冬春500hPa高度场与中国夏季降雨场的场相关分析

利用场相关理论，分析了中国大陆6－8月降水场与前期1－5月各月北半球500hPa高度切之间的关系，得到一些有意义的结果，并提出一种研究场与杨之间相关关系的长期天气预报思路和方法。     

Internal soil moisture and piezometric responses to rainfall-induced shallow slope failures

Better knowledge regarding internal soil moisture and piezometric responses in the process of rainfall-induced shallow slope failures is the key to an effective prediction of the landslide and/or debris flow initiation. To this end, internal soil moisture and piezometric response of 0.7-m-deep, 1.5-m-wide, 1.7-m-high, and 3.94-m-long semi-infinite sandy slopes rested on a bi-linear impermeable bedrock were explored using a chute test facility with artificial rainfall applications. The internal response time defined by the inflection point of the soil moisture and piezometric response curves obtained along the soil–bedrock interface were closely related to some critical failure states, such as the slope toe failure and extensive slope failures. It was also found that the response times obtained at the point of abrupt bedrock slope decrease can be used as indicators for the initiation of rainfall-induced shallow slope failures. An investigation of spatial distributions of soil water content, ω (or degrees of saturation, S_r), in the slope at critical failure states shows that the 0.2 m – below – surface zone remains unsaturated with S_r 40–60%, regardless of their distances from the toe and the rainfall intensity. Non-uniform distributions of ω (or S_r) along the soil–bedrock interface at critical failure states were always associated with near-saturation states (S_r 80–100%) around the point of bedrock slope change or around the transient ‘toe’ upstream of the slumped mass induced by the retrogressive failure of the slope. These observations suggest the important role of the interflow along the soil–bedrock interface and the high soil water content (or high porewater pressure) around the point of bedrock slope deflection in the rainfall-induced failure of sandy slopes consisting of shallow impermeable bedrocks. The present study proposes an ‘internal response time’ criterion to substantiate the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow slope failures. It is believed that the ‘internal response time’ reflects the overall characteristics of a slope under rainfall infiltration and can be as useful as the conventional meteorology-based threshold times. The ‘internal response time’ theory can be generalized via numerical modeling of slope hydrology, slope geology and slope stability in the future.     

防震减灾行业下一代IPv6信息网络发展研究

下一代网络(next generation network,缩写为NGN)是以高性能、可扩展、可运营、可管理、更安全的下一代电信网络为基础,实现高质晕流媒体应用、无线和移动应用、多样化终端没备、按需的传输质量控制和更高安全保障的新型网络,IPv6是下一代网络的关键支撑技术.IPv6网是F一代IP网,不等同于下一代网络,IPv6网只有在满足下一代网络的必要特征后才可成为下一代网络.     

汶川Ms8．0地震的短临地电波动（潮汐力谐振和共振波-HRT波）前兆

简要介绍了强震短临前兆的HRT波模型,和用HRT波模型分析强震前地电观测资料预测未来强震的时间、地点、震级三要素方法。用HRT波模型分析了2008年汶川MS8.0地震前四川红格地电台的记录资料,提取出了汶川MS8.0地震前短临前兆信息。     

Migration and enrichment of trace elements of Lower Palaeozoic carbonate rock strata in Beijing

Analyses of trace elements of the Lower Palaeozoic carbonate rock strata in Beijing show that the contents of As, Hg, F increase from primary carbonate rocks to weathered carbonate rocks and from primary carbonate rocks to the soil coexisting with carbonate rocks, but the distribution regularity of S is not obvious. In the whole weathered stages, the sorption of As is mainly affected by Fe2O3. In soil Fe2O3 is also the main affecting factor of Hg enrichment. The main existing forms of Hg in primary carbonate rocks should simply be physical adsorption, coprecipitation and false isomorphous form between surface of carbonate rock and Hg. In soil the enrichment of F has little relationship with sul-fides and Fe2O3. In primary carbonate rocks, F is mainly absorbed by sulfides and clay minerals, etc. Weathered samples have closer genetic relationships with primary carbonate rocks. This also implies that weathered carbonate rocks have the close existing forms to that of primary carbonate rocks. In primary carbonate rocks FeS2 and FeS are the main forms of S, and sulfides have fixation effect on some heavy metals, whereas in weathered carbonate rocks and soil the fixation effect is weakened.     

双层散体材料桩复合地基固结理论

研究了考虑涂抹效应和应力集中效应的双层散体材料桩复合地基固结解析解及其工程应用,分不同情况讨论了特征根的可能变化规律,也讨论了解析解转化为双层竖井地基以及双层天然地基的普遍适用性。研究发现,固结速率随井径比的减小、水平向渗透系数比的增大和桩体刚度的增大而增加;底面排水条件对双层散体材料桩复合地基的固结影响,在井径比不是很大的情况下影响不大;是否考虑应力集中效应对计算结果影响较大。     

Application of support vector machine to synthetic earthquake prediction

This paper introduces the method of support vector machine (SVM) into the field of synthetic earthquake pre-diction, which is a non-linear and complex seismogenic system. As an example, we apply this method to predict the largest annual magnitude for the North China area (30°E-42°E, 108°N-125°N) and the capital region (38°E-41.5°E, 114°N-120°N) on the basis of seismicity parameters and observed precursory data. The corresponding prediction rates for the North China area and the capital region are 64.1% and ...     

Numerical simulation for the coupling effect of local atmospheric circulations over the area of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province

Using the model system MM5.V3 and multi-layer grid nesting technique, we have done a multi-scale numerical simulation over the area of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province to analyze the temperature and wind field there and study its local circulations. The results show a coupling effect of Urban Heat Island Circulation (UHIC), Mountain Valley Breeze (MVB) and Sea Land Breeze (SLB) occurs in this area when the synoptic system is weak. The SLB can penetrate deep into the mainland for about 200 km when it is blooming. MVB can extend to south and cover almost the whole plain area in Beijing. Both MVB and SLB are diurnal periodical; meanwhile the phase of MVB drops behind that of SLB for about six hours. As a local circulation, the UHIC weakens the two circulations above, and it also has a diurnal period. As a result, the coupling effect of circulations reveals not only different features in spring-summer period and autumn-winter period in a year but also the difference between early morning to noonday and afternoon to night in a day. We noted the diffusion of contamination over the area around Beijing, and found the steady presence of a transport routine of contamination over North-China throughout the year caused by the Coupling Effect mentioned above. This find is important for studying the environment pollution in this area. Supported by Central Public Welfare Special Fund Program for the Institute and Higher Education (Grant No. IUMKY200701), Public Welfare Special Fund Program (Meteorology) of China Scientific and Technological Ministry (Grant Nos. CYHY20080620, CYHY200706004), Spread New Technology Program of China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. CMATG2007M15) and Urban Meteorology Scientific Research Fund Program of the Institute of Beijing Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. UMRF200702)     

On Dark Gravitational Wave Standard Sirens as Cosmological Inference and Forecasting the Constraint on Hubble Constant using Binary Black Holes Detected by Deci-hertz Observatory

Gravitational wave(GW)signals from compact binary coalescences can be used as standard sirens to constrain cosmological parameters if their redshift can be meas...     

气象条件对小麦白粉病发生影响的研究

这１０多年来江苏省代表站的小麦白粉病始病期、严重率和同期的气象资料,采用滑动相关普查方法,分析了气象条件对白粉病发生的影响作用,发现对白粉病始病期和严重率有着显著的影响,但影响作用具有阶段性和区域性。在此基础上建立了白粉病的预报模式。