长江三角洲地区经济极化趋势、功能及扩展范围

In the era of economic globalization, the concept of Economic Polarized Area comes into being as an effective vehicle to agglomerate the economic elements and sustain the economic lifeline of the region. Based on the region’s specific development mode and construction form the concept is working in such a way that it will contribute to guide the economic development of the country and will play an important role in competing with other regions or countries in the world. Due to the high speed development of the last 30 years, the Yangtze Delta Region starts to show the features of Economic Polarized Area. But, compared with other world-class Economic Polarized Areas, the economic strength and the ability of the Yangtze Delta Region to drive the country’s economic development is still very low and the competitive power is still very limited. Expanding the boundaries of the Economic Polarized Area of the Yangtze Delta may extend the economic hinterland of the core area of the Yangtze Delta Region, will lighten the pressures from the limited resource and promote the rationalization of the industrial structure in the Yangtze Delta Region’s core area. With regard to the reasonable boundaries of the Yangtze Delta Region, there are different opinions and controversial arguments in political and academic circles. Starting from the idea of increasing the competitive power and improving the economic strength of the Yangtze Delta Region, the paper firstly is discussing the requirements to become a world-class Economic Polarized Area. In a second step an analysis of functional complementation and economic collaboration between the cities of an “extended” Yangtze Delta Region has been carried out by in particular considering the feasibility of integrating these “newly included” cities. The final result of the study is, that the Region should be expanded from the number of 16 cities to 37 cities, and the appended cities should be divided up into two categories: Wenzhou, Jinhua, Yancheng, Huaian, Maanshan, Wuhu, Tongling, Chaohu, Hefei, Chuzhou, Xuancheng should be taken as Preferred Extending Area, and Suqian, Xuzhou, Lianyungang, Lishui, Quzhou, Chizhou, Anqing, Bengbu, Huangshan, Suzhou (Anhui Province) should be taken as Retained Qualification Area.     

Combined solar and QBO effects on the modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere

We examine joint effects of the solar activity and phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on modes of low-frequency variability of tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. The winter months (December–March) are stratified by the solar activity into two (below/above median) classes, and each of these classes is subdivided by the QBO phase (west or east). The variability modes are determined by rotated principal component analysis of 500 hPa heights separately in each class of solar activity and QBO phase. Detected are all the modes known to exist in the Northern Hemisphere. The solar activity and QBO jointly affect the shapes, spatial extent, and intensity of the modes; the QBO effects are, however, generally weaker than those of solar activity. For both solar maxima and minima, there is a tendency to the east/west phase of QBO to be accompanied by a lower/higher activity of zonally oriented modes and increased meridionality/zonality of circulation. This means that typical characteristics of circulation under solar minima, including a more meridional appearance of the modes and less activity of zonal modes, are strengthened during QBO-E; on the other hand, circulation characteristics typical of solar maxima, such as enhanced zonality of the modes and more active zonal modes, are more pronounced during QBO-W. Furthermore, the zonal modes in the Euro-Atlantic and Asian sectors (North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic pattern, and North Asian pattern) shift southwards in QBO-E, the shift being stronger in solar maxima.     

The 2008 West Bohemia earthquake swarm in the light of the WEBNET network

A swarm of earthquakes of magnitudes up to M _L = 3.8 stroke the region of West Bohemia/Vogtland (border area between Czechia and Germany) in October 2008. It occurred in the Novy Kostel focal zone, where also all recent earthquake swarms (1985/1986, 1997, and 2000) took place, and was striking by a fast sequence of macroseismically observed earthquakes. We present the basic characteristics of this swarm based on the observations of a local network WEBNET (West Bohemia seismic network), which has been operated in the epicentral area, on the Czech territory. The swarm was recorded by 13 to 23 permanent and mobile WEBNET stations surrounding the swarm epicenters. In addition, a part of the swarm was also recorded by strong-motion accelerometers, which represent the first true accelerograms of the swarm earthquakes in the region. The peak ground acceleration reached 0.65 m/s². A comparison with previous earthquake swarms indicates that the total seismic moments released during the 1985/1986 and 2008 swarms are similar, of about 4E16 Nm, and that they represent the two largest swarms that occurred in the West Bohemia/ Vogtland region since the M _L = 5.0 swarm of 1908. Characteristic features of the 2008 swarm are its short duration (4 weeks) and rapidity and, consequently, the fastest seismic moment release compared to previous swarms. Up to 25,000 events in the magnitude range of 0.5 < M _L < 3.8 were detected using an automatic picker. A total of nine swarm phases can be distinguished in the swarm, five of them exceeding the magnitude level of 2.5. The magnitude–frequency distribution of the complete 2008 swarm activity shows a b value close to 1. The swarm hypocenters fall precisely on the same fault portion of the Novy Kostel focal zone that was activated by the 2000 swarm (M _L ≤ 3.2) in a depth interval from 6 to 11 km and also by the 1985/1986 swarm (M _L ≤ 4.6). The steeply dipping fault planes of the 2000 and 2008 swarms seem to be identical considering the location error of about 100 m. Furthermore, focal mechanisms of the 2008 swarm are identical with those of the 2000 swarm, both matching an average strike of 170° and dip of 80° of the activated fault segment. An overall upward migration of activity is observed with first events at the bottom and last events at the top of the of the activated fault patch. Similarities in the activated fault area and in the seismic moments released during the three largest recent swarms enable to estimate the seismic potential of the focal zone. If the whole segment of the fault plane was activated simultaneously, it would represent an earthquake of M _L ~5. This is in good agreement with the estimates of the maximum magnitudes of earthquakes that occurred in the West Bohemia/Vogtland region in the past.     

Geoelectrical and geological structure of the crust in Western Slovakia

Electrical resistivity of the Earth’s crust is sensitive to a wide range of petrological and physical parameters, and it particularly clearly indicates crustal zones that have been tectonically or thermodynamically disturbed. A complex geological structure of the Alpine nappe system, remnants of older Hercynian units and Neogene block tectonics in Western Slovakia has been a target of recent magnetotelluric investigations which made a new and more precise identification of the crustal structural elements of the Western Carpathians possible. A NW-SE magnetotelluric profile, 150 km long, with 30 broad-band and 3 long-period magnetotelluric sites, was deployed, crossing the major regional tectonic elements listed from the north: Brunia (as a part of the European platform), Outer Carpathian Flysch, Klippen Belt, blocks of Penninic or Oravicum crust, Tatricum and Veporicum. Magnetotelluric models were combined with previous seismic and gravimetric results and jointly interpreted in the final integrated geological model. The magnetotelluric models of geoelectrical structures exhibit strong correlation with the geological structures of the crust in this part of the Western Carpathians. The significant resemblance in geoelectrical and crustal geological structures are highlighted in shallow resistive structures of the covering formations represented by mainly Tertiary sediments and volcanics. Also in the deeper parts of the crust highly resistive and conductive structures are shown, which reflect the original building Hercynian crust, with superposition of granitoids or granitised complexes and lower metamorphosed complexes. Another important typical feature in the construction of the Western Carpathians is the existence of young Neogene steep fault zones exhibited by conductive zones within the whole crust. The most significant fault zones separate individual blocks of the Western Carpathians and the Western Carpathians itself from the European Platform.     

Seismic activity and deep conductivity structure of the Eastern Carpathians

We present results of a study of the seismicity and the geoelectric structure of the Eastern Carpathians. After the evaluation of the seismicity, new methods of processing and analyzing seismic data are developed, which allow constructing an averaged horizontal-layered velocity model of the crust in the Carpathian region of Ukraine, tracing the seismic active faults and localizing the seismic events both in horizontal and in vertical direction with a better precision. For the study of the conductivity structure beneath the Eastern Carpathians, the collected magnetovariation and magnetotelluric data are used. The depth of electrical conductivity anomalies are estimated and the resulting quasi-3D model of the conductivity structure beneath the Carpathians is compared with the seismicity in the depth range of 10 ± 2.5 km. The comparison suggests possible geological mechanisms: the seismic events occur mainly in resistive solid rock domains which surround aseismic high-conductivity zones, consisting of at least partially melted material. Aqueous fluids, or a joint effect of several mechanisms, may also play an active role in this distribution.     

The role of substrate characteristics in producing anomalously young crater retention ages in volcanic deposits on the Moon: Morphology,topography, subresolution roughness,and mode of emplacement of the Sosigenes lunar irregular mare patch

Lunar irregular mare patches (IMPs) comprise dozens of small, distinctive, and enigmatic lunar mare features. Characterized by their irregular shapes, well-preserved state of relief, apparent optical immaturity, and few superposed impact craters, IMPs are interpreted to have been formed or modified geologically very recently (<~100 Ma; Braden et al. 2014 ). However, their apparent relatively recent formation/modification dates and emplacement mechanisms are debated. We focus in detail on one of the major IMPs, Sosigenes, located in western Mare Tranquillitatis, and dated by Braden et al. ( 2014 ) at ~18 Ma. The Sosigenes IMP occurs on the floor of an elongate pit crater interpreted to represent the surface manifestation of magmatic dike propagation from the lunar mantle during the mare basalt emplacement era billions of years ago. The floor of the pit crater is characterized by three morphologic units typical of several other IMPs, i.e., (1) bulbous mounds 5–10 m higher than the adjacent floor units, with unusually young crater retention ages, meters thick regolith, and slightly smaller subresolution roughness than typical mature lunar regolith; (2) a lower hummocky unit mantled by a very thin regolith and significantly smaller subresolution roughness; and (3) a lower blocky unit composed of fresh boulder fields with individual meter-scale boulders and rough subresolution surface texture. Using new volcanological interpretations for the ascent and eruption of magma in dikes, and dike degassing and extrusion behavior in the final stages of dike closure, we interpret the three units to be related to the late-stage behavior of an ancient dike emplacement event. Following the initial dike emplacement and collapse of the pit crater, the floor of the pit crater was flooded by the latest-stage magma. The low rise rate of the magma in the terminal stages of the dike emplacement event favored flooding of the pit crater floor to form a lava lake, and CO gas bubble coalescence initiated a strombolian phase disrupting the cooling lava lake surface. This phase produced a very rough and highly porous (with both vesicularity and macroporosity) lava lake surface as the lake surface cooled. In the terminal stage of the eruption, dike closure with no addition of magma from depth caused the last magma reaching shallow levels to produce viscous magmatic foam due to H₂O gas exsolution. This magmatic foam was extruded through cracks in the lava lake crust to produce the bulbous mounds. We interpret all of these activities to have taken place in the terminal stages of the dike emplacement event billions of years ago. We attribute the unusual physical properties of the mounds and floor units (anomalously young ages, unusual morphology, relative immaturity, and blockiness) to be due to the unusual physical properties of the substrate produced during the waning stages of a dike emplacement event in a pit crater. The unique physical properties of the mounds (magmatic foams) and hummocky units (small vesicles and large void space) altered the nature of subsequent impact cratering, regolith development, and landscape evolution, inhibiting the typical formation and evolution of superposed impact craters, and maintaining the morphologic crispness and optical immaturity. Accounting for the effects of the reduced diameter of craters formed in magmatic foams results in a shift of the crater size–frequency distribution age from <100 Myr to billions of years, contemporaneous with the surrounding ancient mare basalts. We conclude that extremely young mare basalt eruptions, and resulting modification of lunar thermal evolution models to account for the apparent young ages of the IMPs, are not required. We suggest that other IMP occurrences, both those associated with pit craters atop dikes and those linked to fissure eruptions in the lunar maria, may have had similar ancient origins.     

Interdecadal variability of the Pacific Ocean: model response to observed heat flux and wind stress anomalies

Variability of the Pacific Ocean is examined in numerical simulations with an ocean general circulation model forced by observed anomalies of surface heat flux, wind stress and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) over the period 1970-88. The model captures the 1976-77 winter time climate shift in sea surface temperature, as well as its monthly, seasonal and longer term variability as evidenced in regional time series and empirical orthogonal function analyses. Examination of the surface mixed-layer heat budget reveals that the 1976-77 shift was caused by a unique concurrance of sustained heat flux input anomalies and very strong horizontal advection anomalies during a multi-month period preceding the shift in both the central Pacific region (where cooling occurred) and the California coastal region (where warming occurred). In the central Pacific, the warm conditions preceding and the cold conditions following the shift tend to be maintained by anomalous vertical mixing due to increases in the atmospheric momentum flux (TKE input) into the mixed layer (which deepens in the model after the shift) from the early 1970s to the late 1970s and 1980s. Since the ocean model does not contain feedback to the atmosphere and it succeeds in capturing the major features of the 1976-77 shift, it appears that the midlatitude part of the shift was driven by the atmosphere, although effects of midlatitude ocean-atmosphere feedback are still possible. The surface mixed-layer heat budget also reveals that, in the central Pacific, the effects of heat flux input and vertical mixing anomalies are comparable in amplitude while horizontal advection anomalies are roughly half that size. In the California coastal region, in contrast, where wind variability is much weaker than in the central Pacific, horizontal advection and vertical mixing effects on the mixed layer heat budget are only one-quarter the size of typical heat flux input anomalies.This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Variability, held in Hamburg 7–11 September 1992 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil     

High-Frequency and Low-Frequency Variability in Stochastic Daily Weather Generator and Its Effect on Agricultural and Hydrologic Modelling

The high-frequency and low-frequency variabilities, which are often misreproduced by the daily weather generators, have a significant effect on modelling weather-dependent processes. Three modifications are suggested to improve the reproduction of the both variabilities in a four-variate daily weather generator Met&Roll: (i) inclusion of the annual cycle of lag-0 and lag-1 correlations among solar radiation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, (ii) use of the 3rd order Markov chain to model precipitation occurrence, (iii) applying the monthly generator (based on a first-order autoregressive model) to fit the low-frequency variability. The tests are made to examine the effects of the three new features on (i) a stochastic structure of the synthetic series, and on (ii) outputs from CERES-Wheat crop model (crop yields) and SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model (monthly streamflow characteristics, distribution of 5-day streamflow) fed by the synthetic weather series. The results are compared with those obtained with the observed weather series.Results: (i) The inclusion of the annual cycle of the correlations has rather ambiguous effect on the temporal structure of the weather characteristics simulated by the generator and only insignificant effect on the output from either simulation model. (ii) Increased order of the Markov chain improves modelling of precipitation occurrence series (especially long dry spells), and correspondingly improves reliability of the output from either simulation model. (iii) Conditioning the daily generator on monthly generator has the most positive effect, especially on the output from the hydrological model: Variability of the monthly streamflow characteristics and the frequency of extreme streamflows are better simulated. (iv) Of the two simulation models, the improvements related to the three modifications are more pronounced in the hydrological simulations. This may be also due to the fact that the crop growth simulations were less affected by the imperfections of the unmodified version of Met&Roll.