Anthropogenic influence of trace metals in sediments of the Al-Qilt catchment,West Bank,Palestine: 1. Contamination factor and bonding forms

Al-Qilt catchment, located east of both the Ramallah and Jerusalem districts is strongly influenced by waste waters discharged from Israeli settlements and Palestinian urban centers. In this research, our aim was to verify the chemical status of the surface sediments from the Al-Qilt catchment during 2008/2009. For this purpose, 36 surface sediment samples were collected and analyzed with ICP/MS within the fraction of below 63 μm. The extent of contamination of trace metals from Al-Qilt sediments sites were measured by evaluating the contamination factors (CF) from digestion by aqua regia and additionally by sequential extraction steps using the BCR-method. On the basis of the calculated CF, sediments appear particularly contaminated with Zn, Cu, Ag, Sn, Cd, Hg, Bi, and B. Three regions, Wadi Sweanit, Ras Al-Qilt, and Qalandiah have been identified as critical points of contamination. Trace metal inputs to the Al-Qilt catchment need to be kept under strict control in the future since Ras Al-Qilt is considered as one of the important springs in the area and is used for domestic purposes. Moreover, it will be susceptible to pollution if no action is taken to decrease the pollution at the upstream of Al-Qilt.     

The age of the Roter Kamm impact crater,Namibia: Constraints from 40Ar-39Ar,K-Ar,Rb-Sr,fission track,and 10Be-26Al studies

Abstract The well-preserved 2.5 km diameter Roter Kamm impact crater is located in the Namib desert in Namibia. The impact has occurred in Precambrian granitic and granodioritic orthogneisses of the 1200–900 Ma old Namaqualand Metamorphic Complex which were partly covered by Gariep metasediments; the granites are invaded by quartz veins and quartz-feldspar-pegmatites. Previous geological field evidence suggested a crater age of about 5–10 Ma. In order to constrain this age, we selected a set of basement rocks (granites, granodiorites) exposed at the crater rim and studied the Rb-Sr, K-Ar, ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar, and ¹⁰Be-²⁶Al isotopic systems as well as apatite fission track ages of these samples. The Rb-Sr isotopic systematics confirm the derivation of these samples from the Namaqualand basement (age about 1.29 Ga), which underwent Damaran orogenesis at about 650 Ma. No basement rocks with Rb-Sr ages younger than about 410 Ma were identified. The K-Ar ages of pseudotachylite and melt breccia samples show that these samples are dominated by incompletely degassed fragments of basement rocks, with some retaining their original metamorphic ages of about 470 Ma. The apatite fission track ages range from 20–28 Ma, which may be interpreted as an extension of the 25 Ma Burdigalian peneplanation event, or as incomplete resetting of the apatite fission tracks during the impact event. The ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al exposure age of a quartz sample isolated from a quartz-pegmatite was found to be 150 ka; it is likely that the exposure of the sample began after material covering it had been removed by erosion 150 ka ago. Two glassy fractions extracted from a rim granite were dated by ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar analysis. One sample gives practically a plateau age of 3.7 ± 0.3 Ma, while the other gives a minimum age of 3.6 Ma. The best available age estimate for the Roter Kamm crater is therefore 3.7 ± 0.3 Ma.     

THE IMPACT-FLOOD CONNECTION: DOES IT EXIST?*

In a recent article in Terra Nova, Kristan-Tollmann and Tollmann (1994) suggested that the Biblical Flood can be explained by seven fragments of a comet that impacted the ocean at seven locations on Earth at 03.00h (C.E.T.) on 23 September, 9545 yr BP. We demonstrate that all the ‘geological proofs’ that allegedly support their conclusions are not supported by the available data on impact cratering. Their hypothesis is based on insufficient and ambiguous data, selective citation, and incomplete comprehension of previous research.     

The age of the Saltpan impact crater,South Africa

Abstract— The 1.13-km-diameter Pretoria Saltpan impact crater is located about 40 km NNW of Pretoria, South Africa. The crater is situated in 2.05 Ga old Nebo granite of the Bushveld Complex that is locally intruded by about 1.3 Ga old volcanic rocks. In 1988, a borehole was drilled in the center of the crater. At depths >90 m, breccias were found that contained minerals with characteristic shock-metamorphic features, thus confirming the impact origin of the crater. Fragments of impact glass were recovered from the melt breccias and several hundred sub-millimeter-sized glass fragments were subjected to fission track analysis. The measurements were complicated by the inhomogeneous composition of the impact glasses, but analysis of a large number of tracks yielded an age of 220 ± 52 ka for the Saltpan crater.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. We propose a method for decisionmaking under uncertain global and regional changes called ‘Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways’. We base our approach on two complementary approaches for designing adaptive plans: ‘Adaptive Policymaking’ and ‘Adaptation Pathways’. Adaptive Policymaking is a theoretical approach describing a planning process with different types of actions (e.g. ‘mitigating actions’ and ‘hedging actions’) and signposts to monitor to see if adaptation is needed. In contrast, Adaptation Pathways provides an analytical approach for exploring and sequencing a set of possible actions based on alternative external developments over time. We illustrate the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach by producing an adaptive plan for long-term water management of the Rhine Delta in the Netherlands that takes into account the deep uncertainties about the future arising from social, political, technological, economic, and climate changes. The results suggest that it is worthwhile to further test and use the approach.     

Living with limits: growth,resources, and climate change

Is it possible for all of humanity to enjoy the standards of living of today's high-income countries? What would happen if these limits were reached, perhaps because of climate change or a shortage of natural resources essential to production? How would society manage – or fail to manage – such limits? Notwithstanding the current financial and economic crises, these are perhaps the biggest questions confronting our species (and of a host of other species, who are the victims of our decisions). The article begins by considering the biggest economic event of our lifetimes – the ‘great convergence’ and its implications for the demand for resources. The discussion then turns to a specific limit on our development, climate change, which is different from most other limits, because it involves a global public good: the atmosphere. What such limits might mean for our civilization is discussed. One can persuade people to tackle climate change only if those concerned with the dangers persuade ordinary people that action will not come at the expense of their prosperity.