On the control of subantarctic stratification by the ocean circulation

Climate Dynamics - A shallow mixed layer depth bias in Austral winter in the Subantarctic Zone is a common feature of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models, including the Community...     

Metabolised Tritium and Radiocarbon in Lichens and Their Use as Biomonitors

Lichens are now well known for their potential as bio-indicators of environmental pollution, but less is known about their suitability as quantitative biomonitors for atmospheric emissions of tritium (mainly as tritiated water, HTO) and radiocarbon (as ¹⁴CO₂) from nuclear facilities, although both radionuclides could result in non-trivial individual or collective radiation doses due to their high environmental mobility and their long half-lives. ³H and ¹⁴C are fixed in lichens mainly by the photosynthesis of the algal partner and then stored in the organic molecules of both alga and fungus. They have the advantage of allowing the monitoring of atmospheric water vapour without interference of soil water or soil organic substances as long as soil-inhabiting species are avoided. Lichens were collected in the surroundings of (military and civil) nuclear facilities, in areas away from any direct source of contamination and some were transplanted from a contaminated area to a non-contaminated one. The influence of the nuclear facilities can be clearly traced, sometimes in a spectacular way and the first results of analyses after transplants give a base for estimating the effective half-life of ³H in lichens.     

Experimental bleaching of a tropical sea anemone in situ

Bleaching (whitening) of cnidarians such as corals and sea anemones has caused widespread degradation of coral reefs around the world and is therefore an urgent issue for coral reef science and conservation. Although cnidarians often bleach in aquaria, methods for experimental induction of bleaching in wild cnidarians are lacking, which impedes scientists’ ability to understand the ultimate effects of bleaching on the broader ecosystem. In this study, we investigated the utility of an in situ method for experimental induction of bleaching in the tropical sea anemone Heteractis crispa. Healthy, wild anemones were covered with opaque black plastic sheets, mesh cages or left undisturbed (controls) and tentacle colour and body size were monitored with a colour reference card and flexible tape, respectively, every 1–3 days for 15 days. Caged and control anemones remained unchanged for the duration of the experiment, but covered anemones commenced whitening after 4–6 days and were completely white after 7–14 days (mean time to bleaching ± SE = 10.1 ± 0.7 days). Experimental bleaching occurred without reduction in anemone body size and was visibly similar to natural bleaching seen previously in H. crispa. We hypothesize that light‐deprivation, reduced water flow, physical contact or some combination of these factors caused the bleaching. This study provides the basis for a simple and rapid method of inducing bleaching in situ, which releases scientists’ dependence on sporadic natural bleaching events or artificial aquarium experiments, and provides a means to investigate the effects of bleaching on other ecosystem components such as fishes.     

Quantifying initial and wind forcing uncertainties in the Gulf of Mexico

This study aims at analyzing the combined impact of uncertainties in initial conditions and wind forcing fields in ocean general circulation models (OGCM) using polynomial chaos (PC) expansions. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) are used to formulate both spatial perturbations to initial conditions and space-time wind forcing perturbations, namely in the form of a superposition of modal components with uniformly distributed random amplitudes. The forward deterministic HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used to propagate input uncertainties in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) in spring 2010, during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and to generate the ensemble of model realizations based on which PC surrogate models are constructed for both localized and field quantities of interest (QoIs), focusing specifically on sea surface height (SSH) and mixed layer depth (MLD). These PC surrogate models are constructed using basis pursuit denoising methodology, and their performance is assessed through various statistical measures. A global sensitivity analysis is then performed to quantify the impact of individual modes as well as their interactions. It shows that the local SSH at the edge of the GoM main current—the Loop Current—is mostly sensitive to perturbations of the initial conditions affecting the current front, whereas the local MLD in the area of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is more sensitive to wind forcing perturbations. At the basin scale, the SSH in the deep GoM is mostly sensitive to initial condition perturbations, while over the shelf it is sensitive to wind forcing perturbations. On the other hand, the basin MLD is almost exclusively sensitive to wind perturbations. For both quantities, the two sources of uncertainty have limited interactions. Finally, the computations indicate that whereas local quantities can exhibit complex behavior that necessitates a large number of realizations, the modal analysis of field sensitivities can be suitably achieved with a moderate size ensemble.     

Global sensitivity analysis in an ocean general circulation model: a sparse spectral projection approach

Polynomial chaos (PC) expansions are used to propagate parametric uncertainties in ocean global circulation model. The computations focus on short-time, high-resolution simulations of the Gulf of Mexico, using the hybrid coordinate ocean model, with wind stresses corresponding to hurricane Ivan. A sparse quadrature approach is used to determine the PC coefficients which provides a detailed representation of the stochastic model response. The quality of the PC representation is first examined through a systematic refinement of the number of resolution levels. The PC representation of the stochastic model response is then utilized to compute distributions of quantities of interest (QoIs) and to analyze the local and global sensitivity of these QoIs to uncertain parameters. Conclusions are finally drawn regarding limitations of local perturbations and variance-based assessment and concerning potential application of the present methodology to inverse problems and to uncertainty management.     

Modeling IR spectral energy distributions: a?pilot study of?starburst parameters and silicate absorption curves for some GOALS galaxies

This paper describes a pilot study into the spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting and the derivation of physical parameters for 19 galaxies observed as part of the Great Observatories All-sky LIRG Survey (GOALS) survey as observed with the Spitzer Space Telescope. For this we have used the pan-spectral fitting tools developed in a series of papers by Dopita and his co-workers. We show that the standard Lee and Draine ??astronomical silicate?? model cannot provide a good fit to the silicate absorption features as observed in the heavily dust-extinguished (A _V??50 mag.) starbursts. We have derived an empirical fit to the ??starburst silicate?? absorption in these objects. This absorption curve is consistent with the silicate grains being systematically larger in starburst environments than in the local Galactic interstellar medium. We demonstrate the sensitivity of the SED fitting to each of the fitted parameters, and derive these parameters for those galaxies which do not have an embedded AGN. This technique is simple and provides reasonably robust and uniform parameters for the starburst, especially as far as the star formation rate, population of old stars, compactness of the starburst region and total foreground extinction are concerned. However, the chemical abundances and the optical extinction cannot be reliably determined by this analysis, and optical SEDs will also be required to provide a complete characterization of the starburst region and of the surrounding galaxy.     

Effect of chlorine on near-liquidus phase equilibria of an Fe–Mg-rich tholeiitic basalt

The importance of Cl in basalt petrogenesis has been recognized, yet constraints on its effect on liquidus crystallization of basalts are scarce. In order to quantify the role of Cl in basaltic systems, we have experimentally determined near-liquidus phase relations of a synthetic Fe–Mg-rich basalt, doped with 0.0–2.5 wt% dissolved Cl, at 0.7, 1.1, and 1.5 GPa. Results have been parameterized and compared with previous data from literature. The effect of Cl on mineral chemistry and liquidus depression is dependent on the starting basaltic composition. The liquidus depression measured for a SiO₂-rich, Al₂O₃-poor basalt is smaller than that observed for a basaltic melt depleted in silica and enriched in FeO_T and Al₂O₃. The effect of Cl on depression of the olivine–orthopyroxene–liquid multiple saturation pressure does not seem to vary with the starting composition of the basaltic liquid. This suggests that Cl may significantly promote the generation of silica-poor, Fe–Al-rich magmas in the Earth, Mars, and the Moon.     

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century.

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