Going to the Extremes

Projections of changes in climate extremes are critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Modeling advances now provide the opportunity of utilizing global general circulation models (GCMs) for projections of extreme temperature and precipitation indicators. We analyze historical and future simulations of ten such indicators as derived from an ensemble of 9 GCMs contributing to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), under a range of emissions scenarios. Our focus is on the consensus from the GCM ensemble, in terms of direction and significance of the changes, at the global average and geographical scale. The climate extremes described by the ten indices range from heat-wave frequency to frost-day occurrence, from dry-spell length to heavy rainfall amounts. Historical trends generally agree with previous observational studies, providing a basic sense of reliability for the GCM simulations. Individual model projections for the 21st century across the three scenarios examined are in agreement in showing greater temperature extremes consistent with a warmer climate. For any specific temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models and across scenarios, while substantial differences appear in the relative magnitude of the trends under different emissions rates. Depictions of a wetter world and greater precipitation intensity emerge unequivocally in the global averages of most of the precipitation indices. However, consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered. This analysis provides a first overview of projected changes in climate extremes from the IPCC-AR4 model ensemble, and has significant implications with regard to climate projections for impact assessments. An erratum to this article is available at . An erratum to this article can be found at     

Potential impacts of climate change on storage conditions for commercial agriculture: an example for potato production in Michigan

Climate change is anticipated to influence all parts of agricultural production systems. However, the potential impacts on crop storage have rarely been assessed, even though storage is an important component of a grower’s marketing strategy and is essential for the continuous supply of a commodity for processors, exporters, and consumers. The Michigan chip-processing potato industry provides an example of the importance of crop storage. Michigan is the largest producer of chip-processing potatoes in the USA, and potatoes are stored on farms from September to June. We use an ensemble of climate projections developed for three future time slices (early, mid, and late century) from 16 climate models forced by three greenhouse gas concentration pathways to assess future changes in potato storage conditions. Our findings indicate an increased future demand for ventilation and/or refrigeration immediately after harvest and again in spring and early summer, even for the early-century time slice. Furthermore, the period of reliably cold storage temperatures during winter is anticipated, when averaged across all models, to shorten by 11–17 days in Michigan’s primary production area and 14–20 days in the more southern secondary area by mid-century, and by 15–29 days and 31–35 days, respectively, for the northern and southern production areas by late century. The level of uncertainty, as indicated by the ensemble range, is large, although the sign of the projected changes in storage parameters is consistent. This case study provides an example of the potentially large effects of climate change on the storage conditions for agricultural commodities.     

The Effect of Wind-Turbine Wakes on Summertime US Midwest Atmospheric Wind Profiles as Observed with Ground-Based Doppler Lidar

We examine the influence of a modern multi-megawatt wind turbine on wind and turbulence profiles three rotor diameters ( $D$ D ) downwind of the turbine. Light detection and ranging (lidar) wind-profile observations were collected during summer 2011 in an operating wind farm in central Iowa at 20-m vertical intervals from 40 to 220 m above the surface. After a calibration period during which two lidars were operated next to each other, one lidar was located approximately $2D$ 2 D directly south of a wind turbine; the other lidar was moved approximately $3D$ 3 D north of the same wind turbine. Data from the two lidars during southerly flow conditions enabled the simultaneous capture of inflow and wake conditions. The inflow wind and turbulence profiles exhibit strong variability with atmospheric stability: daytime profiles are well-mixed with little shear and strong turbulence, while nighttime profiles exhibit minimal turbulence and considerable shear across the rotor disk region and above. Consistent with the observations available from other studies and with wind-tunnel and large-eddy simulation studies, measurable reductions in wake wind-speeds occur at heights spanning the wind turbine rotor (43–117 m), and turbulent quantities increase in the wake. In generalizing these results as a function of inflow wind speed, we find the wind-speed deficit in the wake is largest at hub height or just above, and the maximum deficit occurs when wind speeds are below the rated speed for the turbine. Similarly, the maximum enhancement of turbulence kinetic energy and turbulence intensity occurs at hub height, although observations at the top of the rotor disk do not allow assessment of turbulence in that region. The wind shear below turbine hub height (quantified here with the power-law coefficient) is found to be a useful parameter to identify whether a downwind lidar observes turbine wake or free-flow conditions. These field observations provide data for validating turbine-wake models and wind-tunnel observations, and for guiding assessments of the impacts of wakes on surface turbulent fluxes or surface temperatures downwind of turbines.     

The tectono-sedimentary evolution of a hyper-extended rift basin: the example of the Arzacq–Mauléon rift system (Western Pyrenees,SW France)

In this paper, we present a sedimentary and structural analysis that together with maps, sections and new Ar/Ar data enable to describe the tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Mauléon hyper-extended rift basin exposed in the W-Pyrenees. Hyper-extension processes that ultimately resulted in exhuming mantle rocks are the result of the subsequent development of two diachronous detachment systems related to two evolutional stages of rifting. An initial Late Aptian Early Albian crustal thinning phase is first recorded by the development of a crustal necking zone controlled by the north-vergent Southern Mauléon Detachment system. During a subsequent exhumation phase, active faulting migrates to the north with the emplacement of the Northern Mauléon detachment system that exhumed north section thinned continental crust and mantle rocks. This diachronous crustal thinning and exhumation processes are also recorded by the diachronous deposition of syn-tectonic sedimentary tracts above the two supra-detachment sub-basins. Syn-tectonic sedimentary tracts record the progressive exhumation of footwall rocks along detachment systems. Tectonic migration from the southern to the northern Mauléon Detachment system is recorded by the coeval deposition of “sag” deposits above the necking zone basin and of syn-tectonic tracts above exhumed rocks north section. Located on a hanging-wall situation related to the Mauléon hyper-extension structures, the Arzacq Basin also records a major crustal thinning phase as shown by its subsidence evolution so as by deep seismic images. The absence of major top-basement structures and its overall sag morphology suggest that crustal thinning processes occurred by decoupled extension of lower crustal levels contrasting with the Southern Mauléon Detachment system. Reconciling observations from the Mauléon and Arzacq Basins, we finally propose in this paper that they were the result of one and the same asymmetric crustal thinning and exhumation processes, where extension is accommodated into the upper crust in the Mauléon Basin (lower plate basin) and relayed in ductile lower crust below the Arzacq Basin (upper plate basin).     

Spatial distribution of lead and lead isotopes in soil B-horizon, forest-floor humus, grass (Avenella flexuosa) and spruce (Picea abies) needles across the Czech Republic

Lead concentrations were determined in samples of soil B-horizon (N = 258), forest-floor humus (O-horizon, N = 259), grass (Avenella flexuosa, N = 251) and spruce (Picea abies, N = 253) needles (2nd year) collected at the same locations evenly spread over the territory of the Czech Republic at an average density of 1 site/300 km². Median Pb concentrations differ widely in the four materials: soil B-horizon: 27 mg/kg (3.3-220 mg/kg), humus: 78 mg/kg (19-1863 mg/kg), grass: 0.37 mg/kg (0.08-8 mg/kg) and spruce needles: 0.23 mg/kg (0.07-3 mg/kg). In the Pb distribution maps for humus, grass and spruce a number of well-known Pb-contamination sources are indicated by unusually high concentrations (e.g., the Pb smelter at Pribram, the metallurgical industry in the NE of the Czech Republic and along the Polish border, as well as the metallurgical industry in Upper Silesia and Europe’s largest coal-fired power plant at Bogatynia, Poland). The ratio ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb was determined in all four materials. The median value of the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb isotope ratio in the soil B-horizon is 1.184 (variation: 1.145-1.337). In both humus and grass the median value for the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb isotope ratio is 1.162 (variation: 1.130-1.182), in spruce needles the median ratio is 1.159 (variation: 1.116-1.186). In humus, grass and spruce needles the known contamination sources are all marked by higher ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb isotope ratios in the maps. Furthermore, the soil B-horizon, humus, grass and spruce needles show distinctly different spatial distribution patterns of the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb isotope ratios. The B-horizon does not provide a viable background value for metal concentrations in the O-horizon or plant materials. None of the maps provides evidence for the importance of traffic-related emissions for the observed isotope ratios at the scale of the Czech Republic.     

Dynamics of planets in retrograde mean motion resonance

In a previous paper (Gayon and Bois 2008a), we have shown the general efficiency of retrograde resonances for stabilizing compact planetary systems. Such retrograde resonances can be found when two-planets of a three-body planetary system are both in mean motion resonance and revolve in opposite directions. For a particular two-planet system, we have also obtained a new orbital fit involving such a counter-revolving configuration and consistent with the observational data. In the present paper, we analytically investigate the three-body problem in this particular case of retrograde resonances. We therefore define a new set of canonical variables allowing to express correctly the resonance angles and obtain the Hamiltonian of a system harboring planets revolving in opposite directions. The acquiring of an analytical “rail” may notably contribute to a deeper understanding of our numerical investigation and provides the major structures related to the stability properties. A comparison between our analytical and numerical results is also carried out.     

Oceanographic and climatic implications of the Palaeocene carbon isotope maximum

We have compared detailed planktonic and benthonic foraminiferal carbon and oxygen isotope records from the Palaeocene and early Eocene successions at DSDP Site 577 (Shatsky Rise, North Pacific), a composite section derived from DSDP Leg 74 sites (Walvis Ridge, South Atlantic) and a composite section from ODP Leg 113 sites (Maud Rise, Weddell Sea). The δ¹³C records of Palaeocene and early Eocene Foraminifera at Site 577 and the Leg 74 sites show that an increase in δ¹³C values in surface waters at 64 Ma (end of Zone P1) resulted in increased vertical carbon isotope gradients (δ¹³C) between surface and deeper dwelling planktonic foraminifera, and between surface-dwelling planktonics and benthonic foraminifera which became progressively steeper until the iniddle Late Palaeocene (Zone P4). This steepening also occurs in the latest Palaeocene of the composite Leg 113 section and can be explained by an increase in surface ocean productivity. This increase in productivity probably resulted in an expansion of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). Benthonic δ¹³C values increased during the late Palaeocene in Site 577 and the composite Leg 74 section, suggesting that the Palaeocene carbon isotope maximum was composed of both within-ocean reservoir (increased surface water productivity) and between-reservoir (organic carbon burial) ftactionation effects. The benthonic δ¹³C increase lags the surface ocean δ¹³C increase in the early Palaeocene (63–64 Ma) suggesting that surface water productivity increase probably led an increase in the burial rate of organic carbon relative to carbonate sedimentation. Moreover, inter-site δ¹³C comparisons suggest that the locus of deep to intermediate water formation for the majority of the Palaeocene and the earliest Eocene was more likely to have been in the high southern latitudes than in the lower latitudes. Oxygen isotope data show a decline in deeper water temperatures in the early and early late Palaeocene, followed by a temperature increase in the late Palaeocene and across the PalaeoceneEocene boundary. We speculate that these changes in deeper water temperatures were related to the flux of CO₂ between the oceans and the atmosphere through a mechanism operating at the high southern latitudes.     

A Multilevel Analysis of Agricultural Trade and Socioeconomic Inequality in Rural Mozambique

This study uses a mixed methodology to investigate the relationship between agricultural trade and socioeconomic inequality in Mozambique at multiple geographical scales. The quantitative analysis examines all rural regions of the country and a nationally representative sample of rural households, whereas the qualitative analysis focuses primarily on two case study villages. Research findings suggest that social and geographical context greatly influence the relationships between agricultural trade and regional inequality. Trade-related effects on economic inequality—and the social status of traders—vary across Mozambican regions. Results suggest that trade increases inequality in regions where traders have low social status, but reduces inequality in areas where they have high social status. These findings suggest that social and economic factors work together to shape landscapes of inequality.