Apparent and real bias in numerical transfer functions in palaeolimnology

We present an evaluation of the procedure by which model prediction bias is examined in palaeolimnological transfer function inference models. We argue that most of the prediction biases commonly reported in the literature are, in fact, fallacious, and are the artificial consequence of the inappropriate manner in which residuals are traditionally examined. We show that the extent of the specious model bias is entirely predictable from first principles and is essentially determined by the strength of the predictive model. We suggest that the analysis of residuals should always be examined as a function of the model's predictions and we discuss the implications of the old and new approaches.     

Oxidation and metal-insertion in molybdenite surfaces: evaluation of charge-transfer mechanisms and dynamics

Molybdenum disulfide (MoS₂), a layered transition-metal dichalcogenide, has been of special importance to the research community of geochemistry, materials and environmental chemistry, and geotechnical engineering. Understanding the oxidation behavior and charge-transfer mechanisms in MoS₂ is important to gain better insight into the degradation of this mineral in the environment. In addition, understanding the insertion of metals into molybdenite and evaluation of charge-transfer mechanism and dynamics is important to utilize these minerals in technological applications. Furthermore, a detailed investigation of thermal oxidation behavior and metal-insertion will provide a basis to further explore and model the mechanism of adsorption of metal ions onto geomedia.     

A Parameterization of Dry Thermals and Shallow Cumuli for Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

For numerical weather prediction models and models resolving deep convection, shallow convective ascents are subgrid processes that are not parameterized by classical local turbulent schemes. The mass flux formulation of convective mixing is now largely accepted as an efficient approach for parameterizing the contribution of larger plumes in convective dry and cloudy boundary layers. We propose a new formulation of the EDMF scheme (for Eddy Diffusivity\Mass Flux) based on a single updraft that improves the representation of dry thermals and shallow convective clouds and conserves a correct representation of stratocumulus in mesoscale models. The definition of entrainment and detrainment in the dry part of the updraft is original, and is specified as proportional to the ratio of buoyancy to vertical velocity. In the cloudy part of the updraft, the classical buoyancy sorting approach is chosen. The main closure of the scheme is based on the mass flux near the surface, which is proportional to the sub-cloud layer convective velocity scale w _*. The link with the prognostic grid-scale cloud content and cloud cover and the projection on the non- conservative variables is processed by the cloud scheme. The validation of this new formulation using large-eddy simulations focused on showing the robustness of the scheme to represent three different boundary layer regimes. For dry convective cases, this parameterization enables a correct representation of the countergradient zone where the mass flux part represents the top entrainment (IHOP case). It can also handle the diurnal cycle of boundary-layer cumulus clouds (EUROCS\ARM) and conserve a realistic evolution of stratocumulus (EUROCS\FIRE).     

Lake Neor reveals how mountain vegetation responded to 7000 years of hydroclimate variability in northwestern Iran

Palynological and geochemical analyses provide valuable information about modern and past climatic regimes and vegetation. The impact of climate and humans on past vegetation in the semi-arid areas of northwestern Iran has received increased interest in the wake of warming temperatures in the Middle East. Palynological and down-core XRF elemental abundances from a peat core from Lake Neor enabled a reconstruction of vegetational changes of the past 7000 years over the highlands of northwestern Iran. Periods of increased arboreal pollen (AP) types and high (Artemisia + Poaceae)/Chenopodiaceae ratios along with low titanium abundances, high percentages of total organic carbon, more negative δD values, and higher carbon accumulation rates suggest a relatively wet climate. These conditions have persisted during the periods 6700–6200, 5200–4450 and 3200–2200 cal a bp. The overall low AP values, substantial rise of Chenopodiaceae, high Ti abundances and low values of palaeo-redox proxies, are all evidences of a drier climate, as has been reconstructed for the periods 6200–5200 and 4030–3150 cal a bp and the last 2200 years. An important feature of the last centuries is the increase of anthropogenic and pastoral indicator pollen types. Our results may provide basic data to predict future trends in vegetation dynamics under future climate change in western Asia.     

Mid‐Weichselian interstadial in Kolari,western Finnish Lapland

Finnish Lapland is known as an area where numerous sites with sediments from Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods occur. Recent sedimentological observations and dating call for reinterpretation of the record, which shows a complicated Mid‐Weichselian ice‐sheet evolution within the ice‐divide zone. Here, a large, previously unstudied section from a former Hannukainen iron mine was investigated sedimentologically and dated with optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). Ten sedimentary units were identified displaying a variety of depositional environments (glacial, glaciolacustrine, fluvial and aeolian). They are all – except for the lowermost, deeply weathered till – interpreted to be of Mid‐ or Late Weichselian/Holocene age. Five OSL samples from fluvial sediments give ages ranging from 55 to 35 ka, indicating two MIS 3 ice‐free intervals of unknown duration. The Mid‐Weichselian interstadial was interrupted by a re‐advance event, which occurred later than 35 ka and caused glaciotectonic deformation, folding and stacking of older sediments. This new evidence emphasizes the importance of the Kolari area when unravelling the complex Late Pleistocene glacial history of northern Finland and adjacent regions.     

Segmentation and kinematics of the North America‐Caribbean plate boundary offshore Hispaniola

We explored the submarine portions of the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden Fault zone (EPGFZ) and the Septentrional–Oriente Fault zone (SOFZ) along the Northern Caribbean plate boundary using high‐resolution multibeam echo‐sounding and shallow seismic reflection. The bathymetric data shed light on poorly documented or previously unknown submarine fault zones running over 200 km between Haiti and Jamaica (EPGFZ) and 300 km between the Dominican Republic and Cuba (SOFZ). The primary plate‐boundary structures are a series of strike‐slip fault segments associated with pressure ridges, restraining bends, step overs and dogleg offsets indicating very active tectonics. Several distinct segments 50–100 km long cut across pre‐existing structures inherited from former tectonic regimes or bypass recent morphologies formed under the current strike‐slip regime. Along the most recent trace of the SOFZ, we measured a strike‐slip offset of 16.5 km, which indicates steady activity for the past ~1.8 Ma if its current GPS‐derived motion of 9.8 ± 2 mm a^?1 has remained stable during the entire Quaternary.     

Effect of vorticity on the generation of rogue waves due to dispersive focusing

The kinematic and dynamic of steep two-dimensional focusing wave trains on a shearing flow in deep water are investigated analytically and numerically. In the absence of waves, the vorticity due to the vertical gradient of the horizontal current velocity is assumed constant. A linear kinematic model based on the spatio-temporal evolution of the frequency is derived, predicting the focusing distance and time of a chirped wave packet in the presence of constant vorticity. Furthermore, a linear model, based on a Fourier integral, is used to describe the evolution of the free surface on shearing current. To compute the fully nonlinear evolution of the wave group in the presence of vorticity, a new numerical model, based on a BIEM approach, is developed. On the basis of these different approaches, the role of constant vorticity on rogue wave occurrence is analysed. Two main results are obtained: (1) the linear behaviour expected in the presence of constant vorticity is significantly different from what is commonly expected in the presence of constant current and (2) the nonlinear effects are found to be of significant influence in the case at hand.     

Formation by silicate–fluoride + phosphate melt immiscibility of REE-rich globular segregations within aplite dikes

Aplite dikes intruding the Proterozoic 1.42(±?3) Ga Longs Peak-St. Vrain Silver Plume-type peraluminous granite near Jamestown, Colorado, contain F, P, and rare earth element (REE)-rich globular segregations, with 40–46% REE, 3.7–4.8 wt% P₂O₅, and 5–8 wt% F. A combination of textural features and geochemical data suggest that the aplite and REE-rich globular segregations co-existed as two co-genetic liquids prior to their crystallization, and we propose that they are formed by silicate–fluoride?+?phosphate (+?S?+?CO₂) melt immiscibility following ascent, cooling, and decompression of what was initially a single homogeneous magma that intruded the granite. The REE distribution coefficients between the silica-rich aplites and REE-rich segregations are in good agreement with experimentally determined distribution coefficients for immiscible silicate–fluoride?+?phosphate melts. Although monazite-(Ce) and uraninite U–Th–Pb microprobe ages for the segregations yield 1.420(±?25) and 1.442(±?8) Ga, respectively, thus suggesting a co-genetic relationship with their host granite, ε_Nd1.42Ga values for the granites and related granitic pegmatites range from ??3.3 to ??4.7 (average ??3.9), and differ from the values for both the aplites and REE-rich segregations, which range from ??1.0 to ??2.2 (average ??1.6). Furthermore, the granites and pegmatites have (La/Yb)_N <50 with significant negative Eu anomalies, which contrast with higher (La/Yb)_N >100 and absence of an Eu anomaly in both the aplites and segregations. These data are consistent with the aplite dikes and the REE-rich segregations they contain being co-genetic, but derived from a source different from that of the granite. The higher ε_Nd1.42Ga values for the aplites and REE-rich segregations suggest that the magma from which they separated had a more mafic and deeper, dryer and hotter source in the lower crust or upper mantle compared to the quartzo-feldspathic upper crustal source proposed for the Longs Peak-St. Vrain granite.