Development of a Software Package for Environmental Risk Assessment Based on Materials of Repeated Remote Surveys

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - This paper presents the development of a model version of a software package for analyzing the dynamics of dangerous exogenous processes in view of the...     

The history of water salinity in the Pearl River estuary,China, during the Late Quaternary

This research reconstructed the Late Quaternary salinity history of the Pearl River estuary, China, from diatom records of four sedimentary cores. The reconstruction was produced through the application of a diatom–salinity transfer function developed based on 77 modern surface sediment samples collected across the estuary from shallow marine environment to deltaic distributaries. The statistical analysis indicates that the majority of sediment samples from the cores has good modern analogues, thus the reconstructions are reliable. The reconstructed salinity history shows the older estuarine sequence formed during the last interglacial was deposited under similar salinity conditions to the younger estuarine sequence, which was formed during the present interglacial. Further analysis into the younger estuarine sequence reveals the interplays between sea level, monsoon‐driven freshwater discharge, and deltaic shoreline movement, key factors that have influenced water salinity in the estuary. In particular, a core from the delta plain shows the effects of sea‐level change and deltaic progradation, while cores from the mouth region of the estuary reveal changes of monsoon‐driven freshwater discharge. This study demonstrates the advantages of quantitative salinity reconstructions to improve the quality of reconstruction and allow direct comparison with other quantitative records and the instrumentally observed values of salinity. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity in the Upcoming Minimum of the Solar Activity Cycle

During the prolonged and deep minimum of solar activity between cycles 23 and 24, an unusual behavior of the heliospheric characteristics and increased intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) near the Earth’s orbit were observed. The maximum of the current solar cycle 24 is lower than the previous one, and the decline in solar and, therefore, heliospheric activity is expected to continue in the next cycle. In these conditions, it is important for an understanding of the process of GCR modulation in the heliosphere, as well as for applied purposes (evaluation of the radiation safety of planned space flights, etc.), to estimate quantitatively the possible GCR characteristics near the Earth in the upcoming solar minimum (~2019–2020). Our estimation is based on the prediction of the heliospheric characteristics that are important for cosmic ray modulation, as well as on numeric calculations of GCR intensity. Additionally, we consider the distribution of the intensity and other GCR characteristics in the heliosphere and discuss the intercycle variations in the GCR characteristics that are integral for the whole heliosphere (total energy, mean energy, and charge).     

Numerical algorithm for the dynamic analysis of base-isolated structures with dry friction

This paper deals with the techniques for solving ordinary differential equations with essential nonlinearity arising from the representation of frictional force by the sign function of the relative velocity. This problem is connected with dynamic behavior studies of base-isolated structures with dry friction devices.Mathematical evidence is presented concerning the inaccuracies of the solution which are connected with the representation of the frictional force by the sign function. An approximation of this sign model is made on the basis of the appropriate linearization of a small part of the frictional force function. A numerical algorithm for the dynamic analysis of base-isolated structures with dry friction is proposed. Numerical tests are carried out for establishing the exactness of the proposed techniques. The obtained results prove the accuracy of the techniques.     

Accuracy estimates for some global analytical models of the Earth’s main magnetic field on the basis of data on gradient magnetic surveys at stratospheric balloons

Two global analytical models of the main magnetic field of the Earth (MFE) have been used to determine their potential in deriving an anomalous MFE from balloon magnetic surveys conducted at altitudes of ～30 km. The daily mean spherical harmonic model (DMSHM) constructed from satellite data on the day of balloon magnetic surveys was analyzed. This model for the day of magnetic surveys was shown to be almost free of errors associated with secular variations and can be recommended for deriving an anomalous MFE. The error of the enhanced magnetic model (EMM) was estimated depending on the number of harmonics used in the model. The model limited by the first 13 harmonics was shown to be able to lead to errors in the main MFE of around 15 nT. The EMM developed to n = m = 720 and constructed on the basis of satellite and ground-based magnetic data fails to adequately simulate the anomalous MFE at altitudes of 30 km. To construct a representative model developed to m = n = 720, ground-based magnetic data should be replaced by data of balloon magnetic surveys for altitudes of ～30 km. The results of investigations were confirmed by a balloon experiment conducted by Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Moscow Aviation Institute.     

On a power series solution to the Boussinesq equation

For certain initial and boundary conditions the Boussinesq equation, a nonlinear partial differential equation describing the flow of water in unconfined aquifers, can be reduced to a boundary value problem for a nonlinear ordinary differential equation. Using Song et al.'s (2007) [7] approach, we show that for zero head initial condition and power-law flux boundary condition at the inlet boundary, the solution in the form of power series can be obtained with Barenblatt's (1990) [2] rescaling procedure applied to the power series solution obtained in Song et al. (2007) [7] for the power-law head boundary condition. Polynomial approximations can then be obtained by taking terms from the power series. Although for a small number of terms the newly obtained approximations may be worse than polynomial approximations obtained by other techniques, any desired accuracy can be achieved by taking more terms from the power series.     

Near-vertical seismic reflection image using a novel acquisition technique across the Vrancea Zone and Foscani Basin, south-eastern Carpathians (Romania)

The DACIA PLAN (Danube and Carpathian Integrated Action on Process in the Lithosphere and Neotectonics) deep seismic sounding survey was performed in August–September 2001 in south-eastern Romania, at the same time as the regional deep refraction seismic survey VRANCEA 2001. The main goal of the experiment was to obtain new information on the deep structure of the external Carpathians nappes and the architecture of Tertiary/Quaternary basins developed within and adjacent to the seismically-active Vrancea zone, including the Focsani Basin. The seismic reflection line had a WNW–ESE orientation, running from internal East Carpathians units, across the mountainous south-eastern Carpathians, and the foreland Focsani Basin towards the Danube Delta. There were 131 shot points along the profile, with about 1 km spacing, and data were recorded with stand-alone RefTek-125s (also known as “Texans”), supplied by the University Texas at El Paso and the PASSCAL Institute. The entire line was recorded in three deployments, using about 340 receivers in the first deployment and 640 receivers in each of the other two deployments. The resulting deep seismic reflection stacks, processed to 20 s along the entire profile and to 10 s in the eastern Focsani Basin, are presented here. The regional architecture of the latter, interpreted in the context of abundant independent constraint from exploration seismic and subsurface data, is well imaged. Image quality within and beneath the thrust belt is of much poorer quality. Nevertheless, there is good evidence to suggest that a thick (10 km) sedimentary basin having the structure of a graben and of indeterminate age underlies the westernmost part of the Focsani Basin, in the depth range 10–25 km. Most of the crustal depth seismicity observed in the Vrancea zone (as opposed to the more intense upper mantle seismicity) appears to be associated with this sedimentary basin. The sedimentary successions within this basin and other horizons visible further to the west, beneath the Carpathian nappes, suggest that the geometry of the Neogene and recent uplift observed in the Vrancea zone, likely coupled with contemporaneous rapid subsidence in the foreland, is detached from deeper levels of the crust at about 10 km depth. The Moho lies at a depth of about 40 km along the profile, its poor expression in the reflection stack being strengthened by independent estimates from the refraction data. Given the apparent thickness of the (meta)sedimentary supracrustal units, the crystalline crust beneath this area is quite thin (< 20 km) supporting the hypothesis that there may have been delamination of (lower) continental crust in this area involved in the evolution of the seismic Vrancea zone.