西太平洋暖池区热带波动的天气效应

为了探讨西太平洋暧地区热带波动的天气效应，利用1980年2－9月140°E日本静止卫星纬度时间剖面卫星云图，分析了5d和14d左右周期热带波动云的演变特征，井综合分析了14d周期的云系演变型式与流场的关系，为预报热带中期天气变化规律提供了依据；热带波动中30－60d大气低频振荡的云量变化最显著，北半球夏半年热带波动的天气压主要在10°N－0°，各半年在10°N－10°S，超过这个区域热带云量的港分布型式就有明显的变化。     

A note on solitary waves along potential vorticity fronts on anf-plane

The effects of short waves on the propagration of velocity discontinuity along the interface of two uniform potential vorticity, zones on anf-plane is examined. It is shown, using a multiple scale analysis, that the dispersion introduced by the short waves can balance the nonlinear steepening effects predicted by the semigeostrophic theory. The time evolution of a shear disturbance along the front is governed by a Korteweg-de Vries equation. Numerical solutions of the solitary waves along the front are presented.     

The Effect of Human Exclusion on the Population Structure of Key-Hole Limpets Fissurella crassa and F. limbata on the Coast of Central Chile

Abstract. We describe the basic ecology of two key-hole limpets, Fissurella crassa and Fissurella limbata , which are heavily harvested by coastal shellfishermen (mariscadores) at the rocky intertidal of central Chile. The ecological role of human predation on these species was assessed. Anthropic exclusion from a stretch of the rocky intertidal at Las Cruces (non-harvested area) for about two and a half years resulted in changes of the densities and size distributions of these fissurelid species as compared to populations in control zones (harvested area). Differential human predation generates, on key-hole limpets, responses of different intensities related to the accessibility of man to the mesohabitats (sheltered platforms, exposed platforms and vertical walls) and fringes of the intertidal (mid-low intertidal and Lessonia nigrescens fringe). Thus, size distributions and mean densities of both fissurelids differ widely between the harvested and non-harvested areas on both platform habitats but not on vertical walls. In the mid-low intertidal fringe, differences are greater than in the less accessible L. nigrescens intertidal fringe. Moreover, we discuss the way in which other species, directly harvested by mariscadores (i. e., the mollusc Concholepas concholepas) can affect the keyhole limpet populations of central Chile rocky shores. Finally, we highlight the ecological role of these limpets on the dynamics of intertidal ecosystems and how they can modify community landscape.     

Mean flow and variability in the southwestern East Sea

The Ulleung Basin is one of three deep basins that are contained within the East/Japan Sea. Current meter moorings have been maintained in this basin beginning in 1996. The data from these moorings are used to investigate the mean circulation pattern, variability of deep flows, and volume transports of major water masses in the Ulleung Basin with supporting hydrographic data and help from a high-resolution numerical model. The bottom water within the Ulleung Basin, which must enter through a constricted passage from the north, is found to circulate cyclonically—a pattern that seems prevalent throughout the East Sea. A strong current of about 6 cms⁻¹ on average flows southward over the continental slope off the Korean coast underlying the northward East Korean Warm Current as part of the mean abyssal cyclonic circulation. Volume transports of the northward East Korean Warm Current, and southward flowing East Sea Intermediate Water and East Sea Proper Water are estimated to be 1.4 Sv (1 Sv=10⁻⁶ m³ s⁻¹), 0.8 Sv, and 3.0–4.0 Sv, respectively. Deep flow variability involves a wide range of time scales with no apparent seasonal variations, whereas the deep currents in the northern East Sea are known to be strongly seasonal.     

人工养殖点带石斑鱼弧菌病病原菌的分离及鉴定

广东、海南两省多个海水网箱养殖场养殖的点带石斑鱼(Epinephelus malabaricus)发生严重的弧菌病,从海南三亚和广东深圳的发病鱼病灶上分离到2株致病性细菌VAL02和VAL00,经人工回接感染实验证明这2株菌引起点带石斑鱼弧菌病,VAL02对点带石斑鱼苗的半致死量是2.25×10~5 cfu/g。经形态及生理生化特征分析,鉴定出VAL02及VAL00均为溶藻弧菌。应用药敏纸片法研究了22种化学疗剂对VAL02及溶藻弧菌标准株的生长抑制作用,发现VAL02对氯霉素、氟哌酸、卡那霉素和乙酰螺旋霉素等产生耐药性,对复方新诺明和环丙沙星等敏感。     

中国数字地质调查系统的基本构架 及其核心技术的实现

数字地质调查系统是贯穿整个地质矿产资源调查全过程的软件,涵盖地质矿产调查、矿产资源勘查、矿体模拟、品住估计、资源量估算、矿山开采系统优化等内容。考虑数字地质调查系统的应用技术层面,从数据“层”模型、数据流“池”技术、不同阶段数据模型继承技术、数据互操作技术等几个方面讨论了核心技术及其实现,通过基于无缝一体化技术的数据采集、管理、综合处理与成果表达,在实体或矿块的矿床建模技术与品住估计、储量估算等方面展现了全地质调查过程的数字化,不但为地质人员应用高新技术降低了门坎,而且极大地提高了研究精度和效率,丰富了成果的表现形式和服务形式。随着数字地质调查系统的完善和应用水平的提高,数字地质调查系统将成为中国地质调查的主流软件体系。     

Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

Pulsar radio emission

Radio emission by pulsars is calculated from first principles. In an almost current-free magnetosphere, the two charged components (of the unsteadily escaping pair plasma) have different (and varying) bulk Lorentz factors. Curvature radiation emitted by the more energetic component is thus locally coherent, (so-called antenna mechanism). Strong enough seed signals cause the relativistically streaming charges to enhance their radiation, via an induced drift that can largely exceed the curvature drift. This amplification mechanism is similar to - but different from - that of a maser; we call it a MAIDER. Maximal amplification occurs at an (emission) altitude where the two components have sufficiently separated in energy though not yet separated too strongly in space.     

Boundary-layer parameterizations for applied dispersion modeling over urban areas

Many applied dispersion models require the knowledge of boundary-layer parameters such as sensible heat flux,Q _H , friction velocity,u _*, and turbulent energy components, _w and _v . Formulas are suggested for calculating these parameters over a wide variety of types of ground surfaces, based on simple observations of wind speed near the ground and fractional cloud cover, and specification of constants such as roughness length, albedo, and soil moisture availability. Observations ofu _*,Q _H , _w , and _v during field experiments in St. Louis and Indianapolis are used to test the formulas for urban sites. Relative errors of about ±20% in the predictions are seen to occur whenu _*,Q _H , _w , and _v are large. However, when these quantities are small (e.g.,u _* < 0.2 m/s), the errors in the predictions are as large as the mean value of the quantity itself.In addition, it is concluded from studies of available field data and theories that the magnitude of _w is not well-known at elevations above about 100m during the late afternoon and night. Some simple parameterizations for _w . are suggested that are consistent with the observed steady decrease in ground-level concentration in the afternoon and the sudden increase in concentration that can occur a few hours after sunset due to wind shears associated with a low-level jet, for continuous plumes emitted from moderate to tall stacks.     

Application of back-propagation networks in debris flow prediction

Debris flows have caused serious loss of human lives and a lot of damage to properties in Taiwan over the past decades. Moreover, debris flows have brought massive mud causing water pollution in reservoirs and resulted in water shortage for daily life locally and affected agricultural irrigation and industrial usages seriously. A number of methods for prediction of debris flows have been studied. However, the successful prediction ratio of debris flows cannot always maintain a stable and reliable level. The objective of this study is to present a stable and reliable analytical model for occurrence predictions of debris flows. This study proposes an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) model that was constructed by seven significant factors using back-propagation (BP) algorithm. These seven factors include (1) length of creek, (2) average slope, (3) effective watershed area, (4) shape coefficient, (5) median size of soil grain, (6) effective cumulative rainfall, and (7) effective rainfall intensity. A total of 178 potential cases of debris flows collected in eastern Taiwan were fed into the ANN model for training and testing. The average ratio of successful prediction reaching 93.82% demonstrates that the presented ANN model with seven significant factors can provide a stable and reliable result for the prediction of debris flows in hazard mitigation and guarding systems.