Spatiotemporal estimation of snow depth using point data from snow stakes,digital terrain models,and satellite data

Snow availability in Alpine catchments plays an important role in water resources management. In this paper, we propose a method for an optimal estimation of snow depth (areal extension and thickness) in Alpine systems from point data and satellite observations by using significant explanatory variables deduced from a digital terrain model. It is intended to be a parsimonious approach that may complement physical‐based methodologies. Different techniques (multiple regression, multicriteria analysis, and kriging) are integrated to address the following issues: We identify the explanatory variables that could be helpful on the basis of a critical review of the scientific literature. We study the relationship between ground observations and explanatory variables using a systematic procedure for a complete multiple regression analysis. Multiple regression models are calibrated combining all suggested model structures and explanatory variables. We also propose an evaluation of the models (using indices to analyze the goodness of fit) and select the best approaches (models and variables) on the basis of multicriteria analysis. Estimation of the snow depth is performed with the selected regression models. The residual estimation is improved by applying kriging in cases with spatial correlation. The final estimate is obtained by combining regression and kriging results, and constraining the snow domain in accordance with satellite data. The method is illustrated using the case study of the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Southern Spain). A cross‐validation experiment has confirmed the efficiency of the proposed procedure. Finally, although it is not the scope of this work, the snow depth is used to asses a first estimation of snow water equivalent resources.     

Pre‐Alpine discordant granitic dikes in the metamorphic core of the Betic Cordillera: tectonic implications

Pegmatite dikes bearing andalusite crosscut foliation S₂ in Alpujarride gneisses and schists. Post‐S₂ andalusite is transposed by a foliation S₃, defined by fibrolite, which affects the dikes. The dikes represent highly differentiated granitic magmas with low REE and Zr contents and a positive Eu anomaly. U‐Pb SHRIMP dating of magmatic zircons provided Pan‐African ages (cores) and late Variscan ages (rims). However, U‐rich rims also provided metamorphic Alpine ages, supporting a polyorogenic tectonometamorphic history for pre‐Mesozoic Alpujarride rocks.     

Generalized plasticity state parameter‐based model for saturated and unsaturated soils. Part 1: Saturated state

The behavior of granular materials is known to depend on its loose or dense nature, which in turns depends both on density and confining pressure. Many models developed in the past require the use of different sets of constitutive parameters for the same material under different confining pressures. The purpose of this paper is to extend a basic generalized plasticity model for sands proposed by Pastor, Zienkiewicz and Chan by modifying the main ingredients of the model flow—rule, loading–unloading discriminating direction and plastic modulus—to include a dependency on the state parameter. The proposed model is tested against the available experimental data on three different sands, using for each of them a single set of material parameters, finding a reasonably good agreement between experiments and predictions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three‐dimensional shakedown solutions for anisotropic cohesive‐frictional materials under moving surface loads

Previous work on three‐dimensional shakedown analysis of cohesive‐frictional materials under moving surface loads has been entirely for isotropic materials. As a result, the effects of anisotropy, both elastic and plastic, of soil and pavement materials are ignored. This paper will, for the first time, develop three‐dimensional shakedown solutions to allow for the variation of elastic and plastic material properties with direction. Melan's lower‐bound shakedown theorem is used to derive shakedown solutions. In particular, a generalised, anisotropic Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion and cross‐anisotropic elastic stress fields are utilised to develop anisotropic shakedown solutions. It is found that shakedown solutions for anisotropic materials are dominated by Young's modulus ratio for the cases of subsurface failure and by shear modulus ratio for the cases of surface failure. Plastic anisotropy is mainly controlled by material cohesion ratio, the rise of which increases the shakedown limit until a maximum value is reached. The anisotropic shakedown limit varies with frictional coefficient, and the peak value may not occur for the case of normal loading only. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Likely effects of climate change on groundwater availability in a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain

Groundwater resources are typically the main fresh water source in arid and semi‐arid regions. Natural recharge of aquifers is mainly based on precipitation; however, only heavy precipitation events (HPEs) are expected to produce appreciable aquifer recharge in these environments. In this work, we used daily precipitation and monthly water level time series from different locations over a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain to identify the critical threshold value to define HPEs that lead to appreciable aquifer recharge in this region. Wavelet and trend analyses were used to study the changes in the temporal distribution of the chosen HPEs (≥20 mm day^?1) over the observed period 1953–2012 and its projected evolution by using 18 downscaled climate projections over the projected period 2040–2099. The used precipitation time series were grouped in 10 clusters according to similarities between them assessed by using Pearson correlations. Results showed that the critical HPE threshold for the study area is 20 mm day^?1. Wavelet analysis showed that observed significant seasonal and annual peaks in global wavelet spectrum in the first sub‐period (1953–1982) are no longer significant in the second sub‐period (1983–2012) in the major part of the ten clusters. This change is because of the reduction of the mean HPEs number, which showed a negative trend over the observed period in nine clusters and was significant in five of them. However, the mean size of HPEs showed a positive trend in six clusters. A similar tendency of change is expected over the projected period. The expected reduction of the mean HPEs number is two times higher under the high climate scenario (RCP8.5) than under the moderate scenario (RCP4.5). The mean size of these events is expected to increase under the two scenarios. The groundwater availability will be affected by the reduction of HPE number which will increase the length of no aquifer recharge periods (NARP) accentuating the groundwater drought in the region. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Generalized plasticity state parameter‐based model for saturated and unsaturated soils. Part II: Unsaturated soil modeling

The aim of this paper is to extend the generalized plasticity state parameter‐based model presented in part 1 to reproduce the hydro‐mechanical behavior of unsaturated soils. The proposed model is based on two pairs of stress–strain variables and a suitable hardening law taking into account the bonding—debonding effect of suction and degree of saturation. A generalized state parameter for unsaturated state is proposed to reproduce soil behavior using a single set of material parameters. Generalized plasticity gives a suitable framework to reproduce not only monotonic stress path but also cyclic behavior. The hydraulic hysteresis during a drying—wetting cycle and the void ratio effect on the hydraulic behavior is introduced. Comparison between model simulations and a series of experimental data available, both cohesive and granular, are given to illustrate the accuracy of the enhanced generalized plasticity equation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Throughfall patterns in sugarcane and riparian forest: understanding the effect of sugarcane age and land use conversion

Sugarcane is an annual crop with a dynamic canopy that changes over time mainly because of genetic adaptation. There is uncertainty about the temporal trends of throughfall (TF) in this important commercial crop. In the present paper, we used troughs to measure TF in a third and fourth ratoon and subsequently in a fourth and fifth ratoon. Additional measurements were carried out in an adjacent riparian forest. There were no significant differences between cycles of sugarcane, growth phases and riparian forest. The TF results for ratoon crop and riparian forest in 2011/2012 were 76% and 79.5% of gross rainfall, respectively, while in 2012/2013, they were 79% and 78%, respectively. However, TF was remarkably lower in the riparian forest relative to ratoon from the second half of the culm formation and elongation phase (280 days after harvest) until harvest. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Sima de los Huesos (Burgos,northern Spain): palaeoenvironment and habitats of Homo heidelbergensis during the Middle Pleistocene

Interpreting how environmental dynamics respond to global climate change and how this has affected human evolution and dispersal is an on-going topic of debate. During the early Middle Pleistocene (～0.6–0.4 Ma), as compared to earlier, environmental conditions were relatively more stable, with longer climatic cycles alternating between open and forested landscapes. During this interval, humans spread successfully providing an important number of fossil sites where fossils or tools are reported. The Atapuerca-Sima de los Huesos (Burgos, northern Spain) site (Atapuerca-SH) is one of the earliest localities with hominin evidence in the European Middle Pleistocene, with the most important accumulation of Homo heidelbergensis so far. We have analyzed the abundant faunal record from Sima de los Huesos, which is mainly comprised of carnivores, in order to approach an interpretation of the palaeoenvironmental circumstances where these hominids inhabited within the Sierra. Other sites from Sierra de Atapuerca referred to the same Faunal Unit (FU 6), are roughly contemporaneous, and include important ungulates, which are here analyzed with Atapuerca-SH. Additional information provided by isotopic analysis helps elucidate the ancient ecology of taxa present in Sima de los Huesos allowing for an accurate portrayal of the setting in which humans lived. The timing of the spread of Homo heidelbergensis is dominated by a relative climatic and environmental stability and points to a landscape dominated by savannah-like open woodland.     

Slab–mantle flow interaction: influence on subduction dynamics and duration

We investigate the influence of mantle flow relative to the lithosphere on subduction dynamics. We use 2D thermo‐mechanical models assuming incompressible non‐Newtonian fluid rheology. Different mantle flow velocities consistent with absolute plate motion models are tested, as well as both directions of flow, either sustaining or opposing slab dip. The effects of different inflow/outflow velocity profiles, slab strengths and upper–lower mantle viscosity contrasts are also evaluated. Slab dip deviations between models with opposite mantle flow directions range from 37° for relatively strong slabs (η_max = 10²⁵ Pa s) to 50° for weaker slabs (η_max = 10²⁴ Pa s), accounting for a significant amount of natural slab dip variability. For imposed mantle flow supporting the slab, the initial stage of slab steepening is followed by a stage of continuous slab dip decrease. This slab shallowing eventually leads to mantle wedge closure, subduction cessation and slab break‐off, possibly driving subduction flips.     

8000 years of vegetation history in the northern Iberian Peninsula inferred from the palaeoenvironmental study of the Zalama ombrotrophic bog (Basque‐Cantabrian Mountains,Spain)

This paper focuses on pollen, spores, non‐pollen palynomorphs (NPPs) and certain geochemical elements from the ombrotrophic blanket bog of Zalama (Basque‐Cantabrian Mountains, northern Iberian Peninsula), with the support of a robust chronology based on 17 AMS ¹⁴C dates. The main results related to the last 8000 years show that, during the early middle Holocene, pines and deciduous forests were the most extensive tree formations. At the beginning of the succession, pines reach 44%, showing regional presence, whereas after 7600 cal. a BP, deciduous forests were particularly abundant. From c. 6500 cal. a BP the pollen diagram constructed from our samples shows the first anthropogenic evidence, linked with the new economic practices related to the Neolithic of the Basque‐Cantabrian Mountains. From 3300 cal. a BP the expansion of Fagus sylvatica is particularly clear, and has since then become one of the dominant forest species in this region. We also discuss the Holocene evolution of other noteworthy plant communities in southwestern Europe, such as Taxus baccata, Juglans and shrublands.