channel and also the 1216 Å Lyman-α channel (which includes some UV continuum and C iv emission) aboard the TRACE satellite, we observed the complete lifetime of a transient, bright chromospheric loop. Simultaneous observations with the SUMER instrument aboard the SOHO spacecraft revealed interesting material velocities through the Doppler effect existing above the chromospheric loop imaged with TRACE, possibly corresponding to extended nonvisible loops, or the base of an X-ray jet.     

Geology and geotechnical characteristics of sediments in east bay area,Mississippi delta

Abstract

Deltaic sedimentation has produced an accumulation of clay and silt with a maximum thickness of 90 m in East Bay area. Sediments in the upper 50 m grade from interbedded sand, silt, and clay near South Pass and Southwest Pass to predominantly clay in the central part of the area. The variation in the types of sediments and rates of deposition greatly affected the engineering properties of these deposits. Sediments from boreholes in the central part of the area have shear strengths of less than 10 kPa to a depth of at least 50 m. Near the distributaries, shear strength increases with depth; values as high as 43 kPa were measured in sediments in the upper 50 m. These sediments are generally stronger and coarser, and have a lower water content and liquid limit than do sediments at comparable depths in the central part of the area.