WRF模式与Topmodel模型在洪水预报中的耦合预报试验研究

基于空间分辨率90 m×90 m的湖北荆门漳河水库数字高程模型（DEM）地形数据,并从2012-2015年选取了20场洪水过程（其中16场用于模拟,4场用于检验）,将华中区域数值天气预报业务模式WRF提供的三重嵌套空间分辨率3 km×3 km、9 km×9 km和27 km×27 km预报降雨与集总式新安江模型以及半分布式水文模型Topmodel耦合进行洪水预报试验。通过对比试验得到以下结论：当流域降雨的时、空分布比较均匀时,集总式新安江模型可以较准确地预报出洪峰流量和峰现时间,而当降雨时、空分布差异较大时,预报误差也会随之增大。基于DEM数据建立的Topmodel模型可以反映不同降雨时、空分布下洪水预报结果的差异,试验结果表明,3 km×3 km和9 km×9 km洪水预报的输出结果比较接近,且在确定性系数和洪峰相对误差上要优于27 km×27 km的洪水预报结果,而在峰现时差的预报上,则是27 km×27 km的洪水预报结果与实测较吻合。通过研究还发现,虽然当流域降雨的时、空分布存在一定差异时,3种空间分辨率的WRF预报降雨均无法预报出与实测一致的降雨分布,但是在某些情况下,当降雨的时间分布误差和空间分布误差相抵消时,仍然可以得到较为准确的洪水预报结果。因此,高时、空分辨率的模式预报降雨并不一定就能对洪水预报结果产生正贡献,需要通过反复尝试寻找水文模型和数值模式耦合的最佳时、空分辨率。     

基于动态图像变形的PP与PS波层位直接匹配

多分量地震资料的矢量偏移、多波地震资料的联合解释与反演均需要估算纵横波的速度比,实现纵波与转换横波在时间或深度域的匹配.基于DTW,本文实现了一种适用于PP与PS波直接匹配的动态图像变形算法.该算法分为三个部分：首先,使用二阶对称动态规划算法逐样点递归计算PP与PS波走时或深度的误差累积和;其次,在以误差累积和为目标函数的回溯阶段设定变形窗,并在纵横波速比约束的变形窗内递归回溯搜索匹配路径;最后,根据最大相关系数判定准则在匹配路径中确定最佳匹配路径,获得使PP与PS波匹配的拉伸或压缩时移量.利用所获得的拉伸压缩时移量计算纵横波速度比就可以实现PP与PS波之间的匹配.模型与实际陆上多分量地震资料测试结果表明：该方法具有较高的匹配精度,且对于信噪比、相似度较低的多分量地震资料,该方法也能产生较好的匹配效果.

     

Environmental anomalies in the northeastern East China Sea during the last 3 000 years: implications for El Niño activity in the Holocene

To reconstruct the productivity changes for the last 10 500 a in the northeastern East China Sea (ECS), biogenic compounds (such as carbonate, organic carbon and opal), marine micropaleontological fossils (planktonic foraminifera, benthic foraminifera, radiolarian and silicoflagellate) and the compositional characters of benthic foraminifera fauna analyses were carried out on a sediment core DOC082 obtained from the western slope of Okinawa Trough (29°13.93′N, 128°08.53′E; 1 128 m water depth). The long-term changes of biogenic and micropaleontological proxies display some similarities through the last 10 500 a, which show three different phases: lower values are recorded during the early and middle Holocene (before about 4 000 a BP), followed by an abrupt and remarkable increase at about 4 000 a BP, the late Holocene (after about 3 000 a BP) is characterized by continuously high values. The multi-proxy data of paleoproductivity and percents of benthic foraminifera genera (Uvigerina and Bulimina) show that during the early and middle Holocene (10 500–4 000 a BP) productivity was relatively low with a sudden and distinct increase at about 4 000 a BP, and the late Holocene (3 400–0 a BP) is marked by significantly higher productivity. Also, the radiolarian-based sea surface temperature (SST) records reveal a distinct decline in SST in the late Holocene after 3 200 a BP, very different from the early and middle Holocene. For the last 3 000 a, the enhanced biological productivity and distinctly lower SST indicate a major change of oceanographic conditions in the northeastern ECS. These marine environmental anomalies are consistent with other paleoclimatic records for the late Holocene in the Chinese continent and its surrounding regions. After analyzing the mechanisms of modern productivity and SST changes in the northeastern ECS, and based on the climatic anomalies in the Chinese continent and variations in the Kuroshio Current during modern El Niño periods, we suggest that the anomalous environmental conditions in the northeastern ECS may imply intensified El Niño activity during the late Holocene.     

Trace-element mobilization during Ca-metasomatism along a major fluid conduit: Eclogitization of blueschist as a consequence of fluid-rock interaction

In the subduction complex of the Tianshan mountains, western China, massive blueschist is cross-cut by an eclogite-facies major fluid conduit surrounded by a reaction zone which is mainly composed of omphacite and garnet. Petrological as well as geochemical evidence suggest that formation of the vein and the eclogitic selvage around the vein was caused by fluid infiltration under peak metamorphic conditions of 21 ± 1.5 kbar and 510 ± 30 °C. The combination of whole-rock with mineral trace-element data as well as mass-balance calculations indicate that substantial differences exist between the unaltered host rock and the part of the system which was altered by fluid-rock interaction. These differences include: (1) depletion of mainly large-ion lithophile elements (LILE) and Li of up to 60% relative to their concentrations in the unaltered host rock; (2) an extreme enrichment of CaO (∼115%), Sr and Pb (>300%) in the altered parts of the vein-wall-rock system; (3) redistribution of heavy rare earth elements (HREE) from partly replaced rutile and recrystallized titanite in the blueschist-eclogite transition zone into newly grown garnet rims in the eclogitic selvage around the vein; (4) transformation of high Nb/Ta rutile into low Nb/Ta titanite which is associated with preferred mobilization of Nb over Ta; and (5) decoupling of Zr and Hf from Nb and Ta; the latter are depleted by ∼30% relative to the unaltered blueschist host rock whereas the former are depleted by only ∼10%. The prerequisite for the transformation of Ca-poor blueschist (6-7 wt.% CaO) into Ca-rich eclogite (up to 13 wt.% CaO) was the infiltration of a Ca-rich fluid. The release of trace elements can be attributed to partitioning of these elements into the passing fluid phase during dissolution-reprecipitation processes in the course of eclogitization. The reactivity of the precursor mineral assemblage and the chemical gradients between the reacting and passing fluid of the conduit are mainly responsible for trace-element mobilization in the studied samples. The suite of trace elements released upon fluid-induced eclogitization of the reactive wall-rock resembles that in island arc magmas showing strong enrichment of LIL elements, strong depletions in HFS elements and intermediate concentrations of REE.     

Numerical simulation of longitudinal settlement of shield tunnel in the coastal city Shanghai

Until now more than 14 subway lines are in operation and some new lines are being built in the coastal city Shanghai. The longitudinal settlement of shield tunnel has significant effect on the safety of the subway operation. In this paper, the deformation of the shield tunnel and the surrounding soil were analyzed by the establishment of a three-dimensional model. The vertical displacements of four paths (Path 1 is on the ground; Path 2 is at the top of the tunnel; Path 3 is in the middle of the tunnel; Path 4 is at the bottom of the tunnel) are affected by the nature of the soil. The horizontal displacement is smaller than the vertical displacement and horizontal displacement of the clay is larger than that of the sand. The distribution of the pore pressure changes with soil properties around the tunnel. The pore pressure of the sand layer is larger than that of the clay layer at the same depth of underlying soil.     

VR-GIS技术在无锡西部地区地裂缝研究中的应用

以无锡西部地区为研究区,利用虚拟GIS技术建立仿真地裂缝的虚拟平台,在数字高程模型的基础上,结合锡西地区地裂缝的分布特征以及野外采集的数据,对延伸地面和房屋的地裂缝分别采用几何建模法和动态纹理建模法,从而实现小尺度范围内动态仿真研究区地裂缝及其对房屋产生的影响作用。此外,在大尺度范围内对比产生裂缝的房屋、基岩起伏以及地面累计沉降量的三维空间分布,对比地裂缝与引发因素间的相互关系。选择开发环境良好的VC++作为虚拟开发平台,利用OpenGL（open graphic library）作为可视化开发工具包。研究成果能够为研究者清晰直观地探究地裂缝灾害的发生过程、引发因素以及产生的后果,提供一个强有力的工具。     

An elastoplastic damage constitutive model for concrete

An elastoplastic damage constitutive model to simulate nonlinear behavior of concrete is presented. Similar to traditional plastic theory, the irreversible deformation is modeled in effective stress space. In order to better describe different stiffness degradation mechanisms of concrete under tensile and compressive loading conditions, two damage variables, i.e., tension and compression are introduced, to quantitatively evaluate the degree of deterioration of concrete structure. The rate dependent behavior is taken into account, and this model is derived firmly in the framework of irreversible thermodynamics. Fully implicit backward-Euler algorithm is suggested to perform constitutive integration. Numerical results of the model accord well with the test results for specimens under uniaxial tension and compression, biaxial loading and triaxial loading. Failure processes of double-edge-notched (DEN) specimen are also simulated to further validate the proposed model.     

江苏岸外辐射沙脊群东沙稳定性研究

东沙是江苏岸外辐射沙脊群中的第二大沙洲,具有独特的地形地貌和水动力条件,对它进行稳定性研究为揭示整个辐射沙洲及其邻近岸滩的动态演变都非常有益。通过利用多年遥感卫片资料、1998年取得的现场水文泥沙观测资料和东沙滩面表层沉积物资料等,对东沙的地形地貌特征、沉积特征和东沙两侧潮汐通道的水流泥沙特征等进行了详细分析。研究结果表明,东沙的沙脊偏于西侧,西侧滩面较窄、高程较高且岸线较为顺直,东侧滩面较宽、高程较低且岸线较为破碎;西洋和陈家坞槽均处于冲刷状态,净输沙的主要方向为输向槽外或输向条子泥;东沙近三十年来面积有所缩小且有外围向中央收缩的趋势,尤其以向东、向南方向的迁移最为明显。     

景观生态学在城市规划和管理中的应用

城市是典型的人工景观，空间结构上属于紧密汇聚型，功能上表现为高能流、高容量和文化上的多样性。城市景观生态研究包括城市空间结构与生态过程，城市景观风貌与城市生态建设，城市景观规划是其最直接的应用。首先论述了城市景观质量与价值评价，包括景观美学评价与景观视觉容量。城市空间结构和景观规划原则是该文论述的主题，包括城市空间布局、城市空间扩展的廊道效应以及城市绿地系统的空间结构分析；以上海和广州市的绿地系统为例进行了重点介绍，最后对于城乡交错带的景观变化进行分析，用景观格局及其动态来描述城乡交错带的城市化过程特点，介绍了上海和沈阳的典型研究。     

北黄海潮流、余流垂直结构及其季节变化

基于对2006年夏季与2007年冬季在123.51°E,38.00°N的各1个月潮流和水位观测数据的分析,发现夏季余流呈现两层结构,上层流向为西北,下层流向东南,并且当大潮日期附近,在跃层附近深度存在若干流速较强的水层;冬季余流除了个别层以外基本上均为西北向流入北黄海,从中可以看到风场改变所引发的异常增减水和强流出现。对潮流椭圆的分析表明,半日潮族分潮流的最大流向自夏季至冬季存在着顺时针的旋转,旋转角大约为16(°)～18(°),并且夏季半日潮族随深度顺时针,全日潮族逆时针旋转,而冬季基本上上下一致。