A ten-to-twelve year variation in the stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere

This review paper for STIB (Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction and the Biosphere; a proposed core project for IGBP) summarizes several features of a recently discovered 10–12 year oscillation in the atmosphere on the Northern Hemisphere. The oscillation is especially strong in the stratosphere during the warmer half of the year, but it is evident in the stratosphere and troposphere also in winter if the data are grouped according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation of the wind in the equatorial stratosphere. During the 40 years with data available to describe the oscillation it was phase locked with the 11-year solar cycle.Affiliate Scientist, NCAR.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Climatic and geographic factors affect ecosystem multifunctionality through biodiversity in the Tibetan alpine grasslands

Ecosystem multifunctionality(EMF), the simultaneous provision of multiple ecosystem functions, is often affected by biodiversity and environmental factors. We know little about how the interactions between biodiversity and environmental factors affect EMF. In this case study, a structural equation model was used to clarify climatic and geographic pathways that affect EMF by varying biodiversity in the Tibetan alpine grasslands. In addition to services related to carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling, forage supply, which is related to plantproductivity and palatability, was included in the EMF index. The results showed that 72% of the variation in EMF could be explained by biodiversity and other environmental factors. The ratio of palatable richness to all species richness explained 8.3% of the EMF variation. We found that air temperature, elevation, and latitude all affected EMF, but in different ways. Air temperature and elevation impacted the aboveground parts of the ecosystem, which included plant height, aboveground biomass, richness of palatable species, and ratio of palatable richness to all species richness. Latitude affected EMF by varying both aboveground and belowground parts of the ecosystem, which included palatable speciesrichness and belowground biomass. Our results indicated that there are still uncertainties in the biodiversity–EMF relationships related to the variable components of EMF, and climatic and geographic factors. Clarification of pathways that affect EMF using structural equation modeling techniques could elucidate the mechanisms by which environmental changes affect EMF.     

Regularized derivatives of potential fields and their role in semi-automated interpretation methods

Evaluation of higher derivatives (gradients) of potential fields plays an important role in geophysical interpretation (qualitative and/or quantitative), as has been demonstrated in many approaches and methods. On the other hand, numerical evaluation of higher derivatives is an unstable process – it has the tendency to enlarge the noise content in the original data (to degrade the signal-to-noise ratio). One way to stabilize higher derivative evaluation is the utilization of the Tikhonov regularization. In the submitted contribution we present the derivation of the regularized derivative filter in the Fourier domain as a minimization task by means of using the classical calculus of variations. A very important part of the presented approach is the selection of the optimum regularization parameter – we are using the analysis of the C-norm function (constructed from the difference between two adjacent solutions, obtained for different values of regularization parameter). We show the influence of regularized derivatives on the properties of the classical 3D Euler deconvolution algorithm and apply it to high-sensitivity magnetometry data obtained from an unexploded ordnance detection survey. The solution obtained with regularized derivatives gives better focused depth-estimates, which are closer to the real position of sources (verified by excavation of unexploded projectiles).     

Understanding the implications of the EU-LULUCF regulation for the wood supply from EU forests to the EU

Background

In June 2018, the European Parliament and Council of the European Union adopted a legislative regulation for incorporating greenhouse gas emissions and removals from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (EU-LULUCF) under its 2030 Climate and Energy Framework. The LULUCF regulation aim to incentivise EU Member States to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and increase removals in the LULUCF sector. The regulation, however, does not set a target for increasing the LULUCF carbon sink, but rather includes a ‘no net debit’ target for LULUCF (Forests and Agricultural soils). For Managed Forest Land (MFL) an accounting framework with capped credits for additional mitigation against a set forest reference level (FRL) was agreed for 2021–2030. The FRL gives the projected future carbon sink in the two compliance periods 2021–2025 and 2026–2030 under “continuation of forest management practices as they were in the reference period 2000–2009”. This FRL was disputed by some Member States as it was perceived to put a limit on their future wood harvesting from MFL. Here we simulated with the EFISCEN European forest model the “continuation of forest management practices” and determined the corresponding wood harvest for 26 EU countries under progressing age classes.

Results

The simulations showed that under “continuation of forest management practices” the harvest (wood removals) in the 26 EU countries as a whole can increase from 420 million m³/year in 2000–2009 to 560 million m³/year in 2050 due to progressing age classes. This implies there is a possibility to increase absolute wood harvests without creating debits compared to the forest reference level. However, the manner in which ‘continuation of forest management’ developed with a progressing age class development over time, meant that in some countries the future harvesting exceeded 90% of the increment. Since this generally is considered to be unsustainable we additionally set a harvesting cut-off as max 90% of increment to be harvested for each individual country as a possible interpretation of sustainability criteria that are included in the regulation. Using this additional limit the projected harvest will only increase to 493 million m³/year.

Conclusions

The worry from Member States (MS) that the FRL will prevent any additional harvesting seems unwarranted. Due to differences between Member States concerning the state of their forest resources, the FRL as a baseline for harvesting works out very differently for the different Member States. The FRL may have other unforeseen consequences which we discuss. Under all scenarios the living forest biomass sink shows a decline. This can be counteracted through incentivising measures under Climate Smart Forestry.

     

The cooling of flare produced plasmas in the solar corona

Solar flare X-rays, at energies less than 10 keV, are emitted by hot plasmas located in the corona. Three plasma cooling models are examined in detail. The cooling of the electrons by Coulomb collisions with ions at a lower temperature would require the observed material to occupy very large volumes. Cooling could take place by conduction or by radiation and observations are proposed which would allow the dominant cooling mechanism to be established.On leave during a portion of this work as University Research Fellow in Astronomy, University of Leicester, England.     

Scaling of response spectrum and duration for aftershocks

Aftershocks have the potential to cause collapse of a structure that has been already damaged by the preceding main shock. Seismic safety of a structure should therefore be ascertained through a damage analysis using the anticipated main shock and few larger-aftershock motions. Simulation of aftershock motions needs characterization of the seismic hazard due to aftershocks, and therefore it will be useful to develop a conditional scaling model that can predict the response spectrum of an anticipated aftershock motion consistent with the design spectrum of the main shock motion anticipated at the same station. In this study an attempt is made to develop a conditional scaling model for the pseudo spectral velocity spectrum via linear regression analysis on the aftershock and main shock recordings for the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake. It is shown that it may be possible to obtain a simpler and approximate version of the conditional model from an unconditional model. Damage-causing potential of a ground motion also depends on its strong motion duration (SMD) and therefore a conditional scaling model is developed for SMD of the aftershock motion in several narrow frequency-bands. The model is developed for the larger-aftershock motions and it is shown that a reasonable replacement of such a model may be obtainable directly from an unconditional model. Finally, a simple weighted averaging scheme is proposed to obtain the composite SMD from the SMDs for different frequency bands by using the pseudo spectral acceleration spectrum of the motion.     

An assessment of geologic sequestration potential in the panhandle of Florida USA

One alternative to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions is to store the emissions in underground geologic sequestration repositories. The efficacy of this approach has been favorably evaluated by numerous authors over the last 15 years. This paper discusses an assessment of the overall feasibility of storing emissions in three different repositories in the Florida panhandle located in the Southeastern United States. The feasibility assessment evaluates both saline aquifers and oil reservoirs located in the panhandle region. The overall feasibility is driven by the available geologic sequestration capacity, the transportation cost to deliver emissions to a respective repository, and other engineering and regulatory issues. The geologic sequestration capacity is generally controlled by the so-called storage efficiency, a variable dependent on the site-specific geology, reservoir conditions, and the injected fluid characteristics. For this paper, storage efficiency for saline repositories was assessed in more detail using numerical modeling. Based on the work completed, the 3 repositories studied have at least 4.55 gigatonnes of capacity to sequester CO₂.     

Solar activity dependence of interplanetary disturbances

Interplanetary scintillation measurements obtained inside 200 R using the Ooty Radio Telescope during August 1986–April 1991 have been analysed to study the interplanetary disturbances (or events) and their occurrence rates at various phases of the solar cycle. The disturbances are identified by the increase in the level of scintillation compared with the expected value. In total, 735 events have been identified. The results show a rate of 0.49 events per day near solar maximum and a low rate of 0.16 events per day during minimum of activity. The results are compared with coronal mass ejection (CME) rates and transients rates obtained from the Doppler scintillation measurements.     

Das Problem des Fazieswechsels in der Mitteltrias der Südtiroler Dolomiten

Ohne ZusammenfassungVortrag, gehalten in der Hauptversammlung der Geologischen Vereinigung in Frankfurt a. M., am 7. I. 1928. Ausführlichere Mitteilungen über dieses Thema werden im Rahmen einer größeren Abhandlung über die südalpine Mitteltrias an anderer Stelle veröffentlicht werden.