集合数值天气预报的研究进展

集合预报是目前国外广泛应用的一种新的数值预报技术,国内由于计算条件的限制,集合预报的研究应用起步较晚,目前虽已取得了一些研究成果,但还没有广泛的应用到实际的业务预报之中。集合预报的应用,在天气预报上主要是概率预报,另外在“目标观测”、资料同化等方面也有广泛应用。集合概率预报的一系列适用的验证,增加了概率预报的信度。     

典型的太阳质子事件峰值流量的一种预报方法

分析了1988~2006年中62个典型的太阳质子事件,发现其归一化后峰值流量变化具有很好的统计规律,根据该规律提出了一种对太阳质子事件峰值流量进行预报的方法.试验预报结果表明,太阳质子事件峰值流量的预报值和实测值都在同一个量级以内,平均相对误差为32％,预报误差在可接受范围内.本文方法对于日常预报业务而言是实用和可行的.     

Effects of Oxbow Reconnection Based on the Distribution and Structure of Benthic Macroinvertebrates

This study focuses on the assessment of relationships between flow and macrozoobenthos structure that was performed in a reconnected oxbow lake located in the S?upia River floodplain (northern Poland). The lake was created during river straightening at the beginning of 20th century by cutting off the right‐bank meander. The oxbow restoration was performed to enhance the ecological viability of this water body and restore riverine wetland. In July 2000 the oxbow was connected with the river channel through PVC pipes which enabled free water movement. Macrozoobenthos sampling, as well as chemical analyses of water and hydrological measurements, took place both before and after the oxbow reconnection. Before the oxbow reconnection, the dominant species was Asellus aquaticus, whereas after the reconnection the structure of benthic species changed significantly. During the first year it was replaced by bivalves and Chironomidae larvae and then A. aquaticus. After the reconnection, macrozoobenthos mean density was 5‐fold higher and the mean wet biomass was 77‐fold higher than before the reconnection. The number of taxa increased from 4 before the oxbow reconnection to 17 during the first year after the performed works and 20 in the next year. We stated that the revitalization process of the reconnected oxbow lake has long‐term consequences for the benthic communities. The most significant feature of the oxbow reconnection is the qualitative and quantitative recolonization by riverine macrozoobenthos species. The performed restoration significantly improved ecological status of the oxbow lake by the increase in biodiversity and water quality.     

基于物方影像匹配的DEM聚类变化检测

提出了DEM的变化检测问题,采用了基于密度的聚类分析方法对匹配所得的初始变化区域进行分析,实现了地表高程变化区域的检测.     

The sulfurization recorded in tridymite in the monomict eucrite Northwest Africa 11591

Some of the tridymite in the monomict Northwest Africa (NWA) 11591 eucrite are found to have sulfide‐rich replacement textures (SRTs) to varying degrees. The SRTs of tridymite in NWA 11591 are characterized by the distribution of loose porous regions with aggregates of quartz and minor troilite grains along the rims and fractures of the tridymite, and we propose a new mechanism for the origin of this texture. According to the volume and density conversion relationship, the quartz in the SRT of tridymite with a hackle fracture pattern was transformed from tridymite. We suggest that the primary tridymite grains are affected by the S‐rich vapors along the rims and fractures, leading to the transformation of tridymite into quartz. In addition, the S‐rich vapors reacted with Fe²⁺, which was transported from the relict tridymite and/or the adjacent Fe‐rich minerals, and/or the S‐rich vapors react with the exotic metallic Fe to form troilite grains. The sulfurization in NWA 11591 most likely occurred during the prolonged subsolidus thermal metamorphism in the shallow crust of Vesta and might be an open, relatively high temperature (>800 °C) process. Sulfur would be an important component of the metasomatic fluid on Vesta.     

Evolution of the Radial Abundance Gradient and Cold Gas of the Galactic Disk

In order to understand the forming mechanism of the radial abun- dance gradient of the Galactic disk and the evolution of cold gas, we have con- structed a chemical evolution model of the Galactic disk, in which the star for- mation law concerned with molecular hydrogens is adopted, and the evolution of mass surface density is calculated for the molecular and atomic hydrogens separately, then the model predictions and the observed radial distributions of some physical quantities are compared. The result indicates that the model prediction is sensitive to the adopted infall timescale, the model which adopts the star formation law concerned with the molecular hydrogens can agree well with the major observed properties of the Galactic disk, especially can obtain naturally the radial oxygen abundance gradient of the Galactic disk, and the radial surface density profile of cold gas. The assumption of instantaneous or non-instantaneous recycling approximation has a small effect on the evolution of cold gas, especially in the case of rather low gas density.     

Robust abnormality detection methods for spatial search of radioactive materials

Radiological dirty bombs and improvised nuclear devices pose a significant threat to both public health and national security. Growing networks of radiation sensors have been deployed by a number of offices within the U.S. and international agencies. Detecting such threats while minimizing false alarm rates presents a considerable challenge to homeland security and public health. This research aims to achieve a higher probability of detection with a lower probability of false alarms. It focuses on the local spatial instability of radiation levels in order to detect radioactive materials based on robust outlier detection methods. Our approach includes a three‐step abnormality detection method consisting of one‐dimensional robust outlier detection for all gamma‐ray counts, a density‐based clustering analysis, and a two‐dimensional robust outlier detection method using a bagplot, based on spatial associations. The effectiveness of the method proposed is demonstrated through a case study, wherein radioactive materials are detected in urban environments, and its performance is compared with alternative methods employing a k‐sigma approach, local Getis–Ord () statistic, and the goodness of fit of the Poisson distribution.     

Hazardous geology zoning and influence factors in the near-shore shallow strata and seabed surface of the modern Yellow River Delta,China

In this study, on the basis of 3,200 km shallow stratigraphic section and side-scan sonar data of the coastal area of the Yellow River Delta, we delineated and interpreted a total of seven types of typical hazardous geologies, including the hazardous geology in the shallow strata (buried ancient channel and strata disturbance) and hazardous geology in the seabed surface strata (pit, erosive residual body, sand patch, sand wave and scour channel). We selected eight parameters representing the development scale of the hazardous geology as the zoning indexes, including the number of hazardous geology types, pit depth, height of erosive residual body, length of scour channel, area of sand patch, length of sand wave, width of the buried ancient channel and depth of strata disturbance, and implemented the grid processing of the research area to calculate the arithmetic sum of the zoning indexes of each unit grid one by one. We then adopted the clustering analysis method to divide the near-shore waters of the Yellow River Delta into five hazardous geology areas, namely the serious erosion disaster area controlled by Diaokou lobe waves, hazardous geology area of multi-disasters under the combined action of the Shenxiangou lobe river wave flow, accumulation type hazardous geology area controlled by the current estuary river, hazardous geology area of single disaster in the deep water area and potential hazardous geology area of the Chengdao Oilfield. All four of the main factors affecting the development of hazardous geology, namely the diffusion and movement of sediment flux of the Yellow River water entering the sea, seabed stability, bottom sediment type and distribution, as well as the marine hydrodynamic characteristics, show significant regional differentiation characteristics and laws. These characteristics and laws are consistent with the above-mentioned zoning results, in which the distribution, scale and genetic mechanism of hazardous geology are considered comprehensively. This indicates that the hazardous geology zoning based on the cluster analysis is a new attempt in research regarding the hazardous geology zoning of the near-shore waters of the modern Yellow River Delta and that this type of zoning has a high level of reasonability.     

琼东南盆地深水区松南-宝岛凹陷反转构造带发育特征及油气地质意义

利用新三维地震资料对松南-宝岛凹陷反转构造带发育特征、形成期次进行研究,并从构造背景及力学机制两个方面探讨反转构造的成因机制。研究结果表明,松南-宝岛凹陷反转构造带主要发育一系列"上凸下凹"的大型褶皱背斜,伴生NWW向弱走滑断裂构造和NNW向张剪构造。反转构造及其伴生构造符合NEE右旋剪切应力场特征,形成时间与东沙运动一致,表明该反转构造带可能受晚中新世南海东北部东沙运动产生的右旋走滑应力场作用控制。反转构造有利于研究区圈闭的重建和改造,对琼东南盆地东部新区油气运移和重新优选分配的认识,具有重要的油气地质意义。