Self-similar shocked accretion of collisional gas with radiative cooling

We describe similarity solutions that characterize the collapse of collisional gas on to scale-free perturbations in an Einstein–de Sitter universe. We consider the effects of radiative cooling and derive self-similar solutions under the assumption that the cooling function is a power law of density and temperature, Λ( T , ρ )∝ ρ ^3/2 T . We use these results to test the ability of smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH) techniques to follow the collapse and accretion of shocked, rapidly cooling gas in a cosmological context. Our SPH code reproduces the analytical results very well in cases that include or exclude radiative cooling. No substantial deviations from the predicted central mass accretion rates or from the temperature, density and velocity profiles are observed in well-resolved regions inside the shock radius. This test problem lends support to the reliability of SPH techniques to model the complex process of galaxy formation.     

A 44-year high-resolution ocean and atmospheric hindcast for the Mediterranean Basin developed within the HIPOCAS Project

A set of 44-year (1958–2001) homogeneous and high-resolution hindcasts of atmospheric, sea level residuals, and wave states was performed for the Mediterranean Basin within the framework of the HIPOCAS European Project. To this aim, different numerical models were used. As a first step, a Mediterranean high-resolution atmospheric database, suitable to provide realistic and homogeneous forcing for ocean hindcast runs was generated. The HIPOCAS atmospheric database was created by means of dynamical downscaling from the global reanalysis NCEP, using for that the limited area model SN-REMO along with a spectral nudging technique. In a second stage, different Mediterranean oceanic hindcasts were performed. On one hand a long-term database of sea state over the western Mediterranean was generated by means of the wave model WAM and on the other hand a sea level residual database containing storm surge events was obtained from a long-term integration of the HAMSOM model over the entire basin. The three different hindcast runs have been exhaustively validated. On that score, various simulated parameters have been compared to both satellite and in situ measurements. Such comparisons provide a measure of the skills of the different simulated fields to realistically reproduce the observed features. Once these skills are evaluated, a study of the ocean and atmospheric climate trends as well as the interannual variability for the whole 44-year period was carried out with the hindcasted data. The reliability of the data as shown by its comparison to measurements and a proven temporal homogeneity over the 44 years of simulation make the Mediterranean HIPOCAS ocean–atmosphere hindcasted database a useful tool for studies focused on regional climatic variability, as well as for further applications in coastal and environmental decision processes in the Mediterranean area.     

The mesoscale variability in the Caribbean Sea. Part I: Simulations and characteristics with an embedded model

The variability in the Caribbean Sea is investigated using high resolution (1/15°) general circulation model experiments. For the first time in this region, simulations were carried out with a 2-way nested configuration of the NEMO primitive equation model. A coarse North Atlantic grid (1/3°) reproduces the main features of the North Atlantic and Equatorial circulation capable of influencing ocean dynamics in the Caribbean Sea. This numerical study highlights strong dynamical differences among basins and modifies the view that dynamics are homogeneous over the whole Caribbean Basin. The Caribbean mean flow is shown to organize in two intense jets flowing westward along the northern and southern boundaries of the Venezuela Basin, which merge in the center of the Colombia Basin. Diagnostics of model outputs show that width, depth and strength of baroclinic eddies increase westward from the Lesser Antilles to the Colombia Basin. The widening and strengthening to the west is consistent with altimetry data and drifter observations. Although influenced by the circulation in the Colombia Basin, the variability in the Cayman Basin (which also presents a westward growth from the Chibcha Channel) is deeper and less energetic than the variability in the Colombia/Venezuela Basins. Main frequency peaks for the mesoscale variability present a westward shift, from roughly 50 days near the Lesser Antilles to 100 days in the Cayman Basin, which is associated with growth and merging of eddies.     

Dynamical capture and physical decay of short-period comets

The brightness evolution of short-period comets is discussed in connection with their physical lifetimes. It is shown that changes in the fraction of the free-subliming area of the nuclear surface may be more important than mass decrease in determining brightness variations. The decrease in the activity of short-period comets caused by the buildup of a dust mantle may be interrupted—and partially reversed—by dust blowoffs that leave exposed areas of fresh ices. Short-period comets may thus be subject to random brightness fluctuations that make quite uncertain any derivation of their physical lifetime based on comparisons of their absolute brightness at different apparitions. As an alternate procedure, the numerical integration of the whole sample of short-period comet orbits carried out by A. Carusi, L.Kresák, E. Perozzi and G. B. Valsecchi (1984, Long-Term Evolution of Short-Period Comets. Istituto Astrofisica Spaziale Internal Report 12, Rome) is used to draw conclusions about the transfer rate of their perihelia from Jupiter's region to the region of the terrestrial planets (heliocentric distances<1.5 AU). It is found that about one short-period comet per century reaches the region of the terrestrial planets. From this result and under the assumption of a steady-state comet population, an average lifetime of the order of 6 × 10³ years (～10³ revolutions) is derived for a typical kilometer-sized short-period comet of perihelion distance q ～ 1 AU. Such a rather long comet lifetime, as compared to some previous derivations, is consistent with the survival of some periodic comets on small-q orbits of long dynamical time scales.     

Preliminary Analysis of V and Hp Light Curves of 26 Carbon Miras

Light variations of a representative sample of 26 more or less periodically variable carbon stars were analyzed on the basis of 2220 individual observations made by the Hipparcos satellite and 33 544 visual observations listed in AFOEV and VSOLJ databases within the interval JD = 2 448 000 (1988) ±6 cycles. We found the osculating linear ephemerides of all stars and their mean light curves, as well. We found that the light curves of the carbon Miras in our set can be satisfactorily expressed as a linear combination of only two basic light curves. The analysis was done by an own method combining robust regression and principal component analysis.     

An analysis of surges triggered by a small flare

On 22 October, 1980, near the solar central meridian in the western vicinity of a large spot group, a subflare of the two-ribbon type was observed. Three surges were associated with this flare. Their starting points were situated close to the principal flare patches on both sides of a short filament that was visible for only a few hours. True flow velocities and decelerations along the arch-shaped surge trajectories have been determined for two of the surges. The highest velocities were found at the onset of the surges.The event was studied from a series of H on- and off-band flltergrams taken with the Debrecen coronagraph of 53 cm aperture.     

Multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability to climate change: insights from the agricultural sector in Mexico

Vulnerability to climate change was evaluated for three different time periods: 1990, 2000, and 2010. Our objective was to discuss the scope of a multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability. The method used 55 indicators—with emphasis on the agricultural sector in Mexico—of which 27 were updated for the year 2010 and 33 were retrospectively estimated for the year 1990. The results show that in the 20-year study period, the exposure of the municipalities (and inhabitants) has increased, and sensitivity and adaptive capacity have decreased. The number of municipalities vulnerable to climate change declined over the 20-year period. We found that calculating vulnerability by adding exposure and sensitivity and subtracting adaptive capacity (E?+?S???AC) can lead to unintentional underestimation of total vulnerability. When rating vulnerability, care must be taken in what is reported: the results differ for the number of inhabitants versus the number of municipalities. Our previous published vulnerability evaluation was for the year 2000, so we wanted to evaluate the sensitivity of some variables and the vulnerability formula itself we used in that moment. It is possible to evaluate the vulnerability multi-temporally, which allows to evaluate the sensibility and calibration of the variables and indicators used and the reconsideration of their application.     

Biogeographical drivers of ragweed pollen concentrations in Europe

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The drivers of spatial variation in ragweed pollen concentrations, contributing to severe allergic rhinitis and asthma, are poorly quantified. We analysed the...     

Stability analysis of Llerin Rockfill Dam: An in situ direct shear test

This paper analyzes the stability of the Llerin rockfill dam using Barton–Kjaernsli's shear criterion. To fit the parameters of this criterion, a direct shear test was designed that allows in situ calculation, using large-size samples of the shear stress at which failure is produced for different normal loads. These experimental values are then used to obtain more reliable values for the friction angle and the equivalent roughness of the rockfill material.The rockfill of Llerin dam is formed by a suitably ground gonfolite limestone rockfill that serves as a contention dam for a lagoon of mine tailings. The experimental results obtained in in situ tests were compared with those predicted by the shear criterion, subsequently determining the safety coefficient of the rockfill dam using the SLOPE computer program. We conclude that the values estimated via in situ testing permit the behaviour of the containment dam to be predicted more accurately.