Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community

A technique to evaluate the risk of storm tides (the combination of a storm surge and tide) under present and enhanced greenhouse conditions has been applied to Cairns on the north-eastern Australian coast. The technique combines a statistical model for cyclone occurrence with a state-of-the-art storm surge inundation model and involves the random generation of a large number of storm tide simulations. The set of simulations constitutes a synthetic record of extreme sea-level events that can be analysed to produce storm tide return periods. The use of a dynamic storm surge model with overland flooding capability means that the spatial extent of flooding is also implicitly modelled. The technique has the advantage that it can readily be modified to include projected changes to cyclone behaviour due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Sea-level heights in the current climate for return periods of 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years have been determined to be 2.0 m, 2.3 m, 3.0 m and 3.4 m respectively. In an enhanced greenhouse climate (around 2050), projected increases in cyclone intensity and mean sea-level see these heights increase to 2.4 m, 2.8 m, 3.8 m and 4.2 m respectively. The average area inundated by events with a return period greater than 100 years is found to more than double under enhanced greenhouse conditions.     

Impact of horizontal resolution on prediction of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal using a regional weather prediction model

The present study is carried out to examine the performance of a regional atmospheric model in forecasting tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and its sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Two cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during the years 1995 and 1997, are simulated using a regional weather prediction model with two horizontal resolutions of 165 km and 55 km. The model is found to perform reasonably well towards simulation of the storms. The structure, intensity and track of the cyclones are found to be better simulated by finer resolution of the model as compared to the coarse resolution. Rainfall amount and its distribution are also found to be sensitive to the model horizontal resolution. Other important fields, viz., vertical velocity, horizontal divergence and horizontal moisture flux are also found to be sensitive to model horizontal resolution and are better simulated by the model with finer horizontal grids.     

Atomistic simulation of the structure and elastic properties of pyrite (FeS2) as a function of pressure

Interatomic potential parameters have been derived at simulated temperatures of 0 K and 300 K to model pyrite FeS₂. The predicted pyrite structures are within 1% of those determined experimentally, while the calculated bulk modulus is within 7%. The model is also able to simulate the properties of marcasite, even though no data for this phase were included in the fitting procedure. There is almost no difference in results obtained for pyrite using the two potential sets; however, when used to model FeS₂ marcasite, the potential fitted at 0 K performs better. The potentials have also been used to study the high-pressure behaviour of pyrite up to 44 GPa. The calculated equation of state gives good agreement with experiment and shows that the Fe–S bonds shorten more rapidly that the S–S dimer bonds. The behaviour of marcasite at high pressure is found to be similar to that of pyrite.     

Effect of the chemical composition of the crust on the metamorphic evolution of orogenic wedges

Petrological data provide a good record of the thermal structure of deeply eroded orogens, and, in principle, might be used to relate the metamorphic structure of an orogen to its deformational history. In this paper, we present two‐dimensional thermal modelling of various subduction models taking into account varying wedge geometry as well as variation of density and topography with metamorphic reactions. The models clearly show that rock type accreted in the wedge has important effects on the thermal regime of orogenic wedges. The thermal regime is dominated by radiogenic heat production. Material having high radioactive heat production, like the granodioritic upper crust, produces high temperature metamorphism (amphibolitic conditions). Material with low radioactive heat production results in low temperature metamorphism of greenschist or blueschist types depending on the thickness of the wedge. Application of this model to seemingly unrelated areas of the Central Alps (Lepontine Dome, Grisons) and Eastern Alps (Tauern Window) explains the coexistence and succession of distinct Barrovian and blueschist facies metamorphic conditions as the result of a single, continuous tectonic process in which the main difference is the composition of the incoming material in the orogenic wedge. Accretion of the European upper continental crust in the Lepontine and Tauern Domes produces Barrovian type metamorphism while accretion of oceanic sediments results in blueschist facies metamorphism in the Valaisan domain.     

Contrasting metamorphic evolution of metasedimentary rocks from the Çine and Selimiye nappes in the Anatolide belt, western Turkey

Abstract P–T conditions, mineral isograds, the relation of the latter to foliation planes and kinematic indicators are used to elucidate the tectonic nature and evolution of a shear zone in an orogen exhumed from mid‐crustal depths in western Turkey. Furthermore, we discuss whether simple monometamorphic fabrics of rock units from different nappes result from one single orogeny or are related to different orogenies. Metasedimentary rocks from the Çine and Selimiye nappes at the southern rim of the Anatolide belt of western Turkey record different metamorphic evolutions. The Eocene Selimiye shear zone separates both nappes. Metasedimentary rocks from the Çine nappe underneath the Selimiye shear zone record maximum P–T conditions of about 7 kbar and >550 °C. Metasedimentary rocks from the overlying Selimiye nappe have maximum P–T conditions of 4 kbar and c. 525 °C near the base of the nappe. Kinematic indicators in both nappes are related to movement on the Selimiye shear zone and consistently show a top‐S shear sense. Metamorphic grade in the Selimiye nappe decreases structurally upwards as indicated by mineral isograds defining the garnet‐chlorite zone at the base, the chloritoid‐biotite zone and the biotite‐chlorite zone at the top of the nappe. The mineral isograds in the Selimiye nappe run parallel to the regional S_R foliation, parallel the Selimiye shear zone and indicate that the Selimiye shear zone formed during this prograde greenschist to lower amphibolite facies metamorphic event but remained active after the peak of metamorphism. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar mica ages and the tectonometamorphic relationship with the Eocene Cyclades–Menderes thrust, which occurs above the Selimiye nappe in the study area, suggests an Eocene age of metamorphism in the Selimiye nappe. Metasedimentary rocks of the Çine nappe 20–30 km north of the Selimiye shear zone record maximum P–T conditions of 8–11 kbar and 600–650 °C. An age of about 550 Ma is indicated for amphibolite facies metamorphism and associated top‐N shear in the orthogneiss of the Çine nappe. Our study shows that simple monophase tectonometamorphic fabrics do not always indicate a simple orogenic development of a nappe stack. Preservation in some areas and complete overprinting of those fabrics in other areas apparently occur very heterogeneously.     

Permeability Estimation with the Augmented Lagrangian Method for a Nonlinear Diffusion Equation

We consider numerical identification of the piecewise constant permeability function in a nonlinear parabolic equation, with the augmented Lagrangian method. By studying this problem, we aim at also gaining some insight into the potential ability of the augmented Lagrangian method to handle permeability estimation within the full two-phase porous-media flow setting. The identification is formulated as a constrained minimization problem. The parameter estimation problem is reduced to a coupled nonlinear algebraic system, which can be solved efficiently with the conjugate gradient method. The methodology is developed and numerical experiments with the proposed method are presented.     

Tectonic controls on metamorphism, partial melting, and intrusion: timing and duration of regional metamorphism and magmatism in the Ni de Massif, Turkey

Mafic high-pressure granulite, eclogite and pyroxenite xenoliths have been collected from a Mesozoic volcaniclastic diatreme in Xinyang, near south margin of the Sino-Korean Craton (SKC). The high-pressure granulite xenoliths are mainly composed of fine-grained granoblasts of Grt+Cpx+Pl+Hbl±Kfs±Q±Ilm with relict porphyritic mineral assemblage of Grt+Cpx±Pl±Rt. P–T estimation indicates that the granoblastic assemblage crystallized at 765–890 °C and 1.25–1.59 GPa, corresponding to crustal depths of ca. 41–52 km with a geotherm of 75–80 mW/m². Calculated seismic velocities (V_p) of high-pressure granulites range from 7.04 to 7.56 km/s and densities (D) from 3.05 to 3.30 g/cm³. These high-pressure granulite xenoliths have different petrographic and geochemical features from the Archean mafic granulites. Elevated geotherm and petrographic evidence imply that the lithosphere of this craton was thermally disturbed in the Mesozoic prior to eruption of the host diatreme. These samples have sub-alkaline basaltic compositions, equivalent to olivine– and quartz–tholeiite. REE patterns are flat to variably LREE-enriched (La_N/Yb_N=0.98–9.47) without Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu*=0.95–1.11). They possess 48–127 ppm Ni and 2–20 ppm Nb with Nb/U and La/Nb ratios of 13–54 and 0.93–4.75, respectively, suggesting that these high-pressure granulites may be products of mantle-derived magma underplated and contaminated at the base of the lower crust. This study also implies that up to 10 km Mesozoic lowermost crust was delaminated prior to eruption of the Cenozoic basalts on the craton.     

Estimation of causative fault parameters of the Rudbar earthquake of June 20, 1990 from near field SH-wave data

We analyze the strong motion accelerograms recorded for the large (M_S=7.7, M_W=7.3, m_b=6.4) Rudbar earthquake of June 20, 1990. The earthquake had a complex source process. We have identified the imprints of rupture of three localized asperities on the major causative fault on the accelerograms. These asperities are interpreted to correspond to (i) the main shock that initiated the rupture process and was located in the domino block between the Kabateh and Zard Goli faults, (ii) a foreshock that occurred about 10 s earlier in the Kabateh fault and (iii) a later shock, on the western end of the Baklor fault, which terminated the bilateral rupture process at the western end. We estimate the strike, dip and slip of these causative sub-event rupture planes using the SH spectral amplitudes, based on a point source representation of sub-events and a non-linear least square formulation for inversion of the amplitude data. The results of our inversion of the near field data are comparable to other studies based on teleseismic data.