Detection Time for Plausible Changes in Annual Precipitation, Evapotranspiration, and Streamflow in Three Mississippi River Sub-Basins

We use diagnostic studies of off-line variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model simulations of terrestrial water budgets and 21st-century climate change simulations using the parallel climate model (PCM) to estimate the time required to detect predicted changes in annual precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E), and discharge (Q) in three sub-basins of the Mississippi River Basin. Time series lengths on the order of 50–350 years are required to detect plausible P, E, and Q trends in the Missouri, Ohio, and Upper Mississippi River basins. Approximately 80–160, 50, and 140–350 years, respectively, are needed to detect the predicted P, E, and Q trends with a high degree of statistical confidence. These detection time estimates are based on conservative statistical criteria (α = 0.05 and β = 0.10) associated with low probability of both detecting a trend when it is not occurring (Type I error) and not detecting a trend when it is occurring (Type II error). The long detection times suggest that global-warming-induced changes in annual basin-wide hydro-climatic variables that may already be occurring in the three basins probably cannot yet be detected at this level of confidence. Furthermore, changes for some variables that may occur within the 21st century might not be detectable for many decades or until the following century – this may or may not be the case for individual recording station data. The long detection times for streamflow result from comparatively low signal-to-noise ratios in the annual time series. Finally, initial estimates suggest that faster detection of acceleration in the hydrological cycle may be possible using seasonal time series of appropriate hydro-climatic variables, rather than annual time series.     

A model for the demise of large, glacial Lake Ojibway, Ontario and Quebec

Large glacial lakes modulated the return of meltwater to the ocean during deglaciation, and their drainage may have initiated global climate change. Yet few records of their drainage come from observations within their basins. Sediment cores from nine lakes along a 240-km transect from northwestern Quebec to northeastern Ontario cover a portion of former Lake Ojibway and provide a stratigraphy of the terminal phase of this large glacial lake. Magnetic susceptibility, density, grain size, X-ray fluorescence chemistry and X-ray diffraction data were used to characterize stratigraphic changes within the basin. The basal sequence consists of till and rhythmites, with ice-proximal debris flows overlain by varves. The varves thin up-section and become unrecognizable, which indicates decreased deposition rates. This fine-grained sediment forms the matrix of a clay-pebble conglomerate. The clay-pebbles are ice-rafted debris (IRD). The IRD flux was probably constant, whereas the sedimentation rate of the finer-grained matrix decreased. The end of IRD marks the cessation of icebergs in the lake and is the best indication for drainage of the glacial lake. The conglomerate is capped by laminated to massive gray silt deposited after lake drainage and marks the transition to organic-rich, post-glacial lakes. Such sequences place drainage into the broader context of deglaciation.     

Storm track response to ocean fronts in a global high-resolution climate model

Synoptic atmospheric eddies are affected by lower tropospheric air-temperature gradients and by turbulent heat fluxes from the surface. In this study we examine how ocean fronts affect these quantities and hence the storm tracks. We focus on two midlatitude regions where ocean fronts lie close to the storm tracks: the north-west Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. An atmospheric climate model of reasonably high resolution (~50 km) is applied in a climate-length (60 year) simulation in order to obtain stable statistics. Simulations with frontal structure in the sea surface temperature (SST) in one of the regions are compared against simulations with globally smoothed SST. We show that in both regions the ocean fronts have a strong influence on the transient eddy heat and moisture fluxes, not just in the boundary layer, but also in the free troposphere. Local differences in these quantities between the simulations reach 20–40 % of the maximum values in the simulation with smoothed SST. Averaged over the entire region of the storm track over the ocean the corresponding differences are 10–20 %. The effect on the transient eddy meridional wind variance is strong in the boundary layer but relatively weak above that. The potential mechanisms by which the ocean fronts influence the storm tracks are discussed, and our results are compared against previous studies with regional models, Aquaplanet models, and coarse resolution coupled models.     

Imaging of Buried Archaeological Materials: The Reflection Properties of Archaeological Wood

Effective marine archaeological site management demands detailed information on not only the spatial distribution of artefacts but also the degradation state of the materials present. Although sonar methods have frequently been used in an attempt to detect buried wooden shipwrecks they are currently unable to indicate their degradation state. To assess the sensitivity of acoustic measurements to changes in the degradation state of such material, and hence the potential for sonars to quantify degradation, laboratory measurements of compressional wave velocity, as well as bulk density for oak and pine samples, in varying states of decay, were undertaken. These data enabled the calculation of theoretical reflection coefficients for such materials buried in various marine sediments. As wood degrades, the reflection coefficients become more negative, resulting in the hypothesis that the more degraded wood becomes, the easier it should be to detect. Typical reflection coefficients of the order of −0.43 and −0.52 for the most degraded oak and pine samples in sand are predicted. Conversely, for wood exposed to seawater the predicted reflection coefficients are large and positive for undegraded material (0.35 for oak, 0.18 for pine) and decrease to zero or slightly below for the most degraded samples. This indicates that exposed timbers, when heavily degraded, can be acoustically transparent and so undetectable by acoustic methods. Corroboration of these experimental results was provided through comparison with high resolution seismic reflection data that has been acquired over two shipwrecks.     

Accessory mineral U–Th–Pb ages and <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar eruption chronology,and their bearing on rhyolitic magma evolution in the Pleistocene Coso volcanic field,California

We determined Ar/Ar eruption ages of eight extrusions from the Pleistocene Coso volcanic field, a long-lived series of small volume rhyolitic domes in eastern California. Combined with ion-microprobe dating of crystal ages of zircon and allanite from these lavas and from granophyre geothermal well cuttings, we were able to track the range of magma-production rates over the past 650 ka at Coso. In ≤230 ka rhyolites we find no evidence of protracted magma residence or recycled zircon (or allanite) from Pleistocene predecessors. A significant subset of zircon in the ~85 ka rhyolites yielded ages between ~100 and 200 Ma, requiring that generation of at least some rhyolites involves material from Mesozoic basement. Similar zircon xenocrysts are found in an ~200 ka granophyre. The new age constraints imply that magma evolution at Coso can occur rapidly as demonstrated by significant changes in rhyolite composition over short time intervals (≤10’s to 100’s ka). In conjunction with radioisotopic age constraints from other young silicic volcanic fields, dating of Coso rhyolites highlights the fact that at least some (and often the more voluminous) rhyolites are produced relatively rapidly, but that many small-volume rhyolites likely represent separation from long-lived mushy magma bodies.     

Predicting long-term urban growth in Beijing (China) with new factors and constraints of environmental change under integrated stochastic and fuzzy uncertainties

Numerous studies related to the simulation and prediction of urban growth to address land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have been conducted in recent years, but very few have considered the impact of climate change, flooding impact, government relocation, corridor cities, and long-term rainfall variations simultaneously. To bridge the gap, this study predicts possible future LULC changes for 2030 and 2050 in Beijing (China), since Beijing is one of the fastest-growing megacities in the world. The proposed integrated modeling analysis covers four key scenarios to reflect the influences of different factors and constraints on LULC changes, in which cellular automata, Markov chain, and multi-criteria evaluation are fully coupled. While fuzzy membership function was used to address the uncertainty associated with the decision analysis, Markov chain, which is regarded as a stochastic process, was applied to predict future urban growth pathways. In addition, a statistical downscaling model driven by possible climate change scenarios was employed to address long-term rainfall variations in Beijing, China. This study differs from previous ones for Beijing in terms of not only the effects of climate change and flooding impact but also the newly-developed economic free trade zone in Xiong’an and the central government’s plan to relocate to the Tongzhou district. Findings indicate that there is no marked difference in LULC over the four key scenarios. Compared to the baseline LULC in 2010, the predicted results indicate that urban expansion is expected to increase more than 6 and 11% in 2030 and 2050, respectively.     

Hydrothermal alteration at the Lonar Lake impact structure,India: Implications for impact cratering on Mars

Abstract— The 50,000 year old, 1.8 km diameter Lonar crater is one of only two known terrestrial craters to be emplaced in basaltic target rock (the 65 million year old Deccan Traps). The composition of the Lonar basalts is similar to martian basaltic meteorites, which establishes Lonar as an excellent analogue for similarly sized craters on the surface of Mars. Samples from cores drilled into the Lonar crater floor show that there are basaltic impact breccias that have been altered by post‐impact hydrothermal processes to produce an assemblage of secondary alteration minerals. Microprobe data and X‐ray diffraction analyses show that the alteration mineral assemblage consists primarily of saponite, with minor celadonite, and carbonate. Thermodynamic modeling and terrestrial volcanic analogues were used to demonstrate that these clay minerals formed at temperatures between 130°C and 200°C. By comparing the Lonar alteration assemblage with alteration at other terrestrial craters, we conclude that the Lonar crater represents a lower size limit for impact‐induced hydrothermal activity. Based on these results, we suggest that similarly sized craters on Mars have the potential to form hydrothermal systems, as long as liquid water was present on or near the martian surface. Furthermore, the Fe‐rich alteration minerals produced by post‐impact hydrothermal processes could contribute to the minor iron enrichment associated with the formation of the martian soil.     

Bacterial and Virus‐Like Particle Abundances in Purged and Unpurged Groundwater Depth Profiles

Bacteria and viruses are ubiquitous in subterranean aquatic habitats. Bacterial abundance is known to vary with depth in aquifers; however, whether viral abundance varies with depth is less well known. Here we use flow cytometry (FCM) to enumerate bacteria and virus‐like particles (VLP) from groundwater depth profiles. Groundwater samples were obtained from a set of nested piezometers from depths of 15, 30, 45, 60, 80, and 90 m and bacteria and VLP abundances were determined in purged aquifer water and unpurged water at each slot depth. Mean bacterial abundance (cells / mL) was not significantly different in unpurged water (3.2 × 10⁵) compared to purged water (1.4 × 10⁵); however, mean VLP abundance (particles / mL) was significantly greater in unpurged water (4.4 × 10⁵) compared to purged water (2.3 × 10⁵). Purged water was used to investigate the aquifer depth profile and bacterial and VLP abundances were observed to vary significantly between depths. The virus‐bacteria ratio was determined and was observed to steadily increase with depth. Overall, our data indicate the dynamic nature of bacterial and viral abundances in subsurface environments which should be considered when designing groundwater microbial sampling methodologies.     

Influence of strong monsoon winds on the water quality around a marine cage-culture zone in a shallow and semi-enclosed bay in Taiwan

Influences of marine cage culture and monsoonal disturbances, northeasterly (NE) and southwesterly (SW) monsoons on the proximal marine environment were investigated across a gradient of sites in a semi-enclosed bay, Magong Bay (Penghu Islands, Taiwan). Elevated levels of ammonia produced by the cages were the main pollutant and distinguished the cage-culture and intermediary zones (1000 m away from the cages) from the reference zone in the NE monsoon, indicating currents produced by the strong monsoon may have extended the spread of nutrient-enriched waters without necessarily flushing such effluents outside Magong Bay. Moreover, the levels of chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity were distinguishable between two seasons, suggesting that resuspension caused by the NE monsoon winds may also influence the water quality across this bay. It indicated that the impacts of marine cage culture vary as a function of distance, and also in response to seasonal movements of water driven by local climatic occurrences.     

Paleosols in Central Illinois as Potential Sources of Ammonium in Groundwater

Glacially buried paleosols of pre-Holocene age were evaluated as potential sources for anomalously large concentrations of ammonium in groundwater in East Central Illinois. Ammonium has been detected at concentrations that are problematic to water treatment facilities (greater than 2.0 mg/L) in this region. Paleosols characterized for this study were of Quaternary age, specifically Robein Silt samples. Paleosol samples displayed significant capacity to both store and release ammonium through experiments measuring processes of sorption, ion exchange, and weathering. Bacteria and fungi within paleosols may significantly facilitate the leaching of ammonium into groundwater by the processes of assimilation and mineralization. Bacterial genetic material (DNA) was successfully extracted from the Robein Silt, purified, and amplified by polymerase chain reaction to produce 16S rRNA terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (TRFLP) community analyses. The Robein Silt was found to have established diverse and viable bacterial communities. 16S rRNA TRFLP comparisons to well-known bacterial species yielded possible matches with facultative chemolithotrophs, cellulose consumers, nitrate reducers, and actinomycetes. It was concluded that the Robein Silt is both a source and reservoir for groundwater ammonium. Therefore, the occurrence of relatively large concentrations of ammonium in groundwater monitoring data may not necessarily be an indication of only anthropogenic contamination. The results of this study, however, need to be placed in a hydrological context to better understand whether paleosols can be a significant source of ammonium to drinking water supplies.