Estimation of the transfer function by autoregressive deconvolution techniques—An application to time series analysis

The transfer function of time-dependent models is classically inferred by the ordinary least squares (OLS) techniques. This OLS technique assumes independence of the residuals with time. However, in practical cases, this hypothesis is often not justified producing inefficient estimation of the transfer function. When the residuals constitute an autoregressive process, we propose to apply the Box-Jenkins' method to model the residuals, and to modify in a simple manner the primary convolution equation. Then, a multivariate regression technique is used to infer the transfer function of the new equation producing time-independent residuals. This three-step autoregressive deconvolution technique is particularly efficient for time series analysis. The reconstitution and the forecasting of real data are improved efficiently. Theoretically, the proposed method can be extended to the convolution equations for which the residuals follow a moving average or an autoregressive-moving average process, but the mathematical formulation is no longer direct and explicit. For this general case, we propose to approximate the moving average or the autoregressive-moving average process by an autoregressive process of sufficient order, and then the transfer function. Two case studies in hydrogeology will be used to illustrate the procedure.     

鄂尔多斯早古生代古构造

用野外露头剖面、钻井剖面和地震剖面相结合的综合研究方法,首先用人工合成记录结合11口井的VSP资料,对鄂尔多斯下古生界进行层位标定。在此基础上,对鄂尔多斯全区下古生界371条共长15 683 km的地震剖面进行了重新处理和地层解释,这大大提高了解释精度。以此为基础,把鄂尔多斯下古生界划分为5个地层单位,即寒武系中下部、寒武系中上部及冶里组和亮甲山组、马家沟群下部、马家沟群上部、平凉组和背锅山组,并作出了它们的等厚图。从这些等厚图可以看出：前4个地质时期的古构造格局为“一隆三凹”,即西缘凹陷、南缘凹陷和东缘凹陷(或东部凹陷)呈“U”形从西南东三面包围着一个中部隆起。最后一个地质时期的古构造格局为“一隆二凹”,即西缘凹陷和南缘凹陷呈“L”形镶嵌在一个巨大的鄂尔多斯隆起的西缘和南缘。到奥陶纪末,鄂尔多斯全区以及整个华北地台均变为隆起区,从而结束了鄂尔多斯隆起和凹陷并存的历史。     

List of Forthcoming Papers

Other Index

List of Forthcoming Papers     

风廓线雷达水平风数据质量控制

基于九龙站风廓线雷达实时水平风数据制定了水平风数据的质量控制方法，首先求取中位数水平风场，其次构建实际观测风场和中位数风场的差值序列，然后求取差值序列的均方差，再根据差值均方差得到质控判别式，最后试验求取质控判别式中的质控阈值。通过对九龙站2017年风廓线雷达水平风数据质量控制发现，实测风向数据有2044185个，25721个没有通过质控，未通过质控的风向数据占总观测的比例是1.258%，风向数据在近地层通过质控的数据最多，随高度增加通过质控的数据量有所下降。实测风速数据有2044185个，18296个没有通过质控，未通过质控的风速数据占总观测的比例是0.895%，风速数据在2000～4000 m出错的最少，近地层次之，4500～7000 m出错的数据最多。质控后风廓线雷达和探空观测风数据的均方根误差减小，相关系数增加，风向数据质量在500～7000 m提升明显，风速数据在1500～8000 m之间提升明显。     

Sea ice thickness measurement and its underside morphology analysis using radar penetration in the Arctic Ocean

Sea ice, as an important component of the Arctic climate system, has drawn significant sci-entific interest. Sea ice thickness and its morphology have dramatic impacts on ocean-atmos- phere-ice interactions[1—4], which directly affect the exchange proces…     

内陆河流域分布式日出山径流模型——以黑河干流山区流域为例

应用常规的气象水文数据并结合GIS,建立了一个适合西北干旱区内陆河山区流域的以日为步长的分布式径流模型,并对黑河干流山区出山径流进行了模拟计算和讨论。模型以子流域作为最小的产流、汇流单元,根据植被覆盖将各子流域分为裸地区、乔木区、牧草区和冰川区,并根据实际调查将土壤分为 3层,各分区单独进行水量平衡计算。产流过程以土壤储水能力和储水量表征,而储水能力和储水量等则由土壤的孔隙度、干密度和厚度等表征。入渗原理基于土壤储水率平衡原理,并考虑重力势的作用。实际蒸散发与蒸发力和土壤体积含水量的乘积成正比,不同的土壤和植被具有不同的调节参数。模拟结果表明,模拟效果较差的原因是区域日降水过程具有较大的随机性,难以用有限的站点合理计算区域日降水量。寻找一个合适的区域日降水量计算方法是目前少资料大型流域分布式水文模型模拟成功的关键。     

从观鱼看庄子哲学的主旨

《庄子·秋水》篇中有一则庄、惠“濠梁观鱼”的故事 ,比较典型地表现了庄子的认识论思想 ,从审美的方法入手 ,在境界的意义上来看待 ,庄子哲学实质上是一种审美化的哲学 ,注重的是宇宙与人合二而一的本体论 ,即审美之“境”。     

Studies on the Tolerating Mechanism for Sulfide in Urechis Unicinctus (Echiura:Urechidae)-cytological observation on Urechis Unicinctus in Different Hydrogen Sulfide Environment

This study on the cytological changes of the body wall ,aspiratory intestine and crissal bursa in Urechis unicincuts by light microscope(LM) and transmission electron microscope(TEM) showed that the difference between the body wall and the natural environment rich in H2S was not obvious,that the wall color of the aspiratory intestine in H2S rich environment changed from normal semitransparency to dark brown.that its epithelia were disassembled and the electron density of its cytoplasm matrix was lower;and that in H2S rich environment many basoplhilic granules occurred in the epithelia of the crissal bursa.Granules with single membrane and myelinefingure were found with TEM.     

煤矿瓦斯浓度与气象因子相关分析及预报模型

对山西省大同市地方煤矿1979~1997年发生的90起重大典型事故案例进行分析,发现瓦斯事故是发生次数最多,占事故总数的33%,而其造成的灾害也最重。瓦斯浓度的高低与气象因子具有一定的相关性,通过统计计算,得出了旬瓦斯浓度与旬气温、旬气压的相关关系,建立了旬瓦斯浓度预报模型和逐日瓦斯浓度等级预报模型,预报拟合率和试报效果较好。利用该研究成果,结合中短期天气预报,可以提前预报瓦斯浓度的变化趋势,对于搞好煤矿安全生产的管理,及时加大通风,减少事故发生具有重要意义。     

Precise orbit determination for the GRACE mission using only GPS data

The GRACE (gravity recovery and climate experiment) satellites, launched in March 2002, are each equipped with a BlackJack GPS onboard receiver for precise orbit determination and gravity field recovery. Since launch, there have been significant improvements in the background force models used for satellite orbit determination, most notably the model for the geopotential. This has resulted in significant improvements to orbit accuracy for very low altitude satellites. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how well the orbits of the GRACE satellites (about 470 km in altitude) can currently be determined using only GPS data and based on the current models and methods. The orbit accuracy is assessed using a number of tests, which include analysis of orbit fits, orbit overlaps, orbit connecting points, satellite Laser ranging residuals and K-band ranging (KBR) residuals. We show that 1-cm radial orbit accuracy for the GRACE satellites has probably been achieved. These precise GRACE orbits can be used for such purposes as improving gravity recovery from the GRACE KBR data and for atmospheric profiling, and they demonstrate the quality of the background force models being used.