This study investigates the response of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) as simulated by 18 global coupled general circulation models that participated in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). NAO has been assessed in control and transient 80-year simulations produced by each model under constant forcing, and 1% per year increasing concentrations of CO2, respectively. Although generally able to simulate the main features of NAO, the majority of models overestimate the observed mean wintertime NAO index of 8 hPa by 5–10 hPa. Furthermore, none of the models, in either the control or perturbed simulations, are able to reproduce decadal trends as strong as that seen in the observed NAO index from 1970–1995. Of the 15 models able to simulate the NAO pressure dipole, 13 predict a positive increase in NAO with increasing CO2 concentrations. The magnitude of the response is generally small and highly model-dependent, which leads to large uncertainty in multi-model estimates such as the median estimate of 0.0061±0.0036 hPa per %CO2. Although an increase of 0.61 hPa in NAO for a doubling in CO2 represents only a relatively small shift of 0.18 standard deviations in the probability distribution of winter mean NAO, this can cause large relative increases in the probabilities of extreme values of NAO associated with damaging impacts. Despite the large differences in NAO responses, the models robustly predict similar statistically significant changes in winter mean temperature (warmer over most of Europe) and precipitation (an increase over Northern Europe). Although these changes present a pattern similar to that expected due to an increase in the NAO index, linear regression is used to show that the response is much greater than can be attributed to small increases in NAO. NAO trends are not the key contributor to model-predicted climate change in wintertime mean temperature and precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean region. However, the models’ inability to capture the observed decadal variability in NAO might also signify a major deficiency in their ability to simulate the NAO-related responses to climate change. 相似文献
To investigate the effect of Greenlands orography on the northern hemisphere winter circulation experiments with an atmospheric GCM are conducted: a perturbed integration where standard orography is reduced to sea level in the Greenland area is compared to a standard orography control integration. The outcome of these experiments suggests that the existence of high mountains at Greenland causes a reinforcement of the stationary wave field in the Atlantic sector, colder temperatures to the west of Greenland and warmer temperatures to the east and south, over the North Atlantic. The impact on the flow field cannot be understood in the framework of standing Rossby waves, but it indicates a resonance between remotely forced stationary waves and local (thermo-) dynamics. The pattern of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in particular the northern centre, lies further to the east in the flat-Greenland experiment compared to the control run and the observations. Together with the fact that the climatological low-pressure system around Iceland hardly shifts, this suggests that the location of the NAO is not necessarily tied to the time mean pressure distributions. Considering the model resolution as a parameter, experiments with a high resolution (T106) suggest that the near-field changes are represented sufficiently by a T42 resolution, a standard resolution used in state-of-the-art coupled climate models. In contrast, far-field changes depend critically on model resolution. Hemispheric circulation and temperature changes differ substantially from low to high resolution, and generalized statements about the impact of Greenlands orography cannot be made. 相似文献
Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating is widely applied to sediments in paleoenvironmental sciences. However, there are only limited examples determining the age of archaeological stone structures by OSL using dust deposits. The age of dust deposits associated with ancient buildings may be used to date the onset of settlement (sediment below structures), settlement activity (occupation layer), or the time after a settlement had been abandoned or destroyed (sediment between collapsed roofs and walls). In this study, OSL dating is applied to establish numerical dates for settlement structures situated in the Negev Highlands, Israel. Two archaeological sites are investigated to identify their occupation history, by dating nine samples of aeolian dust trapped within the remains of ancient buildings. The OSL dating technique is applied using coarse grain quartz and a standard single‐aliquot regenerative‐dose (SAR) protocol. It was possible to date the onset of sedimentation in a later phase of the human occupation or shortly after the sites were abandoned, to 3.7 ± 0.3 ka (Intermediate Bronze Age) at the central site and to 2.7 ± 0.2 ka (Iron Age) at the ephemeral site. These results are supported by archaeological evidence gained from pottery finds and the architecture of the ancient buildings. 相似文献
Exopolymeric substances (EPS) produced by microorganisms play important roles in various aquatic, porous, and extreme environments. Only recently has their occurrence in sea ice been considered. We used macroscopic and microscopic approaches to study the content and possible ecological role of EPS in wintertime fast ice near Barrow, Alaska (71°20′ N, 156°40′ W). Using Alcian blue staining of melted ice samples, we observed high concentrations of EPS in all samples examined, ranging from 0.79 to 7.71 mg xanthan gum equivalents (XGEQV) l−1. Areal conversions to carbon equivalents yielded 1.5−1.9 g C m−2 ice in March and 3.3−4.0 g C m−2 in May (when the ice was thicker). Although EPS did not correlate with macronutrient or pigment data, the latter analyses indicated ongoing or recent biological activity in the ice within temperature horizons of −11°C to −9°C and warmer. EPS correlated positively with bacterial abundance (although no functional relationship could be deduced) and with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations. Ratios of EPS/DOC decreased at colder temperatures within the core, arguing against physical conversion of DOC to EPS during freezing. When sea-ice segments were maintained at representative winter temperatures (−5°C,−15°C and −25°C) for 3−14 months, the total EPS content increased significantly at rates of 5−47 μg XGEQV l−1 d−1, similar to published rates of EPS production by diatoms. Microscopic images of ice-core sections at these very cold temperatures, using a recently developed non-invasive method, revealed diatoms sequestered in spacious brine pockets, intact autofluorescent chloroplasts in 47% of the (pennate) diatoms observed, and indications of mucus in diatom-containing pores. The high concentrations of EPS detected in these winter ice cores represent a previously unrecognized form of organic matter that may contribute significantly to polar ocean carbon cycles, not only within the ice but after springtime release into the water column. The EPS present in very high concentrations in the brine of these microhabitats appear to play important buffering and cryoprotectant roles for microorganisms, especially diatoms, against harsh winter conditions of high salinity and potential ice-crystal damage. 相似文献
Crustal-scale shear zones may act as prominent electrical conductors given that sufficient amounts of graphite or fluids are present. There are several graphite-enriched shear zones within the 583-m-deep Rittsteig drilling (Bavaria, Germany), two of which are of major importance. One shear zone cuts through Moldanubian biotite-muscovite schists at 320 m depth. The other shear zone separates Teplá-Barrandian amphibolites from Moldanubian biotite-muscovite schists at 460 m depth. To detect these shear zones adjacent to the drilling, the self-potential method and the non-linear impedance spectroscopy have been applied. From the new data, obtained from hole-to-surface and surface measurements, we conclude that (1) graphite is pervasively distributed within the Rittsteig shear zones resulting in powerful electronic conductors, (2) the graphite-bearing shear zones are dipping moderately towards the S, and (3) the shear zone drilled at 320 m depth extends to the Earths surface where it has been detected ca. 400 m to the N of the drilling. As the graphite-bearing shear zones of both the Rittsteig drilling and the German Continental Deep Drilling (KTB) developed in the brittle-ductile regime of quartzofeldspathic rocks, we argue that the brittle-ductile boundary layer may act as a significant graphite attractor in the continental crust.
Presently available data on the reaction of SO2 with OH radicals (OH + SO2 + \(M\xrightarrow[{k_1 }]{}\) HSO3 +M) are critically reviewed in light of recent stratospheric sulfur budget calculations. These calculations impose that the net oxidation ratek of SO2 within the stratosphere should fall within the range 10?7≤k≤10?9, if the SO2 oxidation model for the stratospheric sulfate layer is assumed to be correct. The effective reaction rate constantk1*=k1[M] at the stratospheric temperature is estimated as $$k_1^* = \frac{{(8.2 \pm 2.2) \times 10^{ - 13} \times [M]}}{{(0.79 \mp 0.34) \times 10^{ - 13} + [M]}}cm^3 /molecules sec$$ where [M] refers to the total number density (molecules/cm3). Using the above limiting values ofk1*, and the estimated OH density concentrations, the net oxidation rate is calculated as 3.6×10?7≤k≤1.3×10?8 at 17 km altitude. This indicates that the upper limit of thesek values exceeds the tolerable range imposed by the model by a factor of about four. Obviously the uncertainty of thek1* values and of the OH concentrations in the stratosphere is still too large to make definite conclusions on the validity of the SO2 model. 相似文献