Simulating the dispersal of tephra from the 1991 Pinatubo eruption: Implications for the formation of widespread ash layers

PUFF and HAZMAP, two tephra dispersal models developed for volcanic hazard mitigation, are used to simulate the climatic 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. PUFF simulations indicate that the majority of ash was advected away from the source at the level of the tropopause (~ 17 km). Several eruptive pulses injected ash and SO₂ gas to higher altitudes (~ 25 km), but these pulses represent only a small fraction (~ 1%) of the total erupted material released during the simulation. Comparison with TOMS images of the SO₂ cloud after 71 and 93 h indicate that the SO₂ gas originated at an altitude of ~ 25 km near the source and descended to an altitude of ~ 22 km as the cloud moved across the Indian Ocean. HAZMAP simulations indicate that the Pinatubo tephra fall deposit in the South China Sea was formed by an eruption cloud with the majority of the ash concentrated at a height of 16–18 km. Results of this study demonstrate that the largest concentration of distal ash was transported at a level significantly below the maximum eruption column height (~ 40 km) and at a level below the calculated height of neutral buoyancy (~ 25 km). Simulations showed that distal ash transport was dominated by atmospheric circulation patterns near the regional tropopause. In contrast, the movement of the SO₂ cloud occurred at higher levels, along slightly different trajectories, and may have resulted from gas/particle segregations that took place during intrusion of the Pinatubo umbrella cloud as it moved away from source.     

On the vertical structure of the Rhine region of freshwater influence

An idealised three-dimensional numerical model of the Rhine region of fresh water influence (ROFI) was set up to explore the effect of stratification on the vertical structure of the tidal currents. Prandle’s dynamic Ekman layer model, in the case of zero-depth-averaged, cross-shore velocities, was first used to validate the response of the numerical model in the case of barotropic tidal flow. Prandle’s model predicted rectilinear tidal currents with an ellipse veering of up to 2%. The behaviour of the Rhine ROFI in response to both a neap and a spring tide was then investigated. For the given numerical specifications, the Rhine plume region was well mixed over the vertical on spring tide and stratified on neap tide. During spring conditions, rectilinear tidal surface currents were found along the Dutch coast. In contrast, during neap conditions, significant cross-shore currents and tidal straining were observed. Prandle’s model predicted ellipse veering of 50%, and was found to be a good indicator of ellipticity magnitude as a function of bulk vertical eddy viscosity. The modelled tidal ellipses showed that surface currents rotated anti-cyclonically whereas bottom currents rotated cyclonically. This caused a semi-diurnal cross-shore velocity shearing which was 90° out of phase with the alongshore currents. This cross-shore shear subsequently acted on the horizontal density gradient in the plume, thereby causing a semi-diurnal stratification pattern, with maximum stratification around high water. The same behaviour was exhibited in simulations of a complete spring–neap tidal cycle. This showed a pattern of recurring stratification on neaps and de-stratification on springs, in accordance with observations collected from field campaigns in the 1990’s. To understand the increase in ellipticities to 30% during neaps and the precise shape of the vertical ellipse structure, stratification has to be taken into account. Here, a full three-dimensional numerical model was employed, and was found to represent the effect of de-coupling of the upper and lower layers due to a reduction of mixing at the pycnocline.     

Holocene Dune Activity in the Thar Desert,India

The Thar Desert dune system in north-west India and eastern Pakistan provides a rich archive of past environmental, geomorphological and climatic change. Much of the knowledge about the timing of dune accumulation in the Thar stems from scattered and sporadic records, based on older luminescence dating protocols. If the Thar dune record is to be incorporated within a growing multiproxy framework of past climate and environmental dynamics, it is necessary to generate a systematic record of the timing of dunefield accumulation. From this, relationships to climate and other drivers of dune activity may then be better established. To this end, an intensive programme of field sampling and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating was carried out from a dunefield in the east-central Thar Desert. This study presents the first detailed Holocene dune accumulation history from the region, and sheds light on the development of the multi-generational parabolic dune systems. In contrast to previously published work, we identify the importance of the Holocene and the last millennium as periods with a number of preserved accumulation phases. OSL ages suggest that accumulation was persistent during the early and mid-Holocene (within 11.7-5.5 ka), late Holocene (2-1 ka), as well as two major phases in the last millennium (600 – 200 a and within the last 70 a). Potential drivers of dune mobility in the last century include a strong anthropogenic dimension. Rapid net accumulation is recorded in the last 70 years, with rates varying between 2 and 5 m/year, in an environment where agricultural pressures have increased dramatically with the advent of irrigation schemes expanding into dunefield areas. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nutrient availability in support of Karenia brevis blooms on the central West Florida Shelf: What keeps Karenia blooming?

Identifying nutrient sources, primarily nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), sufficient to support high biomass blooms of the red tide dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis, has remained problematic. The West Florida Shelf is oligotrophic, yet populations >10⁶ cells L⁻¹ frequently occur and blooms can persist for months. Here we examine the magnitude and variety of sources for N and P that are available to support blooms. Annual average in situ or background concentrations of inorganic N in the region where blooms occur range 0.02–0.2 μM while inorganic P ranges 0.025–0.24 μM. Such concentrations would be sufficient to support the growth of populations up to ∼3×10⁴ cells L⁻¹ with at least a 1 d turnover rate. Organic N concentrations average 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than inorganic N, 8–14 μM while organic P concentrations average 0.2–0.5 μM. Concentrations of organic N are sufficient to support blooms >10⁵ cells L⁻¹ but the extent to which this complex mixture of N species is utilizable is unknown. Other sources of nutrients included in our analysis are aerial deposition, estuarine flux, benthic flux, zooplankton excretion, N₂-fixation, and subsequent release of organic and inorganic N by Trichodesmium spp., and release of N and P from dead and decaying fish killed by the blooms. Inputs based on atmospheric deposition, benthic flux, and N₂-fixation, were minor contributors to the flux required to support growth of populations >2.6×10⁴ cells L⁻¹. N and P from decaying fish could theoretically maintain populations at moderate concentrations but insufficient data on the flux and subsequent mixing rates does not allow us to calculate average values. Zooplankton excretion rates, based on measured zooplankton population estimates and excretion rates could also supply all of the N and P required to support populations of 10⁵ and 10⁶ cells L⁻¹, respectively, but excretion is considered as “regenerated” nutrient input and can only maintain biomass rather than contribute to “new” biomass. The combined estuarine flux from Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, and the Caloosahatchee River can supply a varying, but at times significant level of N and P to meet growth and photosynthesis requirements for populations of approximately 10⁵ cells L⁻¹ or below. Estimates of remineralization of dead fish could supply a significant proportion of bloom maintenance requirements but the rate of supply must still be determined. Overall, a combination of sources is required to maintain populations >10⁶ cells L⁻¹.     

An accurate momentum advection scheme for a z-level coordinate models

In this paper, we focus on a conservative momentum advection discretisation in the presence of z-layers. While in the 2D case conservation of momentum is achieved automatically for an Eulerian advection scheme, special attention is required in the multi-layer case. We show here that an artificial vertical structure of the flow can be introduced solely by the presence of the z-layers, which we refer to as the staircase problem. To avoid this staircase problem, the z-layers have to be remapped in a specific way. The remapping procedure also deals with the case of an uneven number of layers adjacent to a column side, thus allowing one to simulate flooding and drying phenomena in a 3D model.     

The next step in shallow coral reef monitoring: Combining remote sensing and in situ approaches

Most current coral reef management is supported by mapping and monitoring limited in record length and spatial extent. These deficiencies were addressed in a multidisciplinary study of cyclone impacts on Aboré Reef, New-Caledonia. Local knowledge, high thematic-resolution maps, and time-series satellite imagery complemented classical in situ monitoring methods. Field survey stations were selected from examination of pre- and post-cyclone images and their post-cyclone coral communities documented in terms of substrata, coral morphologies, live coral cover, and taxonomy. Time-series maps of hierarchically defined coral communities created at spatial scales documenting the variability among communities (29-45 classes) and suggesting the processes that affected them. The increased spatial coverage and repeatability of this approach significantly improved the recognition and interpretation of coral communities’ spatio-temporal variability. It identified precise locations of impacted areas and those exhibiting coral recovery and resilience. The approach provides a comprehensive suite of information on which to base reef-scale conservation actions.     

Building SSPs for climate policy analysis: a scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation

The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) that will be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a “backwards” approach based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios using statistical cluster-finding algorithms. This backwards approach could help inform the development of SSPs to ensure the storylines focus on the driving forces most relevant to distinguishing between the SSPs. In this illustrative analysis, we find that energy sobriety, equity and convergence prove most important towards explaining future difference in challenges to adaptation and mitigation. The results also demonstrate the difficulty in finding explanatory drivers for a middle scenario (SSP2). We argue that methodologies such as that used here are useful for broad questions such as the definition of SSPs, and could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers in the field of climate change.