南极企鹅粪土沉积柱样、蛋卵中OCPs、PCBs含量分布及其环境意义

对南极阿德雷岛企鹅栖息地粪土层进行210Pb测年,同时采用气相色谱-电子捕获检测器(GC-ECD)内标定量法测定了企鹅栖息地粪土混合地层和企鹅蛋卵中有机氯污染物含量,粪土混合地层中有机氯污染物最高浓度:表层PCBs为0.92ng/g,HCHs为0.42ng/g,DDTs在0.70ng/g,与非栖息地相比较,研究结果显示,通过鸟类活动的粪土混合地层(营巢和粪便)输入PCBs和OCPs含量比无鸟类生命途径的土壤相对要高。企鹅蛋卵样∑PCB在0.4-10.2ng/g,∑DDT2.4-10.3ng/g,HCB0.1-9.4ng/g,∑HCH0.1-0.5ng/g,总积蓄水平依次为:∑PCB>∑DDT>HCB>∑HCH。     

南极数值天气预报应用与研究进展

多个业务化的全球预报模式和有限区域预报模式应用于南极地区,已经成为南极天气预报和南极气候诊断研究的主要工具.现今南极地区的数值天气预报模式在模拟南极大气环流和天气系统方面性能不够理想,原因是多方面的:南极天气气候的特殊性(包括边界层的参数化、中尺度气旋等)、模式对南极复杂地形的描述不够充分、由于缺乏观测资料而使得模式的...     

Weak ENSO Asymmetry Due to Weak Nonlinear Air–Sea Interaction in CMIP5 Climate Models

State-of-the-art climate models have long-standing intrinsic biases that limit their simulation and projection capabilities.Significantly weak ENSO asymmetry and weakly nonlinear air–sea interaction over the tropical Pacific was found in CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5) climate models compared with observation. The results suggest that a weak nonlinear air–sea interaction may play a role in the weak ENSO asymmetry. Moreover, a weak nonlinearity in air–sea interaction in the models may be associated with the biases in the mean climate—the cold biases in the equatorial central Pacific. The excessive cold tongue bias pushes the deep convection far west to the western Pacific warm pool region and suppresses its development in the central equatorial Pacific. The deep convection has difficulties in further moving to the eastern equatorial Pacific, especially during extreme El Ni o events, which confines the westerly wind anomaly to the western Pacific. This weakens the eastern Pacific El Ni o events, especially the extreme El Ni o events, and thus leads to the weakened ENSO asymmetry in climate models. An accurate mean state structure(especially a realistic cold tongue and deep convection) is critical to reproducing ENSO events in climate models. Our evaluation also revealed that ENSO statistics in CMIP5 climate models are slightly improved compared with those of CMIP3. The weak ENSO asymmetry in CMIP5 is closer to the observation. It is more evident in CMIP5 that strong ENSO activities are usually accompanied by strong ENSO asymmetry, and the diversity of ENSO amplitude is reduced.     

Is it hot in here or is it just me? Temperature anomalies and political polarization over global warming in the American public

Do temperature anomalies affect political polarization over global warming? Americans’ attitudes about global warming are affected by whether they reside in states experiencing unseasonably warm (or cold) temperatures versus those experiencing milder temperatures. Specifically, in terms of causal attribution, political polarization over global warming is more pronounced in states experiencing temperature anomalies. Using pooled data collected during 2013–2014, this study utilizes logistic regression to explore how temperature anomalies exacerbate the political polarization among Americans over perceptions of whether global warming impacts are immediately evident as well as the attribution of global warming to human activity. Results indicate that very cold or warm temperature anomalies from a 5-year baseline predict perceptions of global warming impacts and exacerbate existing political polarization over the causal attribution of global warming. These effects are particularly noticeable among Democrats. This analysis provides a contribution to understanding how temperature anomalies from the recent past shape the sociophysical context of global warming attitudes.     

苯并（a）芘诱导下岩虫CYP基因的表达特征

Rapid amplification of cDNA ends(RACE) and real-time polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR) were carried out to analyze the CYP4 gene expression in polychaete Marphysa sanguinea exposed to benzo[a]pyrene(BaP) in this study. The full length of MsCYP4 cDNA was 2 470 bp, and it encoded 512 amino acids. The deduced amino acid sequence showed 47% identity with CYP4 F from frog Xenopus tropicalis and shared high homology with other known CYP4 sequences. To analyse the role of CYP4 in protecting M. sanguinea from BaP exposure, three BaP groups were established: 0.5, 5 and 50 μg/L. Polychaetes were sampled after 3, 7 and 12 d. At 0.5 μg/L, the effect of BaP on MsCYP4 gene expression increased with time prolonged. MsCYP4 gene expression curve showed Ushaped trend with time in 5 and 50 μg/L BaP groups. Therefore, MsCYP4 gene may play an important role in maintaining the balance of cellular metabolism and protecting M. sanguinea from BaP toxicity.     

The Natural Hazards Theme of the International Year of Planet Earth

The United Nations has declared 2008 to be the International Year of Planet Earth. It is being organised under the auspices of the International Union of Geological Sciences and UNESCO. Planning for the International Year of Planet Earth has consisted of establishing 10 major science themes including Hazards. The Hazards Theme is centred around the following key questions: (1) How have humans altered the geosphere, the biosphere and the landscape, thereby creating long-term changes detrimental to life and the environment and triggering certain hazards, while increasing societal vulnerability to geophysical (geological and hydrometeorological) hazards? (2) What technologies and methodologies are required to assess the vulnerability of people and places to hazards and how might these be used at a variety of spatial scales? (3) How do geophysical hazards compare relative to each other regarding current capabilities for monitoring, prediction and mitigation and what can be done in the short-term to improve these capabilities (4) What barriers exist to the utilisation of risk and vulnerability information by governments (and other entities) for risk and vulnerability reduction policies and planning (including mitigation) from each of the geophysical hazards? Following the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami and the UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction held in Kobe, Japan in January 2005, the International Council for Science (ICSU) decided to establish a major research programme and initiative on Natural and Human Induced Environmental Hazards and Disasters that will co-operate with the Hazards theme of the International Year and continue through to 2011.     

Development of extended WRF variational data assimilation system (WRFDA) for WRF non-hydrostatic mesoscale model

The paper intends to present the development of the extended weather research forecasting data assimilation (WRFDA) system in the framework of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model core of weather research forecasting system (WRF-NMM), as an imperative aspect of numerical modeling studies. Though originally the WRFDA provides improved initial conditions for advanced research WRF, we have successfully developed a unified WRFDA utility that can be used by the WRF-NMM core, as well. After critical evaluation, it has been strategized to develop a code to merge WRFDA framework and WRF-NMM output. In this paper, we have provided a few selected implementations and initial results through single observation test, and background error statistics like eigenvalues, eigenvector and length scale among others, which showcase the successful development of extended WRFDA code for WRF-NMM model. Furthermore, the extended WRFDA system is applied for the forecast of three severe cyclonic storms: Nargis (27 April–3 May 2008), Aila (23–26 May 2009) and Jal (4–8 November 2010) formed over the Bay of Bengal. Model results are compared and contrasted within the analysis fields and later on with high-resolution model forecasts. The mean initial position error is reduced by 33% with WRFDA as compared to GFS analysis. The vector displacement errors in track forecast are reduced by 33, 31, 30 and 20% to 24, 48, 72 and 96 hr forecasts respectively, in data assimilation experiments as compared to control run. The model diagnostics indicates successful implementation of WRFDA within the WRF-NMM system.     

Ensemble clustering for efficient robust optimization of naturally fractured reservoirs

In the development of naturally fractured reservoirs (NFRs), the existence of natural fractures induces severe fingering and breakthrough. To manage the flooding process and improve the ultimate recovery, we propose a numerical workflow to generate optimal production schedules for smart wells, in which the inflow control valve (ICV) settings can be controlled individually. To properly consider the uncertainty introduced by randomly distributed natural fractures, the robust optimization would require a large ensemble size and it would be computationally demanding. In this work, a hierarchical clustering method is proposed to select representative models for the robust optimization in order to avoid redundant simulation runs and improve the efficiency of the robust optimization. By reducing the full ensemble of models into a small subset ensemble, the efficiency of the robust optimization algorithm is significantly improved. The robust optimization is performed using the StoSAG scheme to find the optimal well controls that maximize the net-present-value (NPV) of the NFR’s development. Due to the discrete property of a natural fracture field, traditional feature extraction methods such as model-parameter-based clustering may not be directly applicable. Therefore, two different kinds of clustering-based optimization methods, a state-based (e.g., s _w profiles) clustering and a response-based (e.g., production rates) clustering, are proposed and compared. The computational results show that the robust clustering optimization could increase the computational efficiency significantly without sacrificing much expected NPV of the robust optimization. Moreover, the performance of different clustering algorithms varies widely in correspondence to different selections of clustering features. By properly extracting model features, the clustered subset could adequately represent the uncertainty of the full ensemble.     

基于模糊数学的公路枢纽重要性综合评判

通过对交通枢纽的介绍强调了公路枢纽的重要性,具体介绍了模糊综合评判的方法,重点介绍了隶属函数的概念以及常见的模糊分布,然后对公路枢纽的重要性进行了模糊综合评判,最后用东北地区几个城市的数据验证了模型的合理性。实验结果表明,利用模糊数学的方法,对于评判交通枢纽的重要性起着关键的作用。