Simulated impacts of artificial groundwater recharge and discharge on the source area and source volume of an Atlantic Coastal Plain stream, Delaware, USA

A numerical groundwater-flow model was used to characterize the source area and volume of Phillips Branch, a baseflow-dominated stream incising a highly permeable unconfined aquifer on the low relief Delmarva Peninsula, USA. Particle-tracking analyses indicate that the source area (5.51 km²) is ～20% smaller than the topographically defined watershed (6.85 km²), and recharge entering ～37% of the surface watershed does not discharge to Phillips Branch. Groundwater residence time within the source volume ranges from a few days to almost 100 years, with 95% of the volume “flushing” within 50 years. Artificial discharge from groundwater pumping alters the shape of the source area and reduces baseflow due to the interception of stream flow paths, but has limited impacts on the residence time of groundwater discharged as baseflow. In contrast, artificial recharge from land-based wastewater disposal substantially reduces the source area, lowers the range in residence time due to the elimination of older flow paths to the stream, and leads to increased discharge to adjacent surface-water bodies. This research suggests that, in this and similar hydrogeologic settings, the “watershed” approach to water-resource management may be limited, particularly where anthropogenic stresses alter the transport of soluble contaminants through highly permeable unconfined aquifers.     

Out-of-plane librations of spinning tethered satellite systems

We analyze the out-of-plane librations of a tethered satellite system that is nominally rotating in the orbit plane. To isolate the librational dynamics, the system is modeled as two point masses connected by a rigid rod with the system mass center constrained to an unperturbed circular orbit. For small out-of-plane librations, the in-plane motion is unaffected by the out-of-plane librations and a solution for the in-plane motion is determined in terms of Jacobi elliptic functions. This solution is used in the linearized equation for the out-of-plane librations, resulting in a Hill’s equation. Floquet theory is used to analyze the Hill’s equation, and we show that the out-of-plane librations are unstable for certain ranges of in-plane spin rate. For relatively high in-plane spin rates, the out-of-plane librations are stable, and the Hill’s equation can be approximated by a Mathieu’s equation. Approximate solutions to the Mathieu’s equation are determined, and we analyze the dominant characteristics of the out-of-plane librations for high in-plane spin rates. The results obtained from the analysis of the linearized equations of motion are compared to numerical simulations of the nonlinear equations of motion, as well as numerical simulations of a more realistic system model that accounts for tether flexibility. The instabilities discovered from the linear analysis are present in both the nonlinear system and the more realistic system model. The approximate solutions for the out-of-plane librations compare well to the nonlinear system for relatively high in-plane rotation rates, and also capture the significant qualitative behavior of the flexible system.     

A compositional interpretation of trans-neptunian objects taxonomies

Trans-neptunian objects (TNOs) are a population of small objects orbiting the Sun beyond Neptune. Because of their distance they are difficult to observe spectroscopically, but a large body of photometric observations is available and growing. TNOs are important tracers of the evolution of the outer Solar System and key when testing current dynamical evolution theories. Previous statistical studies of the colors of TNOs have yielded useful but limited results regarding the chemical history and evolution of these bodies.With the aim at obtaining compositional information on the small and distant TNOs we introduce a statistical cluster analysis (labelled albedo) based on colors and published albedos of TNOs. We compare it to a previous taxonomy, to illustrate the significance of including the albedo information when determining the composition of the objects. When the albedo contribution is removed from the data, the new taxonomy (now labelled classical) is in general agreement with the published ones, supporting the applicability of our approach. Making use of modeled reflectance spectra of a variety of plausible mixtures found on the surface of TNOs, we extract the average surface composition of each taxon, for both the classical and the albedo taxonomy, in a statistically consistent fashion.Differently from previous and classical, the albedo taxonomy establishes a direct link between the colors and albedos of the objects and their surface composition, allowing, for the first time, a quick assessment of the chemical history of TNOs. In fact, under closer examination the taxa show trends in composition that might be evolutionary in nature. If a simple ‘snow lines’ model is adopted, we can infer that albedo taxa relate the current objects’ locations to their original ones, prior to the migration of the outer planets. We regard the large population that characterizes the darkest classes spread at a variety of semi-major axis distances as one of the intriguing results of this work.     

Technical characteristics of a solar geoengineering deployment and implications for governance

ABSTRACT

Consideration of solar geoengineering as a potential response to climate change will demand complex decisions. These include not only the choice of whether to deploy solar engineering, but decisions regarding how to deploy, and ongoing decision-making throughout deployment. Research on the governance of solar geoengineering to date has primarily engaged only with the question of whether to deploy. We examine the science of solar geoengineering in order to clarify the technical dimensions of decisions about deployment – both strategic and operational – and how these might influence governance considerations, while consciously refraining from making specific recommendations. The focus here is on a hypothetical deployment rather than governance of the research itself. We first consider the complexity surrounding the design of a deployment scheme, in particular the complicated and difficult decision of what its objective(s) would be, given that different choices for how to deploy will lead to different climate outcomes. Next, we discuss the on-going decisions across multiple timescales, from the sub-annual to the multi-decadal. For example, feedback approaches might effectively manage some uncertainties, but would require frequent adjustments to the solar geoengineering deployment in response to observations. Other decisions would be tied to the inherently slow process of detection and attribution of climate effects in the presence of natural variability. Both of these present challenges to decision-making. These considerations point toward particular governance requirements, including an important role for technical experts – with all the challenges that entails.

Key policy insights

• Decisions about solar geoengineering deployment will be informed not only by political choices, but also by climate science and engineering.

• Design decisions will pertain to the spatial and temporal goals of a climate intervention and strategies for achieving those goals.

• Some uncertainty can be managed through feedback, but this would require frequent operational decisions.

• Some strategic decisions will depend on the detection and attribution of climatic effects from solar geoengineering, which may take decades.

• Governance for solar geoengineering deployment will likely need to incorporate technical expertise for making short-term adjustments to the deployment and conducting attribution analysis, while also slowing down decisions made in response to attribution analysis to avoid hasty choices.

     

Expansion of the northern hemisphere subtropical high pressure belt: trends and linkages to precipitation and drought

A critical issue in research concerning long-term climate change is the relationship between circulation features and global temperature variations. We establish that the annual areal size of the northern hemisphere subtropical high pressure belt (SHPB), as defined by seven 500-hPa height isohypses, shares over 70% of the variability with global annual near-surface air temperature since 1948. The area enclosed by the 5850-m isohypse of the 500-hPa surface in the northern hemisphere has more than doubled since the 1950s, with greatest increases over northern Africa, the Middle East and India. A long-term historical run of a coupled global climate model shows rapidly increasing SHPB annual sizes, since the mid-1970s. Since the SHPB’s descending air produces increased aridity, SHPB expansion may transition humid regions to more arid lands. To examine this aspect, first, variations in recorded precipitation using a gridded database for the region experiencing expansion of the SHPB show a decrease in precipitation (though significant only at the 88% confidence level) over the last 60?years. Second, variations in a 0.5° spatial resolution monthly drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, are highly correlated (+0.78) with annual variations in the area enclosed by the 500-hPa height isohypses. These results support those of previous investigations that suggest further northward expansion of the northern hemisphere subtropical dry zones with continued global climate change.     

Flood‐driven topographic changes in a gravel‐cobble river over segment,reach, and morphological unit scales

Regulated rivers generally incise below dams that cut off sediment supply, but how that happens and what the consequences are at different spatial scales is poorly understood. Modern topographic mapping at meter‐scale resolution now enables investigation of the details of spatial processes. In this study, spatial segregation was applied to a meter‐scale raster map of topographic change from 1999 to 2008 on the gravel‐cobble, regulated lower Yuba River in California to answer specific scientific questions about how a decadal hydrograph that included a flood peak of 22 times bankfull discharge affected the river at segment, reach, and morphological unit scales. The results show that the river preferentially eroded sediment from floodplains compared to the channel, and this not only promoted valley‐wide sediment evacuation, but also facilitated the renewal and differentiation of morphological units, especially in the channel. At the reach scale, area of fill and mean net rate of elevational change were directly correlated with better connectivity between the channel and floodplain, while the mean rate of scour in scour areas was influenced by the ratio of slope to bankfull Froude number, a ratio indicative of lateral migration versus vertical downcutting. Hierarchical segregation of topographic change rasters proved useful for understanding multi‐scalar geomorphic dynamics. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new approach for measuring surface hydrological connectivity

The development of surface hydrological connectivity is a key determinant of flood magnitude in drylands. Thresholds in runoff response may be reached when isolated runoff-generating areas connect with each other to form continuous links to river channels, enabling these areas to contribute to flood hydrographs. Such threshold behaviour explains observed nonlinearities and scale dependencies of dryland rainfall–runoff relationships and complicates attempts at flood prediction. However, field methods for measuring the propensity of a surface to transmit water downslope are lacking, and conventional techniques of infiltration measurement are often inappropriate for use on non-agricultural drylands. Here, we argue for a reconceptualization of the dryland surface runoff process, suggesting that the downslope transfer of water should be considered alongside surface infiltration; that is, there is a need for the “aggregated” measurement of infiltration and overland flow hydraulics. Surface application of a set volume of water at a standardized rate generates runoff that travels downslope; the distance it travels downslope is determined by infiltration along the flow, integration of flow paths, and flow resistance. We demonstrate the potential of such a combined measurement system coupled with structure-from-motion photogrammetry to identify surface controls on runoff generation and transfer on dryland hillslopes, with vegetation, slope, surface stone cover, and surface roughness all having a significant effect. The measurement system has been used on slopes up to 37° compared with the flat surface typically required for infiltration methods. On average, the field workflow takes ~10–15 min, considerably quicker than rainfall simulation. A wider variety of surfaces can be sampled with relative ease, as the method is not restricted to stone and vegetation-free land. We argue that this aggregated measurement represents surface connectivity and dryland runoff response better than standard hydrological approaches and can be applied on a much greater variety of dryland surfaces.     

Investigating the response of Cladocera to a major saltwater intrusion event in an Arctic lake from the outer Mackenzie Delta (NT, Canada)

An increase in the frequency and intensity of marine storm surges is a predicted consequence of climate warming, and therefore it is important to better understand the biological responses to such events in coastal regions. In late September 1999, a major storm surge resulted in a saltwater intrusion event over a large area of the Mackenzie Delta (NT, Canada) front, causing rapid salinization of lakes on the alluvial plain. Due to a lack of long-term ecological monitoring data in the region, the impacts that the saltwater intrusion event had on the biota of affected lakes were unknown. We used high-resolution paleolimnological approaches to reconstruct past assemblage changes in Cladocera from impacted Lake DZO-29 (unofficial name) in order to determine how different cladoceran species responded to a major increase in lake salinity following the 1999 storm surge. Camptocercus were extirpated from the lake following the saltwater intrusion and have not recovered. We also observed an initial decrease in Alona relative abundance following the marine flooding, likely reflecting a loss of A. quadrangularis, A. barbulata, and A. costata from the lake. A. circumfimbriata, Chydorus biovatus, C. brevilabris, and Bosmina spp. were abundant both before and after the saltwater intrusion, and Paralona pigra was present following the storm surge, but not prior to it. The most notable shift in Cladocera in the recent sedimentary record, however, occurred much earlier, with an increase in pelagic Bosmina taxa and a subsequent decrease in the benthic/littoral taxa Chydorus and Camptocercus, an assemblage shift that is consistent with a response to climate warming in this region, and strongly correlated to other changes in the lake inferred to be as a result of regional warming.     

From Vegetable Box to Seafood Cooler: Applying the Community-Supported Agriculture Model to Fisheries

Community-supported fisheries (CSF) projects show signs of rapid growth. Modeled on community-supported agriculture (CSA) projects, CSFs share objectives of reducing social and physical distance between consumers and producers and re-embedding food systems in social and environmental contexts. This article offers a comparison of CSF and CSA, situated in the differences between seafood and agricultural products, and fishing and farming. We draw on economic and resource theory, past research on CSA, and a member survey from a case study CSF. Survey results show CSF members are interested in accessing high-quality, fresh, local seafood, and in supporting fishing communities, and they believe that participating in a CSF achieves both. They are less certain that a CSF can address environmental concerns, and few identify environmental motives as their primary reason for participating. The latter contrasts with CSA research results, and we contextualize these findings in our broader comparison.