Prediction of surface potential temperature over complex terrain

Based on a statistical approach, the surface potential temperature at seven observing stations in complex terrain has been examined. It is shown that the surface potential temperature depends primarily on the rate of change of slope wind and on the geostrophic-level potential temperature.     

Analysis of changes in extreme temperatures using quantile regression

This study examines the changes in regional extreme temperature in South Korea using quantile regression, which is applied to analyze trends, not only in the mean but in all parts of the data distribution. The results show considerable diversity across space and quantile level in South Korea. In winter, the slopes in lower quantiles generally have a more distinct increase trend compared to the upper quantiles. The time series for daily minimum temperature during the winter season only shows a significant increasing trend in the lower quantile. In case of summer, most sites show an increase trend in both lower and upper quantiles for daily minimum temperature, while there are a number of sites with a decrease trend for daily maximum temperature. It was also found that the increase trend of extreme low temperature in large urban areas (0.80°C decade^?1) is much larger than in rural areas (0.54°C decade^?1) due to the effects of urbanization.     

Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon

Long-lead prediction of waxing and waning of the Western North Pacific (WNP)-East Asian (EA) summer monsoon (WNP-EASM) precipitation is a major challenge in seasonal time-scale climate prediction. In this study, deficiencies and potential for predicting the WNP-EASM precipitation and circulation one or two seasons ahead were examined using retrospective forecast data for the 26-year period of 1981–2006 from two operational couple models which are the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the Bureau of Meteorology Research Center (BMRC) Predictive Ocean–Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). While both coupled models have difficulty in predicting summer mean precipitation anomalies over the region of interest, even for a 0-month lead forecast, they are capable of predicting zonal wind anomalies at 850 hPa several months ahead and, consequently, satisfactorily predict summer monsoon circulation indices for the EA region (EASMI) and for the WNP region (WNPSMI). It should be noted that the two models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) reaches 0.40 of the correlation skill for the EASMI with a January initial condition and 0.75 for the WNPSMI with a February initial condition. Further analysis indicates that prediction reliability of the EASMI is related not only to the preceding El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but also to simultaneous local SST variability. On other hand, better prediction of the WNPSMI is accompanied by a more realistic simulation of lead–lag relationship between the index and ENSO. It should also be noted that current coupled models have difficulty in capturing the interannual variability component of the WNP-EASM system which is not correlated with typical ENSO variability. To improve the long-lead seasonal prediction of the WNP-EASM precipitation, a statistical postprocessing was developed based on the multiple linear regression method. The method utilizes the MME prediction of the EASMI and WNPSMI as predictors. It is shown that the statistical postprocessing is able to improve forecast skill for the summer mean precipitation over most of the WNP-EASM region at all forecast leads. It is noteworthy that the MME prediction, after applying statistical postprocessing, shows the best anomaly pattern correlation skill for the EASM precipitation at a 4-month lead (February initial condition) and for the WNPSM precipitation at a 5-month lead (January initial condition), indicating its potential for improving long-lead prediction of the monsoon precipitation.     

Effects of alternative cloud radiation parameterizations in a general circulation model

Using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) general circulation model (CCM2), a suite of alternative cloud radiation parameterizations has been tested. Our methodology relies on perpetual July integrations driven by ±2 K sea surface temperature forcing. The tested parameterizations include relative humidity based clouds and versions of schemes involving a prognostic cloud water budget. We are especially interested in testing the effect of cloud optical thickness feedbacks on global climate sensitivity. All schemes exhibit negative cloud radiation feedbacks, i.e., cloud moderates the global warming. However, these negative net cloud radiation feedbacks consist of quite different shortwave and longwave components between a scheme with interactive cloud radiative properties and several schemes with specified cloud water paths. An increase in cloud water content in the warmer climate leads to optically thicker middle- and low-level clouds and in turn negative shortwave feedbacks for the interactive radiative scheme, while a decrease in cloud amount leads to a positive shortwave feedback for the other schemes. For the longwave feedbacks, a decrease in high effective cloudiness for the schemes without interactive radiative properties leads to a negative feedback, while no distinct changes in effective high cloudiness and the resulting feedback are exhibited for the scheme with interactive radiative properties. The resulting magnitude of negative net cloud radiation feed-back is largest for the scheme with interactive radiative properties. Even though the simulated values of cloud radiative forcing for the present climate using this method differ most from the observational data, the approach shows great promise for the future.     

Erosion and slope instability on Horizon Guyot,Mid-Pacific Mountains

Seismic-reflection profiles, sediment cores, and current velocities were assessed to study the impact of erosion and sediment redistribution on the pelagic sediment cap of Horizon Guyot, a flat-topped submarine volcanic ridge in the Mid-Pacific Mountains. These processes seem to concentrate their effect around the rim of the sediment cap. Sediment slumping occurs on the northwest perimeter of the guyot's sediment cap. Slope stability analysis suggests that if overconsolidation on Horizon Guyot is the result of current reworking or if local undercutting by bottom currents steepens the sea floor declivity, the sediment cap may be unstable during infrequent earthquake loading, transporting sediment from the guyot summit to the abyssal sea floor.     

A review of dimethylsulfoxide in aquatic environments

Abstract

Dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) is an ubiquitous, albeit poorly understood, component of the marine sulfur cycle. Conventionally, the accepted formation pathways are the photochemical and microbial oxidation of dimethylsulfide (DMS). The principal loss mechanism is thought to be via microbial transformation, either consumption or reduction to DMS. The interactions between DMSO and DMS are likely to be important in controlling sea surface concentrations of DMS, and thus DMSO could influence the role played by DMS in global climate regulation. This review examines current knowledge of the distribution of DMSO in aquatic environments and the possible link between DMSO, DMS and global climate control. Mechanisms for the formation and loss of DMSO are also considered in addition to some of the factors influencing these processes. The review also considers that DMSO may be biosynthesized by phytoplankton, representing a non‐DMS source for DMSO, and that DMSO can undergo photochemical oxidation, a potential loss mechanism for DMSO in the marine environment.     

Characterization of synthetic nanocrystalline mackinawite: crystal structure, particle size, and specific surface area

Iron sulfide was synthesized by reacting aqueous solutions of sodium sulfide and ferrous chloride for 3 days. By X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD), the resultant phase was determined to be primarily nanocrystalline mackinawite (space group: P4/ nmm) with unit cell parameters a = b = 3.67 Å and c = 5.20 Å. Iron K-edge XAS analysis also indicated the dominance of mackinawite. Lattice expansion of synthetic mackinawite was observed along the c-axis relative to well-crystalline mackinawite. Compared with relatively short-aged phase, the mackinawite prepared here was composed of larger crystallites with less elongated lattice spacings. The direct observation of lattice fringes by HR-TEM verified the applicability of Bragg diffraction in determining the lattice parameters of nanocrystalline mackinawite from XRPD patterns. Estimated particle size and external specific surface area (SSA_ext) of nanocrystalline mackinawite varied significantly with the methods used. The use of Scherrer equation for measuring crystallite size based on XRPD patterns is limited by uncertainty of the Scherrer constant (K) due to the presence of polydisperse particles. The presence of polycrystalline particles may also lead to inaccurate particle size estimation by Scherrer equation, given that crystallite and particle sizes are not equivalent. The TEM observation yielded the smallest SSA_ext of 103 m²/g. This measurement was not representative of dispersed particles due to particle aggregation from drying during sample preparation. In contrast, EGME method and PCS measurement yielded higher SSA_ext (276-345 m²/g by EGME and 424 ± 130 m²/g by PCS). These were in reasonable agreement with those previously measured by the methods insensitive to particle aggregation.     

What can flatfish ontogenies tell us about pelagic and benthic lifestyles?

Eye migration, asymmetrical pigmentation, and a 90° rotation in posture are developmental changes that unify all flatfishes and facilitate a transition from a pelagic to a benthic existence. Settlement places the fish in new environmental conditions which may require different types and levels of performance for survival compared to those needed in the water column. Since structure and performance vary as a consequence of ontogeny, it is likely that natural selection has acted on the ontogeny of flatfishes differently from fishes that do not settle (pelagic fishes) to provide different survival skills by the time flatfishes settle. This paper provides examples of quantitative methods for comparing fish ontogenies in the context of three predictions: (1) different flatfish species undergo settlement at a common ontogenetic state; (2) they have a common set of skills at settlement that differ from those of pelagic species of the same ontogenetic state; and (3) skills or features that appear earlier in the ontogenetic program of flatfishes than in pelagic fishes suggest attributes that are important to survival in a benthic habitat. Preliminary comparisons suggest that flatfishes may have accelerated development of their mechanosensory system relative to pelagic species. Firm conclusions about ecologically important differences between the pelagic and benthic habitats derived from analyses of ontogenetic events will require more kinds of data from a broader selection of species.