Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community

A technique to evaluate the risk of storm tides (the combination of a storm surge and tide) under present and enhanced greenhouse conditions has been applied to Cairns on the north-eastern Australian coast. The technique combines a statistical model for cyclone occurrence with a state-of-the-art storm surge inundation model and involves the random generation of a large number of storm tide simulations. The set of simulations constitutes a synthetic record of extreme sea-level events that can be analysed to produce storm tide return periods. The use of a dynamic storm surge model with overland flooding capability means that the spatial extent of flooding is also implicitly modelled. The technique has the advantage that it can readily be modified to include projected changes to cyclone behaviour due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Sea-level heights in the current climate for return periods of 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years have been determined to be 2.0 m, 2.3 m, 3.0 m and 3.4 m respectively. In an enhanced greenhouse climate (around 2050), projected increases in cyclone intensity and mean sea-level see these heights increase to 2.4 m, 2.8 m, 3.8 m and 4.2 m respectively. The average area inundated by events with a return period greater than 100 years is found to more than double under enhanced greenhouse conditions.     

Alteration processes in the CV chondrite parent body based on analysis of NWA 2086 meteorite

Analysis of the NWA 2086 CV3 chondrite showed a matrix/chondrule ratio of 52%, similar to Bali, Mokoia, and Grosanaja. Nearly twice as many chondrule fragments as intact ones demonstrate that an early fragmentation phase occurred prior to final accretion. After this event, no substantial mechanical change or redeposition is evident. Rims with double‐layered structures were identified around some chondrules, which, in at least one case, is attributed to an accretionary origin. The rim's outer parts with a diffuse appearance were formed by in situ chemical alteration. During this later process, Mg content decreased, Fe content increased, and olivine composition was homogenized, producing a rim composition close to that of the matrix. This alteration occasionally happened along fractures and at confined locations, and was probably produced by fluid interactions. Iron oxides are the best candidate for a small grain‐sized alteration product; however, technical limitations in the available equipment did not allow exact phase identification. These results suggest that NWA 2086 came from a location (possible more deeply buried) in the CV parent body than Mokoia or Bali, and suffered less impact effects—although there is no evidence of sustained thermal alteration. This meteorite may represent a sample of the CV parent asteroid interior and provide a useful basis for comparison with other CV meteorites in the future.     

The Martian magnetic field

The magnetic field measurements of the Mars 2, 3 and 5 spacecraft have been interpreted by Dolginov and co-workers to be consistent with an intrinsic planetary magnetic moment of 2.5 × 10²² gauss cm³. They base this interpretation mainly on the apparent size of the obstacle responsible for deflecting the solar wind, the lack of dependence of the sign of the magnetic field in the wake region of the planet on the sign of the component of the interplanetary field radially out from the sun, and an apparent encounter of the Mars spacecraft with the planetary field. When examined in detail this evidence is very suspect. A detailed criticism of the arguments by Dolginov and co-workers for an intrinsic field has appeared elsewhere. Herein we summarize this criticism and present, in an appendix, a compendium of the Mars 3 and 5 magnetic field data transformed into a coordinate system in which the details of the interaction are more easily visualized. Many of these data have not been published in this form previously.     

Marine risk assessment: linear alkylbenzenesulponates (LAS) in the North Sea

The fate of linear alkylbenzenesulponates (LAS) in estuaries and coastal areas of the North Sea has been characterized with simple environmental models. The predicted concentration range in the estuaries around the North Sea (0.9-9 microg LAS l(-1)) was validated by monitoring data (1-9 microg LAS l(-1)). In offshore sites of the North Sea, it is estimated--and experimentally verified for a few sites--that the LAS concentration is below analytical detection limit (i.e., 0.5 microg LAS l(-1)). The effects of LAS on marine organisms have been reviewed. For short-term acute tests, there was no significant difference (p = 0.83) between the mean LC50 values of freshwater and marine organisms (mainly pelagic species tested, 4.1 and 4.3 mg LAS l(-1), respectively). For longer-term chronic tests, it appeared that the sensitivity (mean no-observed effect concentration (NOEC) value) of marine and freshwater organisms (0.3 and 2.3 mg LAS l(-1), respectively) was significantly different pt-test = 0.007). The predicted no-effect-concentrations (PNEC) were 360 and 31 microg LAS l(-1), for freshwater and marine pelagic communities, respectively. Given that the maximum expected estuarine and marine concentrations are 3 to > 30 times lower than the PNEC, the risk of LAS to pelagic organisms in these environments is judged to be low.     

CLIMAP SSTs re-revisited

Since the 1976 publication of the CLIMAP ice age sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction showing a 1–2 ^∘C tropical cooling a substantial debate has arisen as to whether tropical SSTs may instead have been 4–5^∘ colder than present. Herein I review the arguments for large SST variations and question a number of key findings, particularly the validity of ice-age coral SST estimates and “down-projecting” tropical snowline changes to the surface. GCM results indicate that an intermediate solution requiring ∼2.5 ^∘C warm pool cooling is consistent with most quantitative low elevation surface land data and is small enough to allow the persistence of tropical biota in the ocean during glacial times. The proposal reduces estimated ice-age climate sensitivity (for a doubling of CO₂) from a “high-end” sensitivity of about 4.5 ^∘C (for a 5–6 ^∘C tropical cooling) to a “mid-range” sensitivity of about 3.0 ^∘C for a 2.5 ^∘C warm-pool decrease. Received: 28 July 1999 /Accepted: 12 August 1999     

Phytoplankton diversity and chlorophyll-A in a polluted estuary

The quantity of phytoplankton in Newark Bay, New Jersey as indicated by chlorophyll-a content of the water, is low in the winter and early spring, and fluctuates greatly during the spring and summer. Chlorophyll-a concentrations are generally less than 20 μg/l until April. Between April and August, three phytoplankton blooms were indicated by chlorophyll-a concentrations as high as 81.4 μg/l. Net phytoplankton diversity values indicated generally eutrophic conditions; however, there was no significant correlation between diversity and chlorophyll-a concentrations. A role of nannoplankton in blooms is indicated.