Projections of daily mean temperature variability in the future: cross-validation tests with ENSEMBLES regional climate simulations

Because of model biases, projections of future climate need to combine model simulations of recent and future climate with information on observed climate. Here, 10 methods for projecting the distribution of daily mean temperatures are compared, using six regional climate change simulations for Europe. Cross validation between the models is used to assess the potential performance of the methods in projecting future climate. Delta change and bias correction type methods show similar cross-validation performance, with methods based on the quantile mapping approach doing best in both groups due to their apparent ability to reduce the errors in the projected time mean temperature change. However, as no single method performs best under all circumstances, the optimal approach might be to use several well-behaving methods in parallel. When applying the various methods to real-world temperature projection for the late 21st century, the largest intermethod differences are found in the tails of the temperature distribution. Although the intermethod variation of the projections is generally smaller than their intermodel variation, it is not negligible. Therefore, it should be preferably included in uncertainty analysis of temperature projections, particularly in applications where the extremes of the distribution are important.     

Cross-national patterns of governance mechanisms in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement

ABSTRACT

The continuous submission and scaling-up of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) constitutes a key feature of the Paris Agreement. In their NDCs, states propose governance mechanisms for implementation of climate action, in turn distinguishing appropriate roles for the state in climate governance. Clarity on Parties’ suggested roles for the state makes explicit assumptions on the premise of climate policy, in turn contributing to enhanced transparency in negotiations on the scaling-up of NDCs. This also speaks to ongoing debates on roles for the state in climate governance literature. This article identifies the governance mechanisms proposed by states in their NDCs and the roles for the state envisioned by those governance mechanisms, and also examines how cross-national patterns of roles for the state break or converge with conventional patterns of international politics. The analysis shows that states propose a plurality of roles, which to different extents may be complementary or conflictual. We conclude that income, region, and the Annexes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are important for understanding suggested roles for the state, but that there are nuances to be further explored. We argue that this paper has three key findings: i) a majority of states rely on market mechanisms to implement their NDCs while rules on implementation and assessment of market mechanisms are still an outstanding issue in the negotiations, meaning that resolving this issue will be essential; ii) the process for evaluating and assessing qualitative governance mechanisms needs to be specified; and iii) increased awareness of differing views on the state’s roles makes explicit different perspectives on what constitutes an ambitious and legitimate contribution to combating climate change.

Key policy insights

• A majority of states (> 75%) envision the state as regulator (creating and strengthening legislation), market facilitator (creating and maintaining market structures), or facilitator (creating more favourable material conditions for climate-friendly behaviour).

• Greater awareness of differing views on roles for the state can increase understanding of different perspectives on ambition and legitimacy of contributions, in turn facilitating trust in negotiations.

• A distinction between substantive and procedural qualitative governance mechanisms and their function and interaction would facilitate the stocktaking dialogues.

     

Calibration measurements on the DEPFET Detectors for the MIXS instrument on BepiColombo

The Mercury Imaging X-ray Spectrometer (MIXS) will be launched on board of the 5th ESA cornerstone mission BepiColombo. The two channel instrument MIXS is dedicated to the exploration of the elemental composition of the mercurian surface by imaging x-ray spectroscopy of the elemental fluorescence lines. One of the main scientific goals of MIXS is to provide spatially resolved elemental abundance maps of key rock-forming elements. MIXS will be the successor of the XRS instrument, which is currently orbiting Mercury on board of NASAs satellite MESSENGER. MIXS will provide unprecedented spectral and spatial resolution due to its innovative detector and optics concepts. The MIXS target energy band ranges from 0.5 to 7 keV and allows to directly access the Fe-L line at 0.7 keV, which was not accessible to previous missions. In addition, the high spectroscopic resolution of FWHM ≤ 200 eV at the reference energy of 1 keV after one year in Mercury orbit, allows to separate the x-ray fluorescence emission lines of important elements like Mg (1.25 keV) and Al (1.49 keV) without the need for any filter. The detectors for the energy and spatially resolved detection of x-rays for both channels are identical DEPFET (DEpleted P-channel FET) active pixel detectors. We report on the calibration of the MIXS flight and flight spare detector modules at the PTB (Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt) beamlines at the BESSY II synchrotron radiation facility. Each detector was calibrated at least at 10 discrete energies in the energy range from 0.5 to 10 keV. The excellent spectroscopic performance of all three detector modules was verified.     

Hard X-ray Microflares down to 3 keV

The excellent sensitivity, spectral and spatial resolution, and energy coverage down to 3 keV provided by the Reuven Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager mission (RHESSI) allows for the first time the detailed study of the locations and the spectra of solar microflares down to 3 keV. During a one-hour quiet interval (GOES soft X-ray level around B6) on 2 May, 1:40–2:40 UT, at least 7 microflares occurred with the largest peaking at A6 GOES level. The microflares are found to come from 4 different active regions including one behind the west limb. At 7′′ resolution, some events show elongated sources, while others are unresolved point sources. In the impulsive phase of the microflares, the spectra can generally be fitted better with a thermal model plus power law above ∼ 6–7 keV than with a thermal only. The decay phase sometimes can be fitted with a thermal only, but in some events, power-law emission is detected late in the event indicating particle acceleration after the thermal peak of the event. The behind-the-limb microflare shows thermal emissions only, suggesting that the non-thermal power law emission originates lower, in footpoints that are occulted. The power-law fits extend to below 7 keV with exponents between −5 and −8, and imply a total non-thermal electron energy content between 10²⁶–10²⁷ erg. Except for the fact that the power-law indices are steeper than what is generally found in regular flares, the investigated microflares show characteristics similar to large flares. Since the total energy in non-thermal electrons is very sensitive to the value of the power law and the energy cutoff, these observations will give us better estimates of the total energy input into the corona. (Note that color versions of figures are on the accompanying CD-ROM.) Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1022404512780     

Simulation of ICE-Giacobini-Zinner and VEGA/GIOTTO-Halley encounters

The formation of a weak shock at the interaction of the solar wind with the cometary neutral gas is confirmed in a non-stationary gasdynamic model. No shocks will be detectable along the ICE path and if the VEGA/GIOTTO spacecraft enter the cometary atmosphere. A shock can only be expected at an exit from the Halley atmosphere.     

The Qso Hosts I Zw 1 and 3C 48: Prototypes of a Merger-Driven Quasar Evolution?

I Zw 1 and 3C 48 are two neighboring template objects at a later stage of the hypothesized merger-driven evolutionary sequence from ultra-luminous infrared galaxies (ULIRGs) to quasi-stellar objects (QSOs). Since galaxy mergers are assumed to trigger the evolution, it is important to confirm the merger properties of transitionary objects. Using multi-wavelength observations and N-body simulations, the merger histories of I Zw 1 and 3C 48 have been investigated in two separate case studies. Here, the results from both studies are compared and their relevance for the evolutionary hypothesis is discussed.This research is partly based on observations with ISAAC at the Very Large Telescope (VLT) of the European Southern Observatory (ESO) under projects 67.B-0009 and 67.B-0019.     

Experimental investigation of the critical ionization velocity in gas mixtures

The critical ionization velocity which is of cosmogonic and astrophysical interest has hitherto mainly been investigated for pure gases. Since in space we always have gas mixtures, it is of interest also to study gas mixtures. The present report, which is a summary of a more detailed report (Axnäs, 1976), summarizes the results of systematic experiments on the critical ionization velocity as a function of the mixing ratio for binary gas mixtures of H₂, He, N₂, O₂, Ne and Ar. The apparatus used is a coaxial plasma gun with an azimuthal magnetic field. The discharge parameters are chosen so that the plasma is weakly ionized. In some of the mixtures it is found that one of the components tends to dominate in the sense that only a small amount (regarding volume) of that component is needed for the discharge to adopt a limiting velocity close to that for the pure component. Thus in a mixture between a heavy and a light component having nearly equal ionization potentials, the heavy component dominates. Also, if there is a considerable difference in ionization potential between the components, the component with the lowest ionization potential tends to dominate.Paper dedicated to Professor Hannes Alfvén on the occasion of his 70th birthday, 30 May, 1978.