Temporal downscaling: a comparison between artificial neural network and autocorrelation techniques over the Amazon Basin in present and future climate change scenarios

Several studies have been devoted to dynamic and statistical downscaling for both climate variability and climate change. This paper introduces an application of temporal neural networks for downscaling global climate model output and autocorrelation functions. This method is proposed for downscaling daily precipitation time series for a region in the Amazon Basin. The downscaling models were developed and validated using IPCC AR4 model output and observed daily precipitation. In this paper, five AOGCMs for the twentieth century (20C3M; 1970–1999) and three SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) were used. The performance in downscaling of the temporal neural network was compared to that of an autocorrelation statistical downscaling model with emphasis on its ability to reproduce the observed climate variability and tendency for the period 1970–1999. The model test results indicate that the neural network model significantly outperforms the statistical models for the downscaling of daily precipitation variability.     

郑州市大气气溶胶数浓度和质量浓度时空变化研究

利用激光粒子计数器和颗粒物自动测定仪测量的郑州市大气气溶胶粒子的数浓度和质量浓度,分析了局地气溶胶的干沉降和湿沉降以及郑州市大气气溶胶数浓度和质量浓度的时空变化,结果表明:郑州市局地区域大气气溶胶中粒径≥2μm的粒子,沉降速度随粒径的增大而增大,而粒径≤0.3μm的粒子,沉降速度变化不大;湿沉降率大于干沉降率。气溶胶浓度有明显的日变化特征,17:00-19:00为最高峰,6:00-9:00为次高峰,这是早晨及下午上下班汽车运行高峰期向大气排放的尾气和汽车扬尘所致。在垂直分布上,45-80 m处的粒子数多于1.5 m处的粒子数;在水平分布上,交通建筑区内的浓度高于其他功能区的浓度。     

The role of climate variability and fire in early and mid Holocene forest dynamics of southern Sweden

The objective of this study was to investigate the possible links between regional climate, fire and vegetation at the small spatial scale during the early and mid Holocene in southern Sweden using pollen, plant macrofossil and charcoal records from a small bog. The fire history was compared with climate reconstructions inferred from various proxy records in the study region. High fire activity is related to dry and warm climate around 8550, 7600, 5500–5100 and 4500 cal. a BC. Low fire activity ca. 6500–6000 and 4750 BC may correspond to the widespread ‘8.2 k event’ (ca. 6200 BC) recorded across the North Atlantic region, and a later, brief period of increased precipitation, respectively. The decrease in broadleaved trees culminating ca. 6500–6000 BC correlates with the ‘8.2 k event’. A long mid Holocene period with low fire activity (ca. 4350–1000 BC) agrees with the pattern emerging for Europe from the global charcoal database, and may correspond to generally wetter and cooler conditions. High fire activity ca. 8550 BC probably triggered the local establishment of Corylus. Warmer and drier conditions (and high fire activity) ca. 7600 BC might have favoured the establishment of Alnus, Quercus and Tilia. The fire‐adapted Pinus maintained important populations throughout the early and mid Holocene. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A special perturbation method in orbital dynamics

The special perturbation method considered in this paper combines simplicity of computer implementation, speed and precision, and can propagate the orbit of any material particle. The paper describes the evolution of some orbital elements based in Euler parameters, which are constants in the unperturbed problem, but which evolve in the time scale imposed by the perturbation. The variation of parameters technique is used to develop expressions for the derivatives of seven elements for the general case, which includes any type of perturbation. These basic differential equations are slightly modified by introducing one additional equation for the time, reaching a total order of eight. The method was developed in the Grupo de Dinámica de Tethers (GDT) of the UPM, as a tool for dynamic simulations of tethers. However, it can be used in any other field and with any kind of orbit and perturbation. It is free of singularities related to small inclination and/or eccentricity. The use of Euler parameters makes it robust. The perturbation forces are handled in a very simple way: the method requires their components in the orbital frame or in an inertial frame. A comparison with other schemes is performed in the paper to show the good performance of the method.     

Atmospheric dust variability from Arabia and China over the last 500,000 years

Atmospheric mineral dust aerosols affect Earth’s radiative balance and are an important climate forcing and feedback mechanism. Dust is argued to have played an important role in past natural climate changes through glacial cycles, yet temporal and spatial dust variability remain poorly constrained, with scientific understanding of uncertainties associated with radiative perturbations due to mineral dust classified as “very low”. To advance understanding of the dust cycle, we present a high-resolution dust record from the Red Sea, sourced principally from Arabia, with a precise chronology relative to global sea level/ice volume variability. Our record correlates well with a high-resolution Asian dust record from the Chinese Loess Plateau. Importing our age model from the Red Sea to the Chinese Loess Plateau provides a first detailed millennial-scale age model for the Chinese loess, which has been notoriously difficult to date at this resolution and provides a basis for inter-regional correlation of Chinese dust records. We observe a high baseline of dust emissions from Arabia and China, even through interglacials, with strong superimposed millennial-scale variability. Conversely, the distal EPICA Dome C Antarctic ice core record, which is widely used to calculate the radiative impact of dust variations, appears biased to sharply delineated glacial/interglacial contrasts. Calculations based on this Antarctic dust record will therefore overestimate the radiative contrast of atmospheric dust loadings on glacial/interglacial timescales. Additional differences between Arabian/Asian and circum-Saharan records reveal that climate models could be improved by avoiding ‘global mean’ dust considerations and instead including large-scale regions with different dust source variability.     

射电源的谱指数

文章研究了162个射电源,其中包括了47个BL Lacs ,21个galaxies ,94个平谱射电类星体( FSRQs ) ,这些源是通过Michigan大学的26m的射电望远镜观测的。大多数源都包含了3个波段的观测数据:4 .8GHz ,8GHz和14 .5GHz。文中计算了3个子类的平均的流量密度,并且得到了相应的谱指数(αwei) ,αBL=0 .08±0 .28 ,αGAL=-0 .91±0 .32 ,αFSRQ=-0 .14±0 .4。同时也讨论了这些源的射电性质,其中包含了谱指数,流量密度和红移之间的关系,流量密度和谱指数之间的关系。     

英语教学网站辅助大学英语教学的实践与反思

详细探讨了英语教学网站在大学英语教学中的辅助作用.并在自主学习模式这一教学理念的指导下,介绍了英语教学网站的实现过程和管理使用方式,同时论证了在大学英语教学中应用教学网站所具有的独特优势以及注意事项.     

The role of small‐scale fold and fault development in seismogenic zones: example of the western Huércal‐Overa Basin (eastern Betic Cordillera,Spain)

The NW–SE shortening between the African and the Eurasian plates is accommodated in the eastern Betic Cordillera along a broad area that includes large N‐vergent folds and kilometric NE–SW sinistral faults with related seismicity. We have selected the best exposed small‐scale tectonic structures located in the western Huércal‐Overa Basin (Betic Cordillera) to discuss the seismotectonic implications of such structures usually developed in seismogenic zones. Subvertical ESE–WNW pure dextral faults and E–W to ENE–ESW dextral‐reverse faults and folds deform the Quaternary sediments. The La Molata structure is the most impressive example, including dextral ESE–WNW Neogene faults, active southward‐dipping reverse faults and associated ENE–WSW folds. A molar M1 assigned to Mimomys savini allows for precise dating of the folded sediments (0.95–0.83 Ma). Strain rates calculated across this structure give ～0.006 mm a^?1 horizontal shortening from the Middle Pleistocene up until now. The widespread active deformations on small‐scale structures contribute to elastic energy dissipation around the large seismogenic zones of the eastern Betics, decreasing the seismic hazard of major fault zones. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.