A formal derivation and numerical modelling of the improved Boussinesq equations for varying depth

A formal derivation of the improved Boussinesq equations of Madsen and Sørens (1992) is presented to provide the correct forms of the depth-gradient related terms. Linear shoaling characteristics of the new equations are investigated by the method of Madsen and Sørensen (1992) and by the energy flux concept separately and found to agree perfectly, whereas these approaches give conflicting results for the equations derived by Madsen and Sørensen (1992). Furthermore, Nwogu's (1993) modified Boussinesq model is found to produce a linear shoaling-gradient identical with the present work. Numerical modelling of the derived equations for directional waves is carried out by three-time-level finite-difference approximations. A higher-order radiation condition is implemented for effective absorption of the outgoing waves. Several test cases are included to demonstrate the performance of the model.     

Recent water quality trends and a comparison to sediment-core records for two riverine lakes of the Upper Mississippi River basin: Lake St. Croix and Lake Pepin

Long-term water quality monitoring data from two riverine lakes in the Upper Mississippi River basin, Lakes St. Croix and Pepin, were analyzed to compare the long-term average water quality conditions and land use distributions, water quality trends and loads at lake inlets and outlets, trends from long-term versus short-term monitoring records, and the ability of paleolimnological cores to accurately infer lake water quality conditions. During the 1976–2004 period, the long-term average concentrations of nutrients, suspended solids, and chlorophyll-a were consistently lower at the Lake St. Croix inlet versus the Lake Pepin inlet, which drains a greater proportion of urban and agricultural runoff. Despite these differences, nutrient trends were similar at the inlets to both lakes; reductions in total phosphorus and ammonium concentrations were attributed to improvements in point source technologies, whereas increasing nitrate concentrations were attributed to both point source changes and nonpoint source increases. Despite improvements in several water quality variables, nitrate concentrations are increasing in both lakes, sediment trends indicate persistent nonpoint source inputs to Lake Pepin, and current total phosphorus concentrations remain well above pre-1950s levels in both lakes. Since urban development and agriculture are increasing in the Lake St. Croix and Lake Pepin Watersheds, continued point source regulation and additional nonpoint source control efforts will be needed to further improve water quality in these lakes. The 1976–2004 trends for most water quality variables were similar at inlet versus outlet sites on Lake St. Croix. Trends at Lake Pepin inlet versus outlet sites were less similar, but data availability limited the comparison to the 1993–2003 period. While the truncated data record highlighted short-term trends in both lakes, the full data record was most useful for exploring general patterns in water quality. Length of monitoring record affected our ability to detect trends at the inlets to both lakes, and altered the magnitude of detected trends. During the two decades of the 1980s and 1990s, paleolimnological estimates of retained phosphorus loads were similar to those estimated from recent water quality monitoring. These similarities support the use of paleolimnological approaches to infer past water quality conditions in Lakes St. Croix and Pepin. This is one of eight papers dedicated to the “Recent Environmental History of the Upper Mississippi River” published in this special issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology. D. R. Engstrom served as guest editor of the special issue.     

Strontium-calcium ratios in Cenozoic planktonic foraminifera

The $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$ ratio and other parameters have been measured in fossil planktonic foraminifera from the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins in order to evaluate the $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$ ratio of seawater during the last 75 million years. Results on well-preserved samples indicate that the ratio has increased to its present value by 10–15% during the Cenozoic, and that minima occurred between 55-45 Ma and 10-5 Ma, when the ratio was 15–25% less than at present. The long-term increase may reflect either decreasing deposition of aragonite with a high $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$ ratio in shallow seas, or decreasing seafloor spreading rates and consequently decreasing hydrothermal supply of Ca during the Cenozoic. Other geologic evidence suggests that the Eocene minimum (near 50 Ma) may have resulted from increased aragonite sedimentation, while the Late Miocene minimum (between 10-5 Ma) may have been caused by an increased rate of seawater-basalt exchange when seafloor spreading rates increased on the East Pacific Rise near 10 Ma.     

Airborne imagery of a disintegrating Sargassum drift line

Airborne hyperspectral and thermal infrared imagery collected over the Florida Current provide a view of the disintegration of a Sargassum drift line in 5 m s⁻¹ winds. The drift line consists mostly of rafts 20-80 m² in size, though aggregations larger than 1000 m² also occur. Rafts tend to be elongated, curved in the upwind direction, and 0.1-0.5 °C warmer than the surrounding ocean surface. Long weed ‘trails’ extending upwind from the rafts are evidence of plants dropping out and being left behind more rapidly drifting rafts. The raft line may be a remnant of an earlier Sargassum frontal band, which is detectible as an upwind thermal front and areas of submerged weed. Issues are identified that require future field measurements.     

Explicit stress–strain equations for modeling frictional materials

In this paper, a comprehensive study on simulating the shearing behavior of frictional materials is performed. A set of two explicit equations, describing the relationship among the shear stress ratio and the distortional strain and the volumetric strain, are formulated independently. The equations contain three stress parameters and three strain parameters and another parameter representing the nonuniformity of stress and strain during softening. All the parameters have clear physical significance and can be determined experimentally. It is demonstrated that the proposed equations have the capacity of simulating the complicated shearing behavior of many types of frictional materials including geomaterials. The proposed equations are used to simulate the stress–strain behavior for 27 frictional materials with 98 tests. These materials include soft and stiff clays in both reconstituted and structured states, silicon sands and calcareous sands, silts, compacted fill materials, volcanic soils, decomposed granite soils, cemented soils (both artificially and naturally cemented), partially saturated soils, ballast, rocks, reinforced soils, tire chips, sugar, wheat, and rapeseed. It has been demonstrated that the proposed explicit constitutive equations have the capacity to capture accurately the shearing behavior of frictional materials both qualitatively and quantitatively. A study on model parameters has been performed.     

Precessional forcing of tropical vegetation carbon storage

Since the Mid Pleistocene Revolution, which occurred about one million years ago, global temperatures have fluctuated with a quasi‐periodicity of ca. 100 ka. The pattern of past change in the extent of woodlands, and therefore by inference vegetation carbon storage, has been demonstrated to have a strong positive link with this global temperature change at high and mid latitudes. However, understanding of climate systems and ecosystem function indicates that the pattern of woodland change at low latitudes may follow a fundamentally different pattern. We present output from the intermediate complexity model GENIE‐1, comprising a single transient simulation over the last 800 ka and a 174‐member ensemble of 130 ka transient simulations over the last glacial cycle. These simulations suggest that while vegetation carbon storage in mid–high northern latitudes robustly follows the characteristic ca. 100 ka cycle, this signal is not a robust feature of tropical vegetation, which is subject to stronger direct forcing by the precessional (21 ka) orbital cycle (albeit with a highly uncertain response). We conclude that the correlation of palaeoenvironmental records from low latitudes with global temperature change must be done with caution. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Aegean Sea (Greece) earthquake sequence of 25 March 1986: An application of the ν-value method for earthquake prediction

A technique based on the ν-value, which is defined by % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaSGbaeaaca% GGOaGafqiXdqNbaebacaGGPaWaaWbaaSqabeaacaaIYaaaaaGcbaWa% a0aaaeaacqaHepaDdaahaaWcbeqaaiaaikdaaaaaaaaaaaa!3CEB!\[{{(\bar \tau )^2 } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{(\bar \tau )^2 } {\overline {\tau ^2 } }}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} {\overline {\tau ^2 } }}\], where τ is the time interval between two adjacent earthquakes and indicates the pattern of time sequences of earthquakes, has been applied to the 25 March 1986 Aegean Sea (Greece) earthquake (M _L = 5.2) in an attempt to discover temporal changes in seismicity. The analysis of several earthquake sequences revealed that low ν-values preceded the occurrence of relatively large earthquakes. The ν-value technique may be used for monitoring the seismicity changes.     

Modelling the impacts of subsurface drainage on surface runoff and sediment yield in the Le Sueur Watershed,Minnesota, USA

Abstract

Tile drainage influences infiltration and surface runoff and is thus an important factor in the erosion process. Tile drainage reduces surface runoff, but questions abound on its influence on sediment transport through its dense network and into the stream network. The impact of subsurface tiling on upland erosion rates in the Le Sueur River watershed, USA, was assessed using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Six different scenarios of tile drainage with varying drainage coefficient and management type (no till and autumn mulch-till) were evaluated. The mean annual surface runoff depth, soil loss rate and sediment delivery ratio (SDR) for croplands, based on a 30-year simulation for the watershed with untiled autumn mulch-till (Scenario 1), were estimated to be 83.5 mm, 0.27 kg/m² and 86.7%, respectively; on no-till management systems (Scenario 4), the respective results were 72.3 mm, 0.06 kg/m² and 88.2%. Tile drains reduced surface runoff, soil loss and SDR estimates for Scenario 1 by, on average, 14.5, 8.1 and 7.9%, respectively; and for Scenario 4 by an estimated 31.5, 22.1 and 20.2%, respectively. The impact of tile drains on surface runoff, soil loss and SDR was greater under the no-till management system than under the autumn mulch-till management system. Comparison of WEPP outputs with those of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) showed differences between the two methods.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Maalim, F.K. and Melesse. A.M., 2013. Modelling impacts of subsurface drainage on surface runoff and sediment yield in the Le Sueur Watershed in Minnesota, USA. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 570–586.     

Depositional history of artificial radionuclides in the Ross Ice Shelf,Antarctica

The annual fluxes of artificial radionuclides (²³⁸Pu,^239+240Pu,²⁴¹Am,¹³⁷Cs,⁹⁰Sr and³H) from the atmosphere to the Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica were determined from measurements in strata dated by²¹⁰Pb. Recognizable sources include the U.S. tests (Mike-Ivy and Castle Hill) in the early 1950s, the U.S.S.R. tests of the early 1960s, the SNAP-9A burnup of 1964 and the French and Chinese tests in the late 1960s and 1970s. There are several problems still awaiting resolution: the differences in atmospheric chemistries of fission products and of transuranics produced in weapons tests and the anomalous fluxes of²³⁸Pu to the ice shelf which do not appear to reflect a one-year stratospheric residence. There is no evidence for a smearing of the fallout record as a consequence of diffusion of these radionuclides in the glacial column.     

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.