Deriving fragility functions from bilinearized capacity curves for earthquake scenario modelling using the conditional spectrum

The development of fragility curves to perform seismic scenario-based risk assessment requires a fully probabilistic procedure in order to account for uncertainties at each step of the computation. This is especially true when developing fragility curves conditional on an Intensity Measure that is directly available from a ground-motion prediction equation. In this study, we propose a new derivation method that uses realistic spectra instead of design spectral shapes or uniform hazard spectra and allows one to easily account for the features of the site-specific hazard that influences the fragility, without using non-linear dynamic analysis. The proposed method has been applied to typical school building types in the city of Basel (Switzerland) and the results have been compared to the standard practice in Europe. The results confirm that fragility curves are scenario dependent and are particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the earthquake scenario. The same background theory used for the derivation of the fragility curves has allowed an innovative method to be proposed for the conversion of fragility curves to a common IM (i.e. spectral acceleration or PGA). This conversion is the only way direct comparisons of fragility curves can be made and is useful when inter-period correlation cannot be used in scenario loss assessment. Moreover, such conversion is necessary to compare and verify newly developed curves against those from previous studies. Conversion to macroseismic intensity is also relevant for the comparison between mechanical-based and empirical fragility curves, in order to detect possible biases.     

A first Holocene leaf wax isotope-based paleoclimate record from the semi-humid to semi-arid south-eastern Caucasian lowlands

The Holocene paleoclimate of the Caucasus region is rather complex and not yet well understood: while existing studies are mainly based on pollen records from high-altitude and humid lowland regions, no records are available from the semi-humid to semi-arid south-eastern Caucasian lowlands. Therefore, this study investigated compound-specific δ²H and δ¹³C isotopes of leaf wax biomarkers from Holocene floodplain soils in eastern Georgia. Our results show that the leaf wax δ²H signal from the paleosols mostly reflects changes in the moisture source and its isotopic composition. Depleted δ²H values before ~8 cal ka bp change towards enriched values after ~5 cal ka bp and become again depleted after ~1.6 cal ka bp. This trend could be caused by Holocene changes of the isotopic compositions of the Black and eastern Mediterranean Sea, and/or by varying contribution of both moisture sources linked with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The leaf wax δ¹³C signal from the paleosols directly indicates varying local water availability and drought stress. Depleted δ¹³C values before ~8 and after ~5 cal ka bp indicate wetter local conditions with higher water availability, whereas more enriched values during the middle Holocene (~8 until at least 5 cal ka bp ) indicate drier conditions with increased drought stress.     

Water in garnet of garnetite (metarodingite) and eclogite from the Erzgebirge and the Lepontine Alps

Little is known about water in nominally anhydrous minerals of orogenic garnet peridotite and enclosed metabasic rocks. This study is focused on peridotite-hosted eclogite and garnetite (metarodingite) from the Erzgebirge (EG), Germany, and the Lepontine Alps (LA), Switzerland. Newly discovered, peridotite-hosted eclogite in the Erzgebirge occurs in the same ultra-high pressure (UHP) unit as gneiss-hosted coesite eclogite, from which it is petrologically indistinguishable. Garnet is present in all mafic and ultramafic high pressure (HP) rocks providing for an ideal proxy to compare the H₂O content of the different rock types. Garnet composition is very similar in EG and LA samples and depends on the rock type. Garnet from garnetite, compared to eclogite, contains more CaO (garnetite: 10.5–16.5 wt%; eclogite: 5–11 wt%) and is also characterized by an anomalous REE distribution. In contrast, the infrared (IR) spectra of garnet from both rock types reveal the same OH absorption bands that are also identical to those of previously studied peridotitic garnet from the same locations. Two groups of IR bands, SW I (3,650 ± 10 cm⁻¹) and SW II (3,570–3,630 cm⁻¹) are ascribed to structural hydroxyl (colloquially ‘water’). A third, broad band is present in about half of the analysed garnet domains and related to molecular water (MW) in submicroscopic fluid inclusions. The primary content of structural H₂O, preserved in garnet domains without fluid inclusions (and MW bands), varies systematically—depending on both the location and the rock type. Garnet from EG rocks contains more water compared to LA samples, and garnet from garnetite (EG: 121–241 wt.ppm H₂O; LA: 23–46 wt.ppm) hosts more water than eclogitic garnet (EG: 84 wt.ppm; LA: 4–11 wt.ppm). Higher contents of structural water (SW) are observed in domains with molecular water, in which the SW II band (being not restricted to HP conditions) is simultaneously enhanced. This implies that fluid influx during decompression not only led to fluid inclusions but also favoured the uptake of secondary SW. The results signify that garnet from all EG and LA samples was originally H₂O-undersaturated. Combining the data from eclogite, garnetite and previously studied peridotite, H₂O and CaO are positively correlated, pointing to the same degree of H₂O-undersaturation at peak metamorphism in all rock types. This ubiquitous water-deficiency cannot be reconciled with the derivation of any of these rocks from the lowermost part of the mantle wedge that was in contact with the subducting plate. This agrees with the previously inferred abyssal origin for part of the rocks from the LA (Cima di Gagnone). A similar origin has to be invoked for the Erzgebirge UHP unit. We suggest that all mafic and ultramafic rocks of this unit not only shared the same metamorphic evolution but also a common protolith origin, most probably on the ocean floor. This inference is supported by the presence of peridotite-hosted garnetite, representing metamorphosed rodingite.     

Geomorphological evidence of paleoseismicity: Surficial and underground structures of Pasmajärvi postglacial fault

The cyclic nature of glaciations and related postglacial faulting represents a risk for the deep geological disposal of spent nuclear fuel in areas likely to be affected by future glaciations. Seismic history was therefore studied by means of detecting geomorphological structures on airborne laser scanning digital elevation models and underground by excavating in an esker and trenching across a postglacial fault located in northern Fennoscandia. OLS dating and assessing the geomorphological structures was used for timing of the seismic history. The results suggest that the faulting of different segments in the Pasmajärvi complex is due to at least two late Weichselian events, which probably occurred both subglacially and postglacially. The most reliable input for the moment magnitude estimates was vertical slip profiles, and therefore these estimates (M_W ≈ 6.4–6.9) are suggested. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of groundwater storage from seismic data using deep learning

Convolutional neural networks can provide a potential framework to characterize groundwater storage from seismic data. Estimation of key components, such as the amount of groundwater stored in an aquifer and delineate water table level, from active-source seismic data are performed in this study. The data to train, validate and test the neural networks are obtained by solving wave propagation in a coupled poroviscoelastic–elastic media. A discontinuous Galerkin method is applied to model wave propagation, whereas a deep convolutional neural network is used for the parameter estimation problem. In the numerical experiment, the primary unknowns estimated are the amount of stored groundwater and water table level, while the remaining parameters, assumed to be of less of interest, are marginalized in the convolutional neural network-based solution. Results, obtained through synthetic data, illustrate the potential of deep learning methods to extract additional aquifer information from seismic data, which otherwise would be impossible based on a set of reflection seismic sections or velocity tomograms.     

Spatial variation of flow characteristics in a subarctic meandering river in ice-covered and open-channel conditions: A 2D hydrodynamic modelling approach

To be able to understand year-round river channel evolution both at present and in the future, the spatial variation of the flow characteristics and their sediment transport capabilities under ice cover need to be detected. As the measurements done through cross-sectional drill holes cover only a small portion of the river channel area, the numerical simulations give insight into the wider spatial horizontal variation of the flow characteristics. Therefore, we simulate the ice-covered flow with a hydrodynamic two-dimensional (2D) model in a meandering subarctic river (Pulmanki River, Finland) in mid-winter conditions and compare them to the pre-winter open-channel low flow situation. Based on the simulations, which are calibrated with reference measurements, we aim to detect (1) how ice-covered mid-winter flow characteristics vary spatially and (2) the erosion and sedimentation potential of the ice-covered flow compared to open-channel conditions. The 2D hydrodynamic model replicated the observed flow characteristics in both open-channel and ice-covered conditions. During both seasons, the greatest erosional forces locate in the shallow sections. The narrow, freely flowing channel area found in mid-winter cause the main differences in the spatial flow variation between seasons. Despite the causes of the horizontal recirculating flow structures being similar in both seasons, the structures formed in different locations depended on whether the river was open or ice covered. The critical thresholds for particle entrainment are exceeded more often in open-channel conditions than during ice-covered flow. The results indicate spatially extensive sediment transport in open-channel conditions, but that the spatial variability and differences in depositional and erosional locations increase in ice-covered conditions. Asymmetrical bends and straight reaches erode throughout the year, whereas symmetrical, smaller bends mainly erode in open-channel conditions and are prone to deposition in winter. The long ice-covered season can greatly affect the annual morphology of the submerged channel. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of geometrical variations on morphodynamic equilibria in short tidal basins

Ocean Dynamics - The existence of cross-sectionally averaged morphodynamic equilibria of tidal inlets is investigated, using a cross-sectionally averaged model, and their sensitivity to variations...     

A search for microwave emission from CH in Comet Kohoutek (1973f)

A search was conducted for the three 9-cm transitions of the ground state Λ-doublet of CH in comet Kohoutek, using the CSIRO 64-m radio telescope and the Onsala Space Observatory's 25.6-m telescope. No lines were detected during the observing periods, and upper limits are given for the corresponding antenna temperatures.     

Overview of groundwater sources and water-supply systems,and associated microbial pollution,in Finland,Norway and Iceland

The characteristics of groundwater systems and groundwater contamination in Finland, Norway and Iceland are presented, as they relate to outbreaks of disease. Disparities among the Nordic countries in the approach to providing safe drinking water from groundwater are discussed, and recommendations are given for the future. Groundwater recharge is typically high in autumn or winter months or after snowmelt in the coldest regions. Most inland aquifers are unconfined and therefore vulnerable to pollution, but they are often without much anthropogenic influence and the water quality is good. In coastal zones, previously emplaced marine sediments may confine and protect aquifers to some extent. However, the water quality in these aquifers is highly variable, as the coastal regions are also most influenced by agriculture, sea-water intrusion and urban settlements resulting in challenging conditions for water abstraction and supply. Groundwater is typically extracted from Quaternary deposits for small and medium municipalities, from bedrock for single households, and from surface water for the largest cities, except for Iceland, which relies almost entirely on groundwater for public supply. Managed aquifer recharge, with or without prior water treatment, is widely used in Finland to extend present groundwater resources. Especially at small utilities, groundwater is often supplied without treatment. Despite generally good water quality, microbial contamination has occurred, principally by norovirus and Campylobacter, with larger outbreaks resulting from sewage contamination, cross-connections into drinking water supplies, heavy rainfall events, and ingress of polluted surface water to groundwater.