远离绿洲的沙漠近地面观测实验

通过比较远离经录洲沙漠区与临近绿洲沙漠区近地面的观测资料，发现临近绿洲沙漠区的逆湿现象主要是受到绿洲干扰的影响，沙漠地区地气之间能量交换主要由感热控制，潜热能量可以忽略不计，两个沙漠地区感热通量基本相当。ＨＥＩＦＥ中沙漠或戈壁观测到的能量收支过程基本上能够代表干旱地区的特征。     

江西省夏季降水年际变化的机理研究

通过对观测资料和大气再分析资料的诊断分析,研究了影响江西省夏季降水变率的物理机制。结果表明江西省夏季降水存在显著的年际变率。极端条件下,降水偏多的夏季可达降水偏少的夏季的降水量的三倍。中纬度地区的准静止波列和热带关键海区的海温异常是造成江西夏季降水异常的主要原因。当江西省夏季降水偏多时,欧亚大陆地区存在"正—负—正"的准正压Rossby波列结构,位于贝加尔湖的正活动中心能引导干冷空气南下,从而有利于江南地区的锋生和江西降水的增加。此外,当江西省夏季降水偏多时,前期冬季中东太平洋地区有El Ni1o事件的活动,并能通过大气桥在夏季印度洋地区形成正海温异常。通过"印度洋电容器"机制,印度洋的暖海温能激发向东传播的Kelvin波,引起菲律宾地区降水的减少。菲律宾地区抑制的降水能激发向北传播的EAP/PJ波列,使得西太平洋副热带高压西伸增强,从而有利于水汽向江南地区的输送,并造成江西夏季的降水增加。     

Development of a predictive model for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Clostridium difficile</Emphasis> infection incidence in hospitals using Gaussian mixture model and Dempster–Shafer theory

Clostridium difficile infection is one of the major patient safety concerns in hospitals worldwide. Clostridium difficile infection can have high economic burden to patients, hospitals, and government. Limited work has been done in the area of predictive modeling. In this article, A new predictive model based on Gaussian mixture model and Dempster–Shafter theory is proposed to predict Clostridium difficile infection incidence in hospitals. First, the Gaussian mixture model and expectation–maximization algorithms are used to generate explicit probability criteria of risk factors based on the given data. Second, Dempster–Shafter theory is used to predict the Clostridium difficile infection incidence based on the generated probability criteria that have different beliefs attributing to their different credits. The main procedure includes (1) generate the probability criteria model using Gaussian mixture model and expectation–maximization algorithm; (2) determine the credit of the probability criteria; (3) generate the basic probability assignment; (4) discount the evidences; (5) aggregate the evidences using Dempster combining rule; (6) predict Clostridium difficile infection incidence using pignistic probability transformation. Results show that the model has a higher accuracy than an existing model. The proposed model can generate the criteria ratings of risk factors automatically, which would potentially prevent the imprecision caused by the subjective judgement of experts. The proposed model can assist risk managers and hospital administrators in the prediction and control of Clostridium difficile infection incidence with optimizing their resources.     

云南普朗超大型斑岩铜矿床含矿斑岩成因及其成矿意义

普朗超大型斑岩铜矿床位于三江特提斯构造域义敦弧南部的中甸弧内,形成于晚三叠世甘孜-理塘大洋板片向西俯冲的消减带上。与成矿作用密切相关的石英闪长岩和石英二长岩具有相似的化学组成,w（SiO₂）>61%,w（Al₂O₃）为11.28%~19.12%,w（MgO）为1.98%~4.04%,Na₂O/K₂O比值介于0.3~2.4（平均0.8）;富集大离子亲石元素（Rb、Sr、Ba）而亏损高场强元素（Nb、Ta、Zr）,具有较高的Sr/Y（27~63）和La/Yb（14~31）比值,较明显的负Eu异常,在Y-Sr/Y和Yb-La/Yb图解中,部分样品落入埃达克岩范围内,另一些样品则落入正常弧钙碱性岩石范围。普朗含矿斑岩部分样品的埃达克岩地球化学属性可能与以下地质-地球化学过程有关：晚三叠世甘孜-理塘大洋板片向西俯冲时发生脱挥发分作用导致上覆地幔楔遭受流体交代,被流体交代的地幔楔随后发生部分熔融形成正常拉斑玄武质-钙碱性岩浆,这种钙碱性岩浆在岩浆房中或侵位过程中发生角闪石、斜长石和磷灰石等矿物的分离结晶作用形成埃达克质石英闪长岩或石英二长岩。普朗含矿斑岩中黑云母和角闪石斑晶的广泛发育表明原始岩浆是富水的,这种富水环境促进角闪石的大量结晶而抑制部分斜长石的结晶,导致残余岩浆的Sr/Y比值增加,从而使部分岩石样品具有埃达克岩的地球化学特征。这种富水的原始岩浆有利于后期岩浆热液体系的形成及铜等金属元素向流体相中分配转移,并最终形成普朗超大型斑岩铜矿床。     

砂井联合水泥土搅拌桩复合地基固结解析解

砂井联合水泥土桩复合地基是一种新型的复合地基加固技术,既可以加快软土地基固结时间,又可以增强软土地基的强度。针对该组合型复合地基的布桩特点,该类复合地基可以简化成以水泥土搅拌桩为中心的轴对称固结模型,并假定孔隙水沿径向渗流到砂井体内的流量等同于砂井体内排出的水量,考虑砂井的涂抹效应,推导出该类型下砂井联合水泥土搅拌桩复合地基固结方程。根据实际工程荷载多数单级施加和地基附加应力呈梯形分布的特点,得出了砂井联合水泥土桩复合地基固结解析解。通过对单级荷载情况下的复合地基固结解析解的退化,得出了瞬时施加荷载下的解析解。最后分别针对井径比、加荷历时、桩-土模量比、砂井渗透系数等影响因素,对复合地基固结性状进行了分析。该解答对提高此类复合地基的设计和计算水平有一定的理论指导意义。     

岩石结构分形维数与岩石压缩强度关系的探讨

运用分形几何学的理论和方法研究煤层顶板岩石的结构，发现岩石的粒度结构和孔隙结构均具有自相似性，粒度分形维数和孔隙分形维数与岩石压缩强度之间有良好的相关关系，故可以用岩石结构的分形维数定量表述岩石的压缩强度。     

Research advances in eco-hydrological process and function

Present studies on the coupling relationship and hydrology mechanism between basin ecosystem and hydrological process has become an international research frontier in hydrology. This paper investigates this coupling relationship, and also summarizes research and presents a method of combining isotopic technology with hydro-chemical methods, for the study of eco-hydrological process and function in different landscape zones. We then examine research trends for future direction and development of this field.     

Soft‐sediment deformation structures in Cretaceous non‐marine deposits of southeastern Gyeongsang Basin,Korea: Occurrences and origin

A variety of soft‐sediment deformation structures formed during or shortly after deposition occurs in the Cretaceous Seongpori and Dadaepo Formations of the southeastern Gyeongsang Basin exposed along coastal areas of southeastern Korean Peninsula for 0.5–2 km. These are mostly present in a fluvial plain facies, with interbedded lacustrine deposits. In this study, the features of different kinds of soft‐sediment deformation structures have been interpreted on the basis of sedimentology of structure‐bearing deposits, comparison with normal sedimentary structures, timing and mechanism of deformation, and triggering mechanisms. The soft‐sediment deformation structures can be classified into four morphological groups: (i) load structures (load casts, ball‐and‐pillow structures); (ii) soft‐sediment intrusive structures (dish‐and‐pillars, clastic dykes, sills); (iii) ductile disturbed structures (convolute folds, slump structures); and (iv) brittle deformation structures (syndepositional faulting, dislocated breccia). The most probable triggering mechanisms resulting in these structures were seismic shocks. These interpretations are based on the following field observations: (i) location of the study area within tectonically active fault zone reactivated several times during the Cretaceous; (ii) deformation structures confined to single stratigraphic levels; (iii) lateral continuity and occurrences of various soft‐sediment deformation structures in the deformed level over large areas; (iv) absence of depositional slope to indicate gravity sliding or slumping; and (v) similarity to the structures produced experimentally. The soft‐sediment deformation structures in the study areas are thus interpreted to have been generated by seismic shocks with an estimated magnitude of M > 5, representing an intermittent record of the active tectonic and sedimentary processes during the development and evolution of two formations from the late Early Cretaceous to the Late Cretaceous.     

张掖市水资源实物型投入产出表的编制应用

实物型投入产出模型更适合用于核算与量化分析经济系统与资源环境间直接及间接的耦合关联。采用Helga Weisz的方法,通过价值型向实物型表转换,编制完成张掖市实物型投入产出表。基于实物型投入产出模型,对张掖市各部门水资源利用在社会经济系统中迁移特点和部门关联程度及乘数进行分析。结果表明：实物表为我们提供了新的分析视角,此方法的应用在资源环境领域的应用具有相当的适用价值。间接需求对水资源影响不容忽视,每个部门的乘数作用很大程度影响该部门在虚拟水战略中的地位和作用。畜牧业、制造业、建筑业在张掖市水资源利用部门关联中作用突出,应作为水资源的社会化管理重点关注的部门。