Modelling the impact of a hypothetical sub-Plinian eruption at La Soufrière of Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles)

This paper describes the development and application of an impact model for a future hypothetical sub-Plinian eruption of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe. The model was designed to assess the impact from either a single or multiple eruption scenarios, each defined in terms of a map of the intensity of three volcanic hazards; volcanogenic earthquake, tephra fallout and pyroclastic density currents. The impact from the three hazards can be assessed independently or alternatively the joint impact of the three hazards can be assessed. The outputs that are produced from the model are; the number of buildings with collapsed roofs, and the number of fatal and non-fatal casualties.     

Spatial inhomogeneity of variations in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript> layer critical frequencies under the conditions of winter 1995

The daily samples of the hourly measurements of the foF2 critical frequency, obtained on January 5–21, 1995, at the midlatitude and high-latitude automated ionospheric stations (geographic latitude higher than 60°), are considered. The {fo} sets are transformed into the {δfoF2} sets of relative variations, for which asymmetry (A) and excess (E) are calculated. The selected stations are grouped into 20 pairs of automated ionospheric stations (AISs) located at distances of 200–10 000 km from one another. Sign estimates of the cross-correlation coefficients between the sets of 16 A and E values for different pairs of stations are used. Two types of structures of the statistical invariant spatial distribution are established: the structures with a scale of about 300 km, invariant with respect to latitude, and with a scale of about 6000 km (for only high latitudes).     

Cenozoic geodynamic evolution of the Andaman–Sumatra subduction margin: Current understanding

The Andaman–Sumatra margin displays a unique set‐up of extensional subduction–accretion complexes, which are the Java Trench, a tectonic (outer arc) prism, a sliver plate, a forearc, oceanic rises, inner‐arc volcanoes, and an extensional back‐arc with active spreading. Existing knowledge is reviewed in this paper, and some new data on the surface and subsurface signatures for operative geotectonics of this margin is analyzed. Subduction‐related deformation along the trench has been operating either continuously or intermittently since the Cretaceous. The oblique subduction has initiated strike–slip motion in the northern Sumatra–Andaman sector, and has formed a sliver plate between the subduction zone and a complex, right‐lateral fault system. The sliver fault, initiated in the Eocene, extended through the outer‐arc ridge offshore from Sumatra, and continued through the Andaman Sea connecting the Sagaing Fault in the north. Dominance of regional plate dynamics over simple subduction‐related accretionary processes led to the development and evolution of sedimentary basins of widely varied tectonic character along this margin. A number of north–south‐trending dismembered ophiolite slices of Cretaceous age, occurring at different structural levels with Eocene trench‐slope sediments, were uplifted and emplaced by a series of east‐dipping thrusts to shape the outer‐arc prism. North–south and east–west strike–slip faults controlled the subsidence, resulting in the development of a forearc basins and record Oligocene to Miocene–Pliocene sedimentation within mixed siliciclastic–carbonate systems. The opening of the Andaman Sea back‐arc occurred in two phases: an early (～11 Ma) stretching and rifting, followed by spreading since 4–5 Ma. The history of inner‐arc volcanic activity in the Andaman region extends to the early Miocene, and since the Miocene arc volcanism has been associated with an evolution from felsic to basaltic composition.     

Intercomparison of the total storage deficit index (TSDI) over two Canadian Prairie catchments

Retrieval of the terrestrial moisture storage dataset from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite remote sensing system is possible when the catchment of interest is of large spatial scale. These dataset are of paramount importance for the estimation of the total storage deficit index (TSDI), which enables the characterization of a particular drought event from the perspective of the terrestrial moisture storage over that catchment. Incidentally, the GRACE gravity signal over the 13,000 km² Upper Assiniboine River Basin on the drought-prone Canadian Prairie is so poor therefore making the computation of the total storage deficit index for this basin infeasible. Consequently, the estimation of the terrestrial moisture storage from other reliable sources becomes imperative in order to enable the computation of the TSDI over this basin.This study explores the utilization of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a physically based, spatially distributed hydrologic model to simulate the total moisture storage over the Upper Assiniboine River Basin which was then employed in the estimation of the TSDI over this basin for subsequent characterization of the recent Prairie-wide drought. Interestingly, the temporal patterns in the computed TSDI from the VIC model reveal a strong resemblance with the same drought characterization undertaken over the larger adjacent Saskatchewan River Basin, which was accomplished utilizing terrestrial moisture storage from the GRACE-based approach. Additionally, these independent techniques employed in the characterization of the last Prairie drought over the two adjacently situated basins resulted in similar drought severity classification from the standpoint of the total moisture storage deficits over these basins. This study has therefore shown that in the computation of the total storage deficit index over small-scale catchments during anomalous climatic conditions that propagate extreme dryness through the terrestrial hydrologic systems, simulations of the total water storage from a structurally sound model such as the VIC model could be resourceful for the computation of the monthly total storage deficit index if no constraint is placed on the availability of accurate meteorological forcing.     

CALCULATIONS ON THE THERMAL CONDITIONS AROUND A SALT DIAPIR*

Temperature modeling around the Vejrum salt structure in Denmark shows that the heat flow near the top is twice the regional heat flow. The temperature in the vicinity of the top of the diapir is thus anomalously high. Overlying permeable formations could therefore be attractive for geothermal energy exploitation. A negative temperature anomaly of ?20°C is calculated around the root of the salt body. Comparisons between calculated and measured temperatures are used to test the model. It is shown that measurements of heat flow (or temperature gradients) in wells penetrating the region of groundwater circulation could be used in identification of salt diapirs.     

COMPUTER MODELING OF VERTICAL SEISMIC PROFILING*

There are numerous modeling techniques commonly employed for the computer simulation of seismic wave propagation. The capabilities of these techniques vary according to the theoretical foundations and subsequent approximations upon which the algorithms are based. This paper constitutes a comparative review of seven modeling methods: geometric ray theory, asymptotic ray theory, generalized ray theory, Kirchhoff wave theory, Fourier synthesis, finite differences, and finite elements. These methods can be categorized as ray or wave, acoustic or elastic, and can be contrasted according to their relative abilities to simulate such behavior as wave interference effects, diffractions, and mode conversions. As is implied by their names, geometric ray theory and asymptotic ray theory are both ray methods. The other five methods provide wave theory simulations. Geometric ray theory and Kirchhoff wave theory are normally implemented in acoustic form, while the other methods are readily adapted for computing elastic theory solutions. Generalized ray theory and Fourier synthesis are more limited in the complexity of geological model they can accommodate than are the other techniques. The methods which typically demand the greatest computer resources are the finite-difference and the finite-element techniques. All methods can incorporate at least some multiple events. Diffractions, however, are only inherent in the solutions computed by Kirchhoff wave theory, finite differences and finite elements. Attenuation is readily incorporated in both the Fourier synthesis and the finite-element methods. As an example of the application of seismic modeling, a geological model representative of a typical petroleum exploration target is used to compare vertical seismic profiles calculated by different modeling methods.     

Human influence upon sedimentation in Llangorse Lake,Wales

Palaeolimnological studies at Llangorse Lake, Wales, constitute part of the British contribution to IGCP Project 158 (The Palaeohydrology of the Temperate Zone in the Last 15000 Years). The lake has been adopted as the Reference Site for the South Wales region under Subproject 158B (Lake and Mire Environments) and is located in the Reference Area for Britain: the Severn Basin. Results of biological, physical, and multielement chemical analyses on a 12.35 m Livingstone core are presented and compared with previous analyses on short Mackereth cores taken from two troughs in the lake basin. Human impact upon post-glacial sedimentation is assessed with reference to sediment chemistry, physical properties, and sedimentation rates, based on relative pollen, ¹⁴C, and ²¹⁰Pb dating. Vegetational history of the catchment is inferred from a pollen diagram for a section of the core from c. 8 to 6.75 m depth in which evidence for human impact is first apparent. Water content, loss on ignition, and carbonate content are presented for the whole core; density, water content, loss on ignition, carbonates, and elemental analyses of P, Ca, Mg, K, Ti, Al, Fe, and Mn for the interval 6 75 and 8.25 m depth. Sedimentation rates were low during Boreal and Atlantic times (c. 9000- 5000 BP), rose significantly from the time of the elm decline (estimated at 5000 BP) and increased further at c. 1800 BP when nekron muds were succeeded by deposition of silty clay. Inferred rates of erosion of soils from the catchment are discussed and related to sediment chemistry.     

On love wave dispersion in a homogeneous layer lying over a laterally heterogeneous half-space

A method is proposed for the determination of the dispersion equation of Love waves propagating in a homogeneous layer lying over a laterally inhomogeneous half-space. The proposed method can be made to work only when the lateral inhomogeneities in the lower half-space are finite in nature so that their Fourier transforms are available. As an illustration the dispersion equation of Love waves is obtained for one of such media in which the shear-wave velocity and the rigidity in the lower half-space either increases or decreases along the direction of propagation of waves according as the parameter of heterogeneity is positive or negative.     

A Sm-Nd isotopic study of atmospheric dusts and particulates from major river systems

¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios, and Sm and Nd abundances, are reported for particulates from major and minor rivers of the Earth, continental sediments, and aeolian dusts collected over the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. Overall, Sm/Nd ratios and Nd isotopic compositions in contemporary continental erosion products vary within the small ranges of ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd= 0.115 ± 0.01 and¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd= 0.51204 ± 0.0002 (ε_Nd = −11.4 ± 4). The average period of residence in the continental crust is estimated to be1.70 ± 0.35Ga.

These results combined with data from the literature have implications for the age, history, and composition of the sedimentary mass and the continental crust: (1) The average “crustal residence age” of the whole sedimentary mass is about 1.9 Ga. (2) The range of Nd isotope compositions in the continent derived particulate input to the oceans is the same as Atlantic sediments and seawater, but lower than those of the Pacific, demonstrating the importance of Pacific volcanism to Pacific Nd chemistry. (3) The average ratio of Sm/Nd is about 0.19 in the upper continental crust, and has remained so since the early Archean. This precludes the likelihood of major mafic to felsic or felsic to mafic trends in the overall composition of the upper continental crust through Earth history. (4) Sediments appear to be formed primarily by erosion of continental crust having similar Sm/Nd ratios, rather than by mixing of mafic and felsic compositions. (5) The average ratio of ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd≈ 0.5117 (ε_Nd ≈ −17) in the upper continental crust, assuming its mean age is about 2 Ga. (6) The uniformity of the SmNd isotopic systematics in river and aeolian particulates primarily reflects efficient recycling of old sediment by sedimentary processes on a short time scale compared to the amount of time the material has resided in the crust.