Climate and human health: synthesizing environmental complexity and uncertainty

Broad relationships between weather and human health have long been recognized, and there is currently a large body of research examining the impacts of climate change on human health. Much of the literature in this area examines climate–health relationships at global or regional levels, incorporating mostly generalized responses of pathogens and vectors to broad changes in climate. Far less research has been done to understand the direct and indirect climate-mediated processes involved at finer scales. Thus, some studies simplify the role of climate and may over- or under-estimate the potential response, while others have begun to highlight the subtle and complex role for climate that is contingent on other relevant processes occurring in natural and social environments. These fundamental processes need to be understood to determine the effects of past, current and future climate variation and change on human health. We summarize the principal climate variables and climate-dependent processes that are believed to impact human health across a representative set of diseases, along with key uncertainties in these relationships.     

Zum Umweltverhalten von Fluortensiden Teil 1: Prüfung auf Aquatoxizität

Poecilia reticulata PETERS (guppy) and the green alga Monoraphidium griffithii were used for testing of different fluorotensides. After the representation of the methods of investigation and the definition of criteria of toxicity the obtained results of investigation are discussed. In general, the toxicity of the four investigated fluorotensides to algae was lower than to fish. The anionic fluorotenside CF₃—(CF₂)n—CFH—COONa was an exception. In tables and diagrams the results are summarized. Finally, for the condition of the receiving-water biocenosis class “2” the respective still permissible matter concentrations are proposed. They vary between 0.05 and 0.2 mg/1.     

On the existence of a second scale of convection in the upper mantle

Summary. This paper is concerned with an examination of the possibility that there might exist a small scale of convective circulation beneath the oceanic lithosphere. Recent suggestions that this might be the case have been made in an effort to understand why the bathymetry of the sea-floor deviates from the prediction of boundary layer theory for ages in excess of about 100 Ma. The energy source which sustains the secondary motion is supposed to be found in the steep temperature gradient near the planetary surface which is itself presumably maintained by the large-scale convective circulation associated with plate creation and destruction. Here we investigate the extent to which the temperature dependence of viscosity may act so as to stabilize the upper boundary layer against disruption by such secondary instability. If the viscosity profile is monotonie and the asymptotic upper mantle viscosity is about 10²²poise, as suggested by post-glacial rebound data, then the existence of the second scale is extremely unlikely. On the other hand, if a sufficiently pronounced low viscosity zone does exist under old sea-floor then the development of such a second scale cannot be ruled out completely. Some recently obtained geophysical evidence is reviewed which suggests that this is unlikely to be the case.     

Prediction of impact pressure induced by breaking waves on vertical cylinders in random seas

This paper presents a method to statistically predict the magnitude of impact pressure (including extreme values) produced by deep water waves breaking on a circular cylinder representing a column of an ocean structure. Breaking waves defined here are not those whose tops are blown off by the wind but those whose breaking is associated with steepness. The probability density function of wave period associated with breaking waves is derived for a specified wave spectrum, and then converted to the probability density function of impact pressure. Impacts caused by two different breaking conditions are considered; one is the impact associated with waves breaking in close proximity to the column, the other is an impact caused by waves approaching the column after they have broken. As an example of the application of the present method, numerical computations are carried out for a wave spectrum obtained from measured data in the North Atlantic.     

The origin of chondrules: experimental investigation of metastable liquids in the system Mg2SiO4-SiO2

Laser-melted magnesium silicate droplets, supercooled 400–750°C below their equilibrium liquidus temperatures before crystallization, were examined to provide a comparison with meteoritic and lunar chondrules and to examine physicochemical parameters that may indicate the conditions of their formation. Internal textures of the spherules strikingly resemble textures observed in some chondrules. Definite trends in crystal morphology, crystal width and texture were established with respect to nucleation temperature and bulk composition. Such trends provide a framework for determining the nucleation temperature of chondrules. The only phase to nucleate from the supercooled forsterite-enstatite normative melts was forsterite, which was present in more-than-normative amounts. Highly siliceous glass (~65wt. % SiO₂) was identified interstitially to the forsterite crystals in seven of the spherules and is thought to be present in all. The presence of enstatite and the large proportion of crystals in some meteoritic chondrules implies that they were maintained at temperatures considerably in excess of 600°C at some point in their history.     

Simplified formulae for designing coastal forest against tsunami run-up: one-dimensional approach

In the present study, laboratory experiments were conducted to validate the applicability of a numerical model based on one-dimensional nonlinear long-wave equations. The model includes drag and inertia resistance of trees to tsunami flow and porosity between trees and a simplified forest in a wave channel. It was confirmed that the water surface elevation and flow velocity by the numerical simulations agree well with the experimental results for various forest conditions of width and tree density. Further, the numerical model was applied to prototype conditions of a coastal forest of Pandanus odoratissimus to investigate the effects of forest conditions (width and tree density) and incident tsunami conditions (period and height) on run-up height and potential tsunami force. The modeling results were represented in curve-fit equations with the aim of providing simplified formulae for designing coastal forest against tsunamis. The run-up height and potential tsunami forces calculated by the curve-fit formulae and the numerical model agreed within ± 10% error.     

Snow interception modelling: Isolated observations have led to many land surface models lacking appropriate temperature sensitivities

When formulating a hydrologic model, scientists rely on parameterizations of multiple processes based on field data, but literature review suggests that more frequently people select parameterizations that were included in pre-existing models rather than re-evaluating the underlying field experiments. Problems arise when limited field data exist, when “trusted” approaches do not get reevaluated, and when sensitivities fundamentally change in different environments. The physics and dynamics of snow interception by conifers is just such a case, and it is critical to simulation of the water budget and surface albedo. The most commonly used interception parameterization is based on data from four trees from one site, but results from this field study are not directly transferable to locations with relatively warmer winters, where the dominant processes differ dramatically. Here, we combine a literature review with model experiments to demonstrate needed improvements. Our results show that the choice of model form and parameters can vary the fraction of snow lost through interception by as much as 30%. In most simulations, the warming of mean winter temperatures from −7 to 0°C reduces the modelled fraction of snow under the canopy compared to the open, but the magnitude of simulated decrease varies from about 10% to 40%. The range of results is even larger when considering models that neglect the melting of in-canopy snow in higher-humidity environments where canopy sublimation plays less of a role. Thus, we recommend that all models represent canopy snowmelt and include representation of increased loading due to increased adhesion and cohesion when temperatures rise from −3 to 0°C. In addition to model improvements, field experiments across climates and forest types are needed to investigate how to best model the combination of dynamically changing forest cover and snow cover to better understand and predict changes to albedo and water supplies.     

Density models for the upper atmosphere

Modeling the effects of atmospheric drag is one of the more important problems associated with the determination of the orbit of a near-earth satellite. Errors in the drag model can lead to significant errors in the determination and prediction of the satellite motion. The uncertainty in the drag acceleration can be attributed to three separate effects: (a) errors in the atmospheric density model, (b) errors in the ballistic coefficient, and (c) errors in the satellite relative velocity. In a number of contemporary satellite missions, the requirements for performing the orbit determination and predictions in near real-time has placed an emphasis on density model computation time as well as the model accuracy. In this investigation, a comparison is made of three contemporary atmospheric density models which are candidates for meeting the current orbit computation requirements. The models considered are the analytic Jacchia-Roberts model, the modified Harris-Priester model, and the USSR Cosmos satellite derived density model. The computational characteristics of each of the models are compared and a modification to the modified Harris-Priester model is proposed which improves its ability to represent the diurnal variation in the atmospheric density.This investigation was supported by the NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center under contract NAS5-20946 and Contract NSG 5154.