Fast and Interactive Editing Tools for Spatial Models

Mathematical Geosciences - Multiple point statistics (MPS) algorithms allow generation of random fields reproducing the spatial features of a training image (TI). Although many MPS techniques offer...     

Quantifying 21st-century France climate change and related uncertainties

We tackle here the question of past and future climate change at sub-regional or country scale with the example of France. We assess France climate evolution during the 20th and 21st century as simulated by an exhaustive range of global climate simulations. We first show that the large observed warming of the last 30 years can be simulated only if anthropogenic forcings are taken into account. We also suggest that human influence could have made a substantial contribution to the observed 20th century multi-decadal temperature fluctuations. We then show that France averaged annual mean temperature at the end of the 21st century is projected to be on the order of 4.5 K warmer than in the early 20th century under the radiative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Summer changes are greater than their winter counterpart (6 K versus 3.7 K). Near-future (2020–2049) changes are on the order of 2.1 K (with 2.6 K in summer and 1.8 K in winter). Model projections also suggest a substantial summer precipitation decrease (−0.6 mm/day), in particular over southern France, and a moderate winter increase, (0.3 mm/day), mostly over the northernmost part of France. Uncertainties about the amplitude of these precipitation changes remain large. We then quantify the various sources of uncertainty and study how their ranking varies with time. We also propose a physically-based metric approach to reduce model uncertainty and illustrate it with the case of summer temperature changes. Finally, timing and amplitude of France climate change in case of a global average 2-K warming are investigated. Aggressive mitigation pathways (such as RCP2.6) are absolutely required to avoid crossing or barely exceeding the 2-K global threshold. However, France climate change requiring adaptation measures is still to be expected even if we achieve to remain below the 2-K global target.     

Did Saturn's rings form during the Late Heavy Bombardment?

The origin of Saturn's massive ring system is still unknown. Two popular scenarios—the tidal splitting of passing comets and the collisional destruction of a satellite—rely on a high cometary flux in the past. In the present paper we attempt to quantify the cometary flux during the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB) to assess the likelihood of both scenarios. Our analysis relies on the so-called “Nice model” of the origin of the LHB [Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., 2005. Nature 435, 459-461; Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.H., Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., 2005. Nature 435, 462-465; Gomes, R., Levison, H.F., Tsiganis, K., Morbidelli, A., 2005. Nature 435, 466-469] and on the size distribution of the primordial trans-neptunian planetesimals constrained in [Charnoz, S., Morbidelli, A., 2007. Icarus 188, 468-480]. We find that the cometary flux on Saturn during the LHB was so high that both scenarios for the formation of Saturn rings are viable in principle. However, a more detailed study shows that the comet tidal disruption scenario implies that all four giant planets should have comparable ring systems whereas the destroyed satellite scenario would work only for Saturn, and perhaps Jupiter. This is because in Saturn's system, the synchronous orbit is interior to the Roche Limit, which is a necessary condition for maintaining a satellite in the Roche Zone up to the time of the LHB. We also discuss the apparent elimination of silicates from the ring parent body implied by the purity of the ice in Saturn's rings. The LHB has also strong implications for the survival of the saturnian satellites: all satellites smaller than Mimas would have been destroyed during the LHB, whereas Enceladus would have had from 40% to 70% chance of survival depending on the disruption model. In conclusion, these results suggest that the LHB is the “sweet moment” for the formation of a massive ring system around Saturn.     

Assessment of suspended sediment transport in four alpine watersheds (France): influence of the climatic regime

High‐frequency water discharge and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) databases were collected for 3 years on four contrasted watersheds: the Asse and the Bléone (two Mediterranean rainfall regime watersheds) and the Romanche and the Ferrand (two rainfall–snowmelt regime watersheds). SSCs were calculated from turbidity recordings (1‐h time step), converted into SSC values. The rating curve was calculated by means of simultaneous SSC measurement taken by water sampling and turbidity recording. Violent storms during springtime and autumn were responsible for suspended sediment transport on the Asse and the Bléone rivers. On the Ferrand and the Romanche, a large share of suspended sediment transport was also caused by local storms, but 30% of annual fluxes results from snowmelt or icemelt which occurred from April to October. On each watershed, SSC up to 50 g l^?1 were observed. Annual specific fluxes ranged from 450 to 800 t km^?2 year^?1 and 40–80% of annual suspended sediment fluxes occurred within 2% of the time. These general indicators clearly demonstrate the intensity of suspended sediment transport on these types of watersheds. Suspended sediment fluxes proved to be highly variable at the annual scale (inter‐annual variability of specific fluxes) as well as at the event scale (through a hysteresis loop in the SSC/Q relationship) on these watersheds. In both cases, water discharge and precipitations were the main processes involved in suspended sediment production and transport. The temporal and spatial variability of hydro‐meteorological processes on the watershed provides a better understanding of suspended sediment dynamics. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Miocene to Quaternary slip history across the Qiulitag anticline in the southern Tianshan piedmont

In this study, we reconstruct the Miocene to Quaternary shortening history across the Qiulitag anticline, a complex fault‐bend fold located in southern Tianshan. We studied the Yaha and Kuche sections, where we combined surface structural measurements and seismic imaging to model the stratigraphic horizons. The history of folding was reconstructed based on magnetostratigraphic analyses and eight cosmogenic burial ages in Kuche. Pleistocene deformation rates were also quantified in Yaha based on a deformed fluvial terrace that we dated to ~67 ka using a cosmogenic depth profile. Our results suggest that the fold grew at a mean slip rate of 0.9–1.3 mm/a in both sections but accelerated to ~2.5 mm/a during the Pleistocene in Kuche. These results support a migration of the deformation towards the basin during the Pleistocene and suggest that most of the present deformation in the Tianshan is accommodated across the external structures of the range.     

How well are daily intense rainfall events captured by current climate models over Africa?

The ability of state-of-the-art climate models to capture the mean spatial and temporal characteristics of daily intense rainfall events over Africa is evaluated by analyzing regional climate model (RCM) simulations at 90- and 30-km along with output from four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) and coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5. Daily intense rainfall events are extracted at grid point scale using a 95th percentile threshold approach applied to all rainy days (i.e., daily rainfall ≥1 mm day^?1) over the 1998–2008 period for which two satellite-derived precipitation products are available. Both RCM simulations provide similar results. They accurately capture the spatial and temporal characteristics of intense events, while they tend to overestimate their number and underestimate their intensity. The skill of AGCMs and AOGCMs is generally similar over the African continent and similar to previous global climate model generations. The majority of the AGCMs and AOGCMs greatly overestimate the frequency of intense events, particularly in the tropics, generally fail at simulating the observed intensity, and systematically overestimate their spatial coverage. The RCM performs at least as well as the most accurate global climate model, demonstrating a clear added value to general circulation model simulations and the usefulness of regional modeling for investigating the physics leading to intense events and their change under global warming.     

On the Limitation of the H/V Spectral Ratio Using Seismic Noise as an Exploration Tool: Application to the Grenoble Valley (France), a Small Apex Ratio Basin

The H/V spectral ratio method based on seismic noise (HVSRN) was used in the Grenoble Basin (France), an Alpine valley characterized by a small apex ratio. The resonance frequencies obtained in the experiments were compared to the thickness of the sediments deduced from a microgravimetric survey and to the 1-D theoretical assessment of site responses. Given the abundance of data on the sediments and depth of the basin, the values of the theoretical resonance frequency f_o can be determined quite accurately. However, it has been observed that the effects of basin geometry can disturb f_o measurements using the HVSR method, in particular for a case like the Grenoble Basin, which has a small apex ratio (w/H) and strong suspected 2-D and/or 3-D effects. Interpretation of f_o values in terms of bedrock depth gives rise to estimation errors of about 10% in certain cases, with the most significant errors (>50%) occurring on the edges of the basin, where subsurface layers are characterised by larger heterogeneities and where the basin topography is accentuated. This study suggests that great care must be taken when using the HVSRN method as an exploration tool, at least in valleys with a small apex ratio.     

Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on South Korean streamflow variability

Deciphering the mechanisms through which the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects hydrometeorological parameters in the tropics and extratropics is of great interest. We investigate climatic teleconnections between warm or cold phases of ENSO and streamflow patterns over South Korea using an empirical methodology designed to detect regions showing a strong and consistent hydroclimatic signal associated with ENSO. We calculate not only spatial coherence values by monthly streamflow composite formed over 2‐year ENSO cycle and the first harmonic fit to detect candidate regions but also temporal consistency rates by aggregate composite and index time series to determine core regions. As a result, the core regions, namely, the Han river basin and the Nakdong river basin, are detected with a high level of response of ENSO phenomena to streamflow patterns. The ENSO composites for both core regions indicate drier (wetter) conditions in early autumn of the warm (cold) episode years and wetter (drier) conditions from winter to spring of the following year. For both regions, the spatial coherences are over 92% (82%) and the temporal consistencies are 71% (75%) during the El Niño (La Niña) events. In addition, for the core regions identified by composite‐harmonic analysis for both extreme episodes, the results of comparative analyses by using correlation, annual cycle, and Wilcoxon rank sum test indicate that 2 opposite phases‐streamflow relationships have a tendency of sign reversal of the streamflow anomaly. Also, the positive departures during the El Niño years show more coherent and strong responses than the negative anomalies in the La Niña events. In conclusion, South Korea experiences climatic teleconnection between ENSO forcing and midlatitude streamflow patterns.