Probabilities of occurrence of great earthquakes in the Himalaya

Long-term conditional probabilities of occurrence of great earthquakes along the Himalaya plate boundary seismic zone have been estimated. The chance of occurrence of at least one great earthquake along this seismic zone over a period of 100 years (beginning the year 1999) is estimated to be about 0.89. The 100-year probability of such an earthquake occurring in the Kashmir seismic gap is about 0.27, in the central seismic gap about 0.52 and in the Assam gap about 0.21. The 25-year probabilities of their occurrence in these gaps are 0.07, 0.17, and 0.05 respectively. These probability estimates may be used profitably to assess the seismic hazard in the Himalaya and the adjoining Ganga plains.     

Petrological and mineralogical studies of Pan-African serpentinites at Bir Al-Edeid area, central Eastern Desert, Egypt

The studied serpentinites occur as isolated masses, imbricate slices of variable thicknesses and as small blocks or lenses incorporated in the sedimentary matrix of the mélange. They are thrusted over the associated island arc calc-alkaline metavolcanics and replaced by talc-carbonates along shear zones. Lack of thermal effect of the serpentinites upon the enveloping country rocks, as well as their association with thrust faults indicates their tectonic emplacement as solid bodies. Petrographically, they are composed essentially of antigorite, chrysotile and lizardite with subordinate amounts of carbonates, chromite, magnetite, magnesite, talc, tremolite and chlorite. Chrysotile occurs as cross-fiber veinlets traversing the antigorite matrix, which indicate a late crystallization under static conditions. The predominance of antigorite over other serpentine minerals indicates that the serpentinites have undergone prograde metamorphism or the parent ultramafic rocks were serpentinized under higher pressure. The parent rocks of the studied serpentinites are mainly harzburgite and less commonly dunite and wehrlite due to the prevalence of mesh and bastite textures. The serpentinites have suffered regional metamorphism up to the greenschist facies, which occurred during the collisional stage or back-arc basin closure, followed by thrusting over a continental margin. The microprobe analyses of the serpentine minerals show wide variation in SiO₂, MgO, Al₂O₃, FeO and Cr₂O₃ due to different generations of serpentinization. The clinopyroxene relicts, from the partly serpentinized peridotite, are augite and similar to clinopyroxene in mantle-derived peridotites. The chromitite lenses associated with the serpentinites show common textures and structures typical of magmatic crystallization and podiform chromitites. The present data suggest that the serpentinites and associated chromitite lenses represent an ophiolitic mantle sequence from a supra-subduction zone, which were thrust over the continental margins during the collisional stage of back-arc basin.     

A hypothesis of the Senoumi submarine megaslide in Suruga Bay in Japan—based on the undrained dynamic-loading ring shear tests and computer simulation

The distinctive bathymetric feature exists in the Suruga Bay, Japan. It has been called as Senoumi (Stone flower sea) from old times. Senoumi is a 30?km wide and 20?km long concave feature. Its origin has not been explained yet; however, the feature might be a combined consequence of intensive tectonic activity in the plate border, landslides, and a submarine flow coming from the Oi River. If the Senoumi was caused by a landslide, the latter would be larger than any on-land landslide in Japan. The downshelf “exit” from this feature is much narrower than its central part. This is not usual shape of landslides, but it is similar to the liquefied landslides such as those in quick clays which mobilize great strength reduction after failure. To study Senoumi as a landslide, the shear behaviors of the following three soil samples were investigated by the cyclic and seismic undrained stress control ring shear tests. One sample is volcanic ash taken from the base of landslide deposits (mass transport deposits), from 130 to 190?m deep layer below the submarine floor which was drilled and cored by the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 333. Another two samples are the Neogene silty–sand and silt taken from the Omaezaki hill adjacent to the Senoumi, because the shear zone might have been formed in Neogene layers extending from on-land to the continental shelf. The largest strength reduction from peak to steady-state shear resistance in the undrained cyclic loading test was found in volcanic ash. The strength reduction in Neogene silty–sand was smaller than volcanic ash, while the Neogene silt mobilized the least post-failure strength reduction. An integrated model simulating the initiation and motion of earthquake-induced rapid landslides (landslide simulation (LS)-RAPID, Sassa et al. Landslides 7–3:219–236, 2010) was applied to this study. The steady-state shear resistance and other geotechnical parameters measured by the undrained ring shear tests and the greatest strong motion record in the 2011 off-the-Pacific Coast of Tohoku earthquake (M _w 9.0), also known as “2011 Tohoku Earthquake” at the observation point MYG004 (2,933?gal) were input to this model. As the result, it was found that landslides would be triggered by 0.30–1.0 times of MYG004 in volcanic ash, 0.4–1.0 times of MYG004 in Neogene silty–sand and Neogene silt, though the depth and area of triggered landslides were different in soils and intensity of shaking. Feature, created by LS-RAPID using the parameters of volcanic ash, was most similar to the Senoumi in depth and extent. The result obtained from this study includes a hypothesis to be proved, but presents the strong need to investigate the risk of the large-scale submarine landslides which could enhance tsunami wave and possibly enlarge the submarine landslide retrogressively into the adjacent coastal plain by the upcoming mega earthquake in the Nankai Trough.     

Detection of iodine monoxide radicals in the marine boundary layer using laser induced fluorescence spectroscopy

A Laser Induced Fluorescence (LIF) instrument has been developed to detect iodine monoxide (IO) radicals in the atmosphere. An all solid-state Nd:YAG pumped Ti:Sapphire laser operating at approximately 445 nm was used to excite the (2,0) band of the IO A²Π_3/2 ← X²Π_3/2 electronic transition, with off-resonance fluorescence in the (2,5) band detected at 521 nm. The sensitivity of the instrument was determined by calibration. IO (between 10 and 150 pptV) was generated following the 184.9 nm photolysis of N₂O/CF₃I/N₂ mixtures with O₃ actinometry used to determine the photolysis flux. The detection limit was determined to be 0.3 pptV for a 300 s integration period, with an uncertainty of 23% (1σ). The instrument was deployed in August/September 2006 during the RHaMBLe (Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer) campaign in Roscoff, France. Located on a small jetty, a few metres from the water’s edge at high tide, the instrument measured significant levels of IO on 11 days, with a maximum of 27.6 ± 3.2 pptV observed on one day (averaged over 10 s) representing the highest IO mixing ratio recorded in the marine boundary layer to date. IO displayed a clear diurnal profile with a maximum at low tide during the daytime. These results represent the first point measurements of IO in the atmosphere by LIF.     

An Early Investigation Of The Striated Tail Of Comet Hale-Bopp (C/1995 O1)

The Sekanina-Farrell particle fragmentation model for the striated tails of dust comets is successfully applied to two images of comet Hale-Bopp to study the motions of 12 striae in a time span of March 12–15, 1997. There is evidence for recurring outbursts with a periodicity of 11^h21^m, consistent with results based on analysis of dust jets. The ejecta in all the striae appear to have been released from one source on the nucleus between the end of January and the second half of February 1997, some 60 to 40 days before perihelion. The parent particles were subjected to a radiation pressure acceleration of β_p ≃ 0.55 and their fragmentation lifetimes in 11 of the 12 striae were practically constant and equal to 13–15 days, when normalized to 1 AU from the Sun. Brief analysis of Watanabe et al.'s measurements of striae on their images from March 5–9, 1997 shows even shorter fragmentation lifetimes for the parent particles, mostly about 7–11 days at1 AU. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Rocky desertification and its causes in karst areas: a case study in Yongshun County,Hunan Province,China

Rocky desertification, a process of land degradation characterized by soil erosion and bedrock exposure, is one of the most serious land degradation problems in karst areas, and is regarded as an obstacle to local sustainable development. It is well known that human activities can accelerate rocky desertification; however, the effects of climate change on rocky desertification in karst areas are still unclear. This study focused on the effects of temperature and precipitation changes and human activities on rocky desertification in karst areas to determine the impacts of climate change and human disturbances on rocky desertification. Areas of different level of rocky desertification were obtained from Landsat TM (1987) and Landsat ETM+ (2000) images. The results show that, although the total desertification area increased by only 1.27% between 1987 and 2000, 17.73% of the slightly desertified land had degraded to a moderate or intense level, 2.01 and 15.71%, respectively. Meanwhile, between 1987 and 2000, the air temperature increased by 0.7°C, and precipitation increased by 170 mm. Statistical results indicate that the increase in precipitation was caused by heavy rainfall. In addition, under the interactive influences of heavy rainfall and temperature, the average karst dissolution rate was about 87 m³ km⁻² a⁻¹ during the 14 years in the study area. Further analysis indicated that rocky desertification was positively related with the increase in temperature and precipitation and especially with the heavy rainfall events. Climate change accelerated rocky desertification in the karst areas. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.