aiNet- and GIS-based regional prediction system for the spatial and temporal probability of rainfall-triggered landslides

We developed a real-time forecasting system, aiNet-GISPSRIL, for evaluating the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides. In this system, the aiNet (a kind of artificial neutral network based on a self-organizing system) and GIS are merged for integrating the rainfall conditions into various environmental factors that influence the landslide occurrence and for simulating the complex non-linear relationships between landslide occurrence and its related conditions. Zhejiang Province (101,800 km² in area), located in the southeast coastal region of China, is highly prone to the occurrence of landslides during intensive rainfall. Since 2003, the aiNet-GISPSRIL has been used to predict landslides during the rainy seasons in the region. The aiNet-GISPSRIL uses the regional 24-h forecast rainfall information and the real-time rainfall monitoring data from the rain-gauge network as its inputs, and then provides 24-h forecast of the landslide probability for every 1 × 1-km grid cell within the region. Verification studies on the performance of the aiNet-GISPSRIL show that the system has successfully predicted the dates and localities of 304 landslides (accounting for 66.2% of reported landslides during the period). During the period from 2003 to 2007, because the system provided the probability levels of landslide occurrences up to 24-h in advance, gave locations of potential landslides, and timely warned those individuals at high-risk areas, more than 1700 persons living in the risk sites had been evacuated to safe ground before the landslides occurred and thus casualty was avoided. This highly computerized, easy-operating system can be used as a prototype for developing forecasting systems in other regions that are prone to rainfall-triggered landslides.     

Estimates of non-tidal exchange transport between the Sea of Okhotsk and the North Pacific

The outflow from the Sea of Okhotsk to the North Pacific is important in characterising the surface-to-intermediate-depth water masses in the Pacific Ocean. The two basins are separated by the Kuril Islands with numerous straits, among which the Bussol and the Kruzenshterna Straits are deeper than 1000 m. The physics governing the transport between the two basins is complicated, but when the semidiurnal and diurnal tides are subtracted, the observed density and velocity structures across the Bussol Strait suggest a significant contribution from geostrophic balance. Using a two-layer model with the interface at 27.5σ _θ , part of the upper layer transport that is not driven by tides is estimated using two previously unexplored data sets: outputs from the Ocean General Circulation Model for Earth Simulator (OFES), and historical hydrographic data. The Pacific water flows into the Sea of Okhotsk through the northeastern straits. The greatest inflow is through the Kruzenshtern Strait, but the OFES results show that the contributions from other shallower straits are almost half of the Kruzenshtern inflow. Similarly, the outflow from the Sea of Okhotsk is through the southwestern straits of the Kuril Islands with the largest Bussol Strait contributing 60% of the total outflow. The OFES and hydrographic estimates agree that the exchange is strongest in February to March, with an inflow of about −6 to −12 Sv (negative indicates the flow from the North Pacific, 1 Sv = 10⁶ m³s⁻¹), and an outflow from the Sea of Okhotsk of about +8 to +9 Sv (positive indicates the flow from the Sea of Okhotsk), which is weakest in summer (−3 to +1 Sv through the northeastern straits and +0 to +3 Sv through the southwestern straits). The estimated seasonal variation is consistent with a simple analytic model driven by the difference in sea surface height between the two basins.     

Long-Term Changes of Polar Activity of the Sun

We discuss long-time changes of polar activity of the Sun using the new observational data sets in the optical range during 1872–2001. A study of the secular and cycle variations of the magnetic activity at the high-latitude regions is the main goal that includes polar magnetic field reversals during 1872–2001 and secular changes of the duration of polar activity cycles. The secular increase of the area of polar zones during the minimum activity in the last 120 years and as consequence a decrease of coronal temperature of the Sun in the high-latitude zones during the last 50 years. Correlation between the polar cycles of Caii-K bright points with the Wolf sunspot numbers cycles, W(t), and the 22-year polar magnetic cycles of Caii-K bright points at the high latitudes during 1905–1995 is discussed.     

The evolution of binary fractions in globular clusters

We study the evolution of binary stars in globular clusters using a new Monte Carlo approach combining a population synthesis code ( startrack ) and a simple treatment of dynamical interactions in the dense cluster core using a new tool for computing three- and four-body interactions ( fewbody ). We find that the combination of stellar evolution and dynamical interactions (binary–single and binary–binary) leads to a rapid depletion of the binary population in the cluster core. The maximum binary fraction today in the core of a typical dense cluster such as 47 Tuc, assuming an initial binary fraction of 100 per cent, is only ∼ 5–10 per cent. We show that this is in good agreement with recent Hubble Space Telescope observations of close binaries in the core of 47 Tuc, provided that a realistic distribution of binary periods is used to interpret the results. Our findings also have important consequences for the dynamical modelling of globular clusters, suggesting that 'realistic models' should incorporate much larger initial binary fractions than has usually been the case in the past.     

“Karelian Lakes” expert system: 3. Model approach to studying fish communities

The final work on the development of an expert system for the assessment of the state and the rational use of lake??s resources is presented. A block of expert system for the assessment of ichthyocenoses is described. For this purpose, databases and knowledge bases on 12 species of most abundant Karelian fishes were used and a model of community, based on the principle of trophic chain, was proposed. The system was developed for water bodies with different compositions of ichthyocenoses and different food and abiotic conditions. The model makes it possible to assess the ichthyomasses and age structure of populations and to determine the rational ways to commercial use of the community for maximizing the catches with the preservation of biodiversity.     

Light curves of SZ Piscium for 1977 and 1978

We present a relatively completeV-band light curve of SZ Psc for 1978 and a partial light curve for 1977. From the 1978 light curve we derive a new time of primary minimum, JD2443823.674±0.001, and a Russell-model solution,i=75°.8±0°.1,r _h =0.096±0.003,r _c =0.351±0.001, andL _h =0.253±0.002. The hotter component of this system is a F5-8 main-sequence star, the cooler component a K3-4 star well above the main sequence. The system is detached with the larger component filling only 82% of its Roche lobe. The distortion wave in this RS CVn-type binary seems not to migrate regularly as do those in many other such systems, but rather seems to change phase and amplitude more erratically. Between 1977 and 1978 its phase stayed practically constant while its amplitude decreased by a factor of three. We discuss the implications of this behavior for the spot model of RS CVn-type activity. We find that the traditional comparison star for SZ Psc, HD 219018, is very likely a constant star contrary to a recent suggestion that it is variable. Its brightness and colors,V=7.705, (B-V)=0.628, and (V-I) _c =0.688, are those of a G2V star.Visiting Astronomer, Kitt Peak National Observatory, which is operated by AURA, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation, and Visiting Astronomer, Prarie Observatory, University of Illinois.     

中国水土保持研究回顾

The preservation and sustainable development of soil and water resources is one of the basic principles for the development of China. Throughout the course of history, all the social improvement and economic development are deeply concerned with soil loss and ecological environmental protection. It is now a common sense that soil and water conservation is the safety insurance for national ecology and its development. For the past long period of time, soil and water loss has been recognized as “the No. 1 killer“ to the ecological environment. The nation is on the stage of the critical conditions for its development. China has massive mountain and upland area with complicated geological conditions and accelerated human destruction and serious soil and water loss.Based on rich historical documents, renovating experience and detailed analysis of the data collected in field experiments and field surveys for soil and water conservation, this paper aims to review the general characteristics of soil and water loss, to explore the relationship between soil and water conservation and sustainable economic development, and to provide relevant strategies for soil and water conservation in China.     

Spatial coherency analysis of seismic ground motions from a rock site dense array implemented during the Kefalonia 2014 aftershock sequence

The objective of studies presented in this paper is to analyse the spatial incoherency of seismic ground motions using signals from a velocimeter dense array located on a rock site, recording the aftershock sequence of the two M6 Kefalonia earthquakes that occurred in January/February 2014 (Kefalonia island, Greece). The analyses are carried out with both horizontal and vertical components of velocigrams for small separation distances of stations (<100 m). The coherencies of seismic ground motions identified from strong motion windows are compared with those identified from coda parts of signals. It is realized that there is no significant difference between the coherencies estimated from those two parts of signals. The influence of earthquake event number on the result of coherencies and the dispersions of coherencies estimated from different earthquake events are presented. Finally, coherencies estimated from the dense array are compared with several coherency models proposed and widely used in the literature. The possibility of modifying some parameters of those existing coherency models to fit with in situ coherencies are discussed and presented. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

X-Ray Line Transfer in Plasmas with Large Velocity Gradients

An astrophysically relevant experiment is compared to the output of a multidimensional radiation transfer code in which populations and radiation are self-consistently treated. Experimental Al Ly α spectra obtained with a very high-resolution spectrometer are presented as quantitative evidence of dot plasma non-planar expansion. Analysis of these spectra using the code is performed, in particular examining the effects of velocity gradients in directions other than that of the primary expansion. These calculations are found to be in good agreement with the experimental results. Usage of the Ly α doublet as a planarity diagnostic is discussed.     

Particle composition and size distributions in and around a deep-pit swine operation,Ames, IA

The contribution of emissions from agricultural facilities is rapidly becoming a major concern for local and regional air quality. Characterization of particle properties such as physical size distribution and chemical composition can be valuable in understanding the processes contributing to emissions and ultimate fate of particulate matter from agricultural facilities. A measurement campaign was conducted at an Iowa, deep-pit, three-barn swine finishing facility to characterize near-source ambient particulate matter. Size-specific mass concentrations were determined using minivol samplers, with additional size distribution information obtain using optical particle counters. Particulate composition was determined via ion chromatographic analysis of the collected filters. A thermal-CO₂ elemental/organic carbon analyzer measured particulate carbon. The chemical composition and size distribution of sub-micron particles were determined via real-time aerosol mass spectrometry. Primary particulate was not found to be a major emission from the examined facility, with filter-based impactor samples showing average near-source increases (~15–50 m) in ambient PM₁₀ of 5.8 ± 2.9 μg m⁻³ above background levels. PM_2.5 also showed contribution attributable to the facility (1.7 ± 1.1 μg m⁻³). Optical particle counter analysis of the numerical size distributions showed bimodal distributions for both the upwind and downwind conditions, with maximums around 2.5 μm and below the minimum quantified diameter of 0.3 μm. The distributions showed increased numbers of coarse particles (PM₁₀) during periods when wind transport came from the barns, but the differences were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The PM₁₀ aerosols showed statistically increased concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, calcium, organic carbon, and elemental carbon when the samplers were downwind from the pig barns. Organic carbon was the major constituent of the barn-impacted particulate matter in both sub-micron (54%) and coarse size (20%) ranges. The AMS PM₁ chemical speciation showed similar species increases, with the exception of and Ca⁺², the latter not quantified by the AMS.