13e SESSION DU COMITÉ CONSULTATIF KARACHI 4–15 NOVEMBRE 1957

Abstract

Event-based methods are used in flood estimation to obtain the entire flood hydrograph. Previously, such methods adopted in the UK have relied on pre-determined values of the input variables (e.g. rainfall and antecedent conditions) to a rainfall–runoff model, which is expected to result in an output flood of a particular return period. In contrast, this paper presents a method that allows all the input variables to take on values across the full range of their individual distributions. These values are then brought together in all possible combinations as input to an event-based rainfall–runoff model in a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Further, this simulation strategy produces a long string of events (on average 10 per year), where dependencies from one event to the next, as well as between different variables within a single event, are accounted for. Frequency analysis is then applied to the annual maximum peak flows and flow volumes.

Citation Svensson, C., Kjeldsen, T.R., and Jones, D.A., 2013. Flood frequency estimation using a joint probability approach within a Monte Carlo framework. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–20.     

Chronicle of a forecast flood: exposure and vulnerability on the south-east coast of Spain

Natural Hazards - In recent years, floods have become one of the natural hazards that generate the greatest economic and human losses on the planet. As is well known, torrential rainfall events are...     

The influence of land use/land cover variability and rainfall intensity in triggering landslides: a back-analysis study via physically based models

Natural Hazards - The objective of this study was to use physically based models to carry out a back-analysis of the set of factors that may have influenced slope instability and the consequent...     

The role of massive AGB stars in the early solar system composition

Abstract— We demonstrate that a massive asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star is a good candidate as the main source of short‐lived radionuclides in the early solar system. Recent identification of massive (4–8 M⊙) AGB stars in the galaxy, which are both lithium‐ and rubidium‐rich, demonstrates that these stars experience proton captures at the base of the convective envelope (hot bottom burning), together with high‐neutron density nucleosynthesis with ²²Ne as a neutron source in the He shell and efficient dredge‐up of the processed material. A model of a 6.5 M⊙ star of solar metallicity can simultaneously match the abundances of ²⁶Al, ⁴¹Ca, ⁶⁰Fe, and ¹⁰⁷Pd inferred to have been present in the solar nebula by using a dilution factor of 1 part of AGB material per 300 parts of original solar nebula material, and taking into account a time interval between injection of the short‐lived nuclides and consolidation of the first meteorites equal to 0.53 Myr. Such a polluting source does not overproduce ⁵³Mn, as supernova models do, and only marginally affects isotopic ratios of stable elements. It is usually argued that it is unlikely that the short‐lived radionuclides in the early solar system came from an AGB star because these stars are rarely found in star forming regions, however, we think that further interdisciplinary studies are needed to address the fundamental problem of the birth of our solar system.     

Architecture of an Oligocene fluvial ribbon sandstone in the Ebro Basin,North‐eastern Spain

Fluvial ribbon sandstone bodies are ubiquitous in the Ebro Basin in North‐eastern Spain; their internal organization and the mechanics of deposition are as yet insufficiently known. A quarrying operation in an Oligocene fluvial ribbon sandstone body in the southern Ebro Basin allowed for a three‐dimensional reconstruction of the sedimentary architecture of the deposit. The sandstone is largely a medium‐grained to coarse‐grained, moderately sorted lithic arenite. In cross‐section, the sandstone body is 7 m thick, occupies a 5 m deep incision and wedges out laterally, forming a ‘wing’ that intercalates with horizontal floodplain deposits in the overbank region. Three architectural units were distinguished. The lowest and highest units (Units A and C) mostly consist of medium‐grained to coarse‐grained sandstone with medium‐scale trough cross‐bedding and large‐scale inclined stratasets. Each of Units A and C comprises a fining‐up stratal sequence reflecting deposition during one flood event. The middle unit (Unit B) consists of thinly bedded, fine‐grained sandstone/mudstone couplets and represents a time period when the channel was occupied by low‐discharge flows. The adjoining ‘wing’ consists of fine‐grained sandstone beds, with mudstone interlayers, correlative to strata in Units A and C in the main body of the ribbon sandstone. In plan view, the ribbon sandstone comprises an upstream bend and a downstream straight reach. In the upstream bend, large‐scale inclined stratasets up to 3 m in thickness represent four bank‐attached lateral channel bars, two in each of Units A and C. The lateral bars migrated downflow and did not develop into point bars. In the straight downstream reach, a tabular cross‐set in Unit A represents a mid‐channel transverse bar. In Unit C, a very coarse‐grained, unstratified interval is interpreted as deposited in a riffle zone, and gives way downstream to a large mid‐channel bar. The relatively simple architecture of these bars suggests that they developed as unit bars. Channel margin‐derived slump blocks cover the upper bar. The youngest deposit is fine‐grained sandstone and mudstone that accumulated immediately before avulsion and channel abandonment. Deposition of the studied sandstone body reflects transport‐limited sediment discharges, possibly attaining transient hyperconcentrated conditions.     

Denudation history of the Bocaina Plateau, Serra do Mar, southeastern Brazil: Relationships to Gondwana breakup and passive margin development

The Bocaina Plateau, which is situated on the eastern flank of the continental rift of southeastern Brazil, is the highest part of the Serra do Mar. Topographic relief in this area is suggested to be closely related to its complex tectono-magmatic evolution since the breakup of Western Gondwana and opening of the South Atlantic Ocean. Apatite fission track ages and track length distributions from 27 basement outcrops were determined to assess these hypotheses and reconstruct the denudation history of the Bocaina Plateau. The ages range between 303 ± 32 and 46 ± 5 Ma, and are significantly younger than the stratigraphic ages. Mean track lengths vary from 13.44 ± 1.51 to 11.1 ± 1.48 μm, with standard deviations between 1.16 and 1.83 μm. Contrasting ages within a single plateau and similar ages at different altitudes indicate a complex regional tectonothermal evolution. The thermal histories inferred from these data imply three periods of accelerated cooling related to the Early Cretaceous continental breakup, Early Cretaceous alkaline magmatism, and the Paleogene evolution of the continental rift of southeastern Brazil. The oldest fission track ages (> 200 Ma) were obtained in the Serra do Mar region, suggesting that these areas were a long-lived source of sediments for the Paraná, Bauru, and Santos basins.