关于天气预报问题

天气预告昔日各国完全采用经验法(Empirical method);自挪威学旅之气团分析,及极面学说发生以後,最近各国已次续采纳。我国在十年前,竺可桢氏已有介绍文章,吕炯先生在数年前亦曾应用极面学说分析长江下游之风暴。其後有黄厦千,赵九章,朱炳海诸先生亦曾致力於气团分析工作,皆具卓见。近日有涂长望先生之中国气团分     

Heterogenity of planetesimal collisional plume probed by glass inclusions in metal globules of Sierra Gorda 013, an unusual CBa-like chondrite

Metal-rich carbonaceous CB chondrites are generally assumed to be materials accreted from the gas–dust plume formed in catastrophic collisions of planetesimals, at least one of which was differentiated into a metal core and silicate shell. Micron-sized inclusions of siliceous alkali-rich glasses associated with sulfides were found in the metal globules of the Sierra Gorda 013 (SG 013), a CBa-like chondrite. These inclusions are unusual carriers of volatile alkalis which are commonly depleted in CB chondrites. The inclusions are presented by two types: (1) Al-bearing Nb-poor glass associated with daubréelite and (2) Nb-bearing Ca,Al,Mg-poor glass associated with an unknown Na-bearing Cr-sulfide. The glass compositions do not correspond to equilibrium condensation, evaporation, or melting. The Nb-bearing glass has a superchondritic Nb/Ta ratio (31) most likely indicating the fractionation of Nb and Ta in the high-temperature gas–dust impact plume due to condensation from vapor or evaporation of precursor Nb-rich particles. The glasses are interpreted as reaction products between refractory plume condensate particles (or possibly planetary or chondritic solids) with relatively low-temperature K-Na-Si-rich gas in oxidized conditions, possibly in a common plume vapor reservoir. Compositional differences indicate that the glasses and sulfides originated from several different sources under different fO₂, fS₂, and T conditions and were likely combined together and transported to the metal globule formation region by material flows in the heterogeneous impact plume. The glass–sulfide particles were enclosed in the globules aggregated from smaller solid or molten metal grains. The metal globules were further melted during transport to the high-temperature plume region or by plume shockwave heating. Thus, the composition of the glasses, the host metal, and the main mass of SG 013 shows dynamic heterogeneity of physical conditions and impact plume composition after a large-scale planetesimal collision.     

Concentration–discharge relationships in the coal mined region of the New River basin and Indian Fork sub‐basin,Tennessee, USA

For many basins, identifying changes to water quality over time and understanding current hydrologic processes are hindered by fragmented and discontinuous water‐quality and hydrology data. In the coal mined region of the New River basin and Indian Fork sub‐basin, muted and pronounced changes, respectively, to concentration–discharge (C–Q) relationships were identified using linear regression on log‐transformed historical (1970s–1980s) and recent (2000s) water‐quality and streamflow data. Changes to C–Q relationships were related to coal mining histories and shifts in land use. Hysteresis plots of individual storms from 2007 (New River) and the fall of 2009 (Indian Fork) were used to understand current hydrologic processes in the basins. In the New River, storm magnitude was found to be closely related to the reversal of loop rotation in hysteresis plots; a peak‐flow threshold of 25 cubic meters per second (m³/s) segregates hysteresis patterns into clockwise and counterclockwise rotational groups. Small storms with peak flow less than 25 m³/s often resulted in dilution of constituent concentrations in headwater tributaries like Indian Fork and concentration of constituents downstream in the mainstem of the New River. Conceptual two or three component mixing models for the basins were used to infer the influence of water derived from spoil material on water quality. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting copper toxicity in estuarine and marine waters using the Biotic Ligand Model

The Biotic Ligand Model (BLM) has proven efficient in predicting the toxicity of a variety of metals to freshwater organisms. Consequently, the US EPA has proposed its use for calculating freshwater copper criteria. This study evaluates the BLM for use in estuarine and marine waters. Studies were conducted using the bivalve, Mytilus sp. and 48-h embryo-larval development chronic estimator test methods. These are the most sensitive taxa and test in the US EPA saltwater copper criteria database. Samples from five locations around the USA were tested. There is a strong relationship between measured and BLM predicted copper EC50s (log transformed data, r² = 0.76, p < 0.001, n = 44). The BLM predicted within a factor ±2 of measured EC50s in 41 of 44 cases. However, the BLM tends to predict lower EC50s when measured EC50s are approximately 10 μg Cu/L. This may be due to limitations of the metal-dissolved organic matter interaction model.     

A Method for Installing Piezometers in Large Cobble Bed Rivers

An impact drive point method is described for emplacing piezometers in a cobble river bottom where this has previously been difficult without the use of drilling rigs. To force the drive point piezometers through coble, the vibrational impact of an air-powered hammer was carried directly to the drive point by the use of an internal drive rod. After insertion to depth, the drive rod was removed from the lower portion of the piezometer and a standpipe was added to extend the piezometer above the river level. Piezometers installed in this way have permitted water quality analysis and dynamic measurement of vertical potentials in cobble sediments ranging in size from 2.5 to >30 cm and the method has been successfully used in the Columbia River, USA, and Töss River, Switzerland. This innovative method provides information on the hydrodynamics of pore water in highly permeable, cobble deposits that are common in high-energy river and lake bottoms. Piezometers installed using the internal drive rod method facilitate the assessment of the temporal and spatial dynamics of recharge and discharge at the ground water/surface water interface and analyses of the ecological connectivity between the hyporheic zone and surface water of rivers and streams. This information will lead to improved management decisions related to our nation's ground water and surface water supplies.     

Yield–reliability analysis for rural domestic water supply from combined rainwater harvesting and run-of-river abstraction

Abstract

In many rural areas, reticulated water supply from large water resources schemes does not exist and many households obtain water from groundwater (GW), rainwater harvesting (RWH), run-of-river (ROR) flow, or combinations of these. While comprehensive yield–reliability analysis for large water resource systems is the norm, typical rural water supply analysis unrealistically aggregates data into monthly or annual time steps and does not incorporate reliability. A daily time-step simulation of household supply and frequency analysis of the number of days supplied in each year is used herein to: (a) demonstrate a realistic approach of yield–reliability analysis for RWH, ROR and combined RWH and ROR supply; and (b) show how combined utilization of the two can lead to improved supply. Integration of RWH and ROR supply has been found to improve yield and reliability substantially. The limitations of using the simpler mass curve analysis and the effect of applying a monthly time step are demonstrated.

Citation Ndiritu, J., Odiyo, J. O., Makungo, R., Ntuli, C. & Mwaka, B. (2011) Yield–reliability analysis for rural domestic water supply from combined rainwater harvesting and run-of-river abstraction. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(2), 238–248.     

A benchmark comparison of numerical methods for infinite Prandtl number thermal convection in two-dimensional Cartesian geometry

Abstract

A comparison is made between seven different numerical methods for calculating two-dimensional thermal convection in an infinite Prandtl number fluid. Among the seven methods are finite difference and finite element techniques that have been used to model thermal convection in the Earth's mantle. We evaluate the performance of each method using a suite of four benchmark problems, ranging from steady-state convection to intrinsically time-dependent convection with recurring thermal boundary layer instabilities. These results can be used to determine the accuracy of other computational methods, and to assist in the development of new ones.     

Spatial and seasonal variability of sediment accumulation potential through controlled flooding of the beels located in the polders of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta of Southwest Bangladesh

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta plain within Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable to relative sea level rise (RSLR) in the world especially under current anthropogenically modified (i.e., embanked) conditions. Tidal river management (TRM) as practiced in coastal regions of Bangladesh may provide an opportunity to combat RSLR by raising the land level through controlled sedimentation inside beels (depression within embanked polders) with re-opening of polders. To date, TRM has been applied to tide-dominated coastal regions, but the potential applicability of TRM for the beels within the polders of river-dominated and mixed flow (MF) regimes remains to be assessed. We apply a calibrated 2D numerical hydromorphodynamic model to quantify sediment deposition in a beel flooded through breaching of the polder dike under conditions of river-dominated, tide-dominated and MF regimes for different seasons and applying different regulation schemes for the flow into the beel. Simulation results show considerable seasonality in sediment deposition with largest deposition during the monsoon season. The potential of controlled flooding is highest in the tide-dominated region, where sediment accumulation can be up to 28 times higher than in the river-dominated region. Regulating flow into a beel increases trapping efficiency, but results in slightly lower total deposition than without regulation. We conclude that re-establishing flooding of the beel within the polder without regulating the flow into the beel through breaching of the polder dike is a promising strategy for the mixed and tide-dominated flow regions in the delta as the sediment accumulation can raise the land surface at a higher rate than RSLR and effective SLR (ESLR). In the more upstream river-dominated section of the delta, accumulation rates would be much lower, but the pressure of sea level rise on these areas is lower as well. Owing to the abundant availability of sediment, application of controlled flooding like TRM therefore provides an opportunity to counteract the impact of RSLR and ESLR by means of land raising, particularly along the tidal river reaches in the GBM delta.     

Physical disturbance creates bacterial dominance of benthic biological communities in tropical deltaic environments of the Gulf of Papua

Unlike many reactive continental shelf mud deposits in temperate regions, bacteria and microfauna rather than macrofauna typically dominate benthic biomass and activities over large areas of the Gulf of Papua (GoP) deltaic complex, Papua New Guinea. During mid NW monsoon periods (Jan–Feb), macrofaunal densities at Gulf stations were relatively low (), large macroinfauna were absent (upper 25 cm), and small (), surface deposit-feeding polychaetes and tubiculous amphipods were dominant, reflecting a frequently destabilized seabed and high sedimentation/erosion rates. Although frequent physical disturbance generally inhibits development of macrobenthic communities, some regions of the Gulf deposits are periodically colonized and extensively bioturbated during quiescent periods, as shown by preserved biogenic sedimentary structures. Bacterial inventories integrated over the top 20 cm were extremely variable within each sub region of the clinoform complex. A possible bimodal pattern with bathymetric depth and distance offshore may occur: lowest-inventories within the sandy, proximal Fly River delta, an open Gulf inner topset zone (10–20 m) having sites of relatively high inventories, an open Gulf mid-topset region with intermediate values and less extreme variation, and the outer topset—upper foreset zone (40–50 m) where highest values are attained (). Various measures of microbial activity, including measures proportional to the cellular rRNA content and the proportion of dividing cells, indicate extremely productive populations over the upper 1-m of the seabed throughout the Gulf of Papua region. Bacterial biomass (0–20 cm) including data of Alongi et al. (1991, 1992, 1995) varied from a low of in intertidal mud banks to a high of in the topset—foreset zone. Macrofaunal biomass did not exceed in any sampled region, ranging from 0.009±0 to with no obvious correlation with bathymetric depth (1–63 m). Meiofaunal biomass was generally an order of magnitude lower than macrofaunal biomass. Relatively elevated bacterial biomass and high turnover rates are consistent with high measured rates of benthic remineralization, presumably reflecting the rapid response time of bacteria to physical reworking, the associated entrainment of organic substrate, and flushing of metabolites. Solute exchange is also enhanced below the directly mixed surface region, possibly producing ‘far field’ stimulation of microbes in underlying deposits. Physical reworking and reoxidation of sediments between 10 and 50 m water depth maintain suboxic, nonsulfidic conditions in the upper 0.5–1 m despite active microbial communities and high benthic remineralization rates.