Macroseismic effects of the north-Italian earthquake of May 6th, 1976, on the territory of Czechoslovakia

Summary The method of treatment of the macroseismic data obtained on the territory of the CSSR after the main 1976 Friuli earthquake is described and the preliminary results are confronted with the geologic structure.     

Statistical modelling of the main features of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Artemisia</Emphasis> pollen season in Wrocław,Poland, during the 2002–2011 time period

The aim of this article is to present statistical forecasting models concerning the dynamics of Artemisia pollen seasons in Wroc?aw, including the start and end, the date of maximum pollen concentration and seasonal pollen index (SPI). For statistical evaluation, use was made of aerobiological and meteorological data from the last 10 years (2002–2011). Based on this data, agroclimatic indicators, i.e. crop heat units (CHUs), were determined for various averaging periods. The beginning of the Artemisia pollen season in the studied time period, on average, took place on 23 June. Its length usually varied between 26 and 45 days, and maximum daily concentrations occurred between 31 July and 18 August. It was found that the beginning of the pollen season depends, above all, on the values of CHUs and photothermal unit (PTU) (p?<?0.05) in the period from March to June, for various thermal thresholds. The date of maximum daily concentration correlates with sunshine duration, PTU and air temperature for June and July (p?<?0.05). On the other hand, SPI is connected with thermal variables, i.e. average, maximum and minimum air temperatures and CHUs and heliothermal unit (HTU) for July (p?<?0.05) and the beginning of spring. Based on the correlation analysis and the chosen variables, regression models for the beginning date of Artemisia pollen season and SPI were prepared, which were then verified by using leave-one-out cross-validation. A better fit between modelled and actual values was found for the analysis concerning the season start date than for the SPI.     

Economics of the Kyoto Protocol for Russia

Abstract

In this article we propose a careful analysis of the economic consequences of the Kyoto Protocol for Russia, taking into account the most recently available data and the latest developments in the trends regarding Russian economic recovery. We present a review of different GHG forecasts for Russia and develop a new forecast for uncertain GDP growth and changing elasticity of GHG emission per GDP. Since the rate of growth remains uncertain, elasticity could change over time, as well as the fuel mix. We apply the Monte-Carlo method to simulate these uncertainties and to produce a reasonable interval for CO₂ emissions in 2010. The probability of Russia exceeding its Kyoto emissions budget is essentially zero. Further, we discuss the benefits for Russia from the Kyoto Protocol, and more generally from implementation of GHG mitigation policy. Ancillary benefits from Kyoto Protocol implementation will bring essential reductions in risk to human health. On the other hand, potential negative changes in the fuel mix and GDP structure, as well as a slowing of the innovation process, could exacerbate existing health problems. Alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol may bring much tougher commitments to Russia. We conclude that the Kyoto Protocol is the best possible deal for Russia. Therefore, Russia most will ratify it.     

Comparison of selected biomarkers in flounder (Platichthys flesus L.) from the Douro (Portugal) and Vistula (Poland) River estuaries

Sixty female flounder (Platichthys flesus) were collected in Autumn 2011, 15 from each of the following sampling sites: at the mouths of the Douro and Vistula Rivers, and at nearby open sea locations. The aim of the study was to assess several biomarkers in the two geographically distant regions. Hepatic EROD, GST, SOD, GPx, POx, LP; muscular AChE, BChE, LP; and branchial Na⁺/K⁺-ATPase were analysed. Moreover, BTI, PY, and three gross morphometric indices were calculated. The results were analysed with t-test, ANOVA, and PCA. Many differences were found between the open sea sites and the river mouths, mainly in Portugal, and between the two rivers. Salinity and pollution seem to be the main factors that affected the biomarkers. Effects of chronic pollution were observed at the river mouths, and an indication of a possible temporary exposure to pollutants was found at the open ocean site in Portugal.     

An interglacial polar bear and an early Weichselian glaciation at Poolepynten,western Svalbard

The recent discovery of a subfossil polar bear (Ursus maritimus) jawbone in the Poolepynten coastal cliff sequence, western Svalbard, and its implications for the natural history of the polar bear motivated an effort to better constrain the environmental history and age envelope of the Poolepynten sediment sequence. The focus of the present study is on the lithostratigraphy of the coastal cliffs and on re‐dating the sequence using the Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating technique. We report a revised lithostratigraphy and nine new OSL ages. It is concluded that the Poolepynten sequence contains evidence of four regional glaciation events, recorded in the strata as erosional unconformities or glacial deposits followed by shallow‐marine deposition signifying transgressions and subsequent glacio‐isostatic rebound and regression. Our OSL ages refine previous age determinations (¹⁴C and IRSL) and support the interpretation that the subfossil polar bear jawbone is probably of last interglacial (Eemian) age.     

Heat and mass flow associated with a freezing front

A one-dimensional mathematical model for heat and moisture flow in saturated porous materials is given. The model is formulated using capillary theory and depends upon the inter-relationship between pore radius, freezing point depression and the cryogenic suction. The conditions at the frost line include a criterion which determines whether heave and/or penetration of the frost line occurs.

Numerical results are given which were computed using an expanding—contracting finite-difference approximation. These results compare well with temperature and heave measurements made in the laboratory using a precise freezing cell.