Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.     

The impact of hydrological changes on travertine deposits related to thermal springs in the Pamukkale area (SW Turkey)

Pamukkale thermal waters (35 °C), exhibiting calcium-bicarbonate-sulfate composition and high carbon dioxide concentration, are of a predominantly meteoric origin. The meteoric fluid, circulating through faults and fractures, is heated by magmatic intrusions at great depth, and ascends from deep reservoirs to the surface. Mixing with relatively cold groundwater in the near surface zone promotes different saturation conditions with respect to calcium carbonate that later precipitates at depth and/or the surface. Dissolution-deposition processes of calcium carbonate both at surface and depth environments may help to reconstruct past climate direction in the field. During wet climate conditions a high-rate of calcium carbonate accumulation would be expected to occur at the surface because thermal fluid would be under-saturated with respect to calcium carbonate at depth because of a relatively higher mixing ratio with cold groundwater. During dry climate conditions the thermal fluid would be super-saturated at depth because of the highly acidic environment. Hydrometeorological studies reveal that the annual precipitation at the Pamukkale hydrothermal field tends to decrease with time. This climatic change in the area was also detected from geological records. While humid climate conditions prevailed during the late Quaternary, the area has recently been affected by arid/semi-arid climate conditions, followed by some episodic transitions. This study has shown how the system has possibly reacted to different climate conditions since antiquity.     

Prediction of ground displacements and velocities from groundwater level changes at the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain)

In active landslides, the prediction of acceleration of movement is a crucial issue for the design and performance of warning systems. The landslide of Vallcebre in the Eastern Pyreenes, Spain, has been monitored since 1996 and data on rainfall, groundwater levels and ground displacements are measured on a regular basis. Displacements observed in borehole wire extensometers have shown an immediate response of the landslide to rainfall episodes. This rapid response is likely due to the presence of preferential drainage ways. The occurrence of nearly constant rates of displacement in coincidence with steady groundwater levels suggests the presence of viscous forces developed during the movement. An attempt to predict both landslide displacements and velocities was performed at Vallcebre by solving the momentum equation in which a viscous term (Bingham and power law) was added. Results show that, using similar rheological parameters for the entire landslide, computed displacements reproduce quite accurately the displacements observed at three selected wire extensometers. These results indicate that prediction of displacements from groundwater level changes is feasible.     

Diagenetic paths in the margin of a Triassic Basin: NW zone of the Iberian Chain, Spain

Buntsandstein deposits generated in a slowly subsiding basin on the western margin of the Iberian Chain are represented by a stratigraphic succession of fluvial deposits less than 100 m thick (conglomerates, sandstones, and shales). Diagenetic processes in sandstones can be grouped as eodiagenetic, mesodiagenetic, and telodiagenetic. Eodiagenesis can be associated with Muschelkalk, Keuper, and probably early Jurassic times. Mesodiagenesis is probably related to Jurassic times. Diagenetic chemical reactions suggest a maximum burial less than 1.5 km and low temperatures (<120°C). Patterns of porosity reduction by compaction and cementation suggest four diagenetic stages: (1) Loss of primary porosity by early mechanical compaction; (2) early cementation (K-feldspar and dolomite); (3) dissolution of cements; and (4) framework collapse by re-compaction. These stages are manifested by the presence of two types of sandstone. Type I sandstones present high intergranular volume (mean, 30%). Type II sandstones are characterized by high compactional porosity loss and exhibit low values of intergranular volume (mean, 16.9%). Type II sandstones are associated with the dissolution of cement and later re-compaction of type I sandstones. An intermediate telodiagenetic phase is deduced and related to the sharp unconformity between Lower Cretaceous sediments and the underlying sediments. This suggests that a mechanically unstable framework collapsed during the Cretaceous, generating type II sandstones. The analyzed diagenetic paths have a wide applicability on similar marginal areas of rift basins.     

Hydrogeology and sustainable future groundwater abstraction from the Agua Verde aquifer in the Atacama Desert,northern Chile

The hyper-arid conditions prevailing in Agua Verde aquifer in northern Chile make this system the most important water source for nearby towns and mining industries. Due to the growing demand for water in this region, recharge is investigated along with the impact of intense pumping activity in this aquifer. A conceptual model of the hydrogeological system is developed and implemented into a two-dimensional groundwater-flow numerical model. To assess the impact of climate change and groundwater extraction, several scenarios are simulated considering variations in both aquifer recharge and withdrawals. The estimated average groundwater lateral recharge from Precordillera (pre-mountain range) is about 4,482 m³/day. The scenarios that consider an increase of water withdrawal show a non-sustainable groundwater consumption leading to an over-exploitation of the resource, because the outflows surpasses inflows, causing storage depletion. The greater the depletion, the larger the impact of recharge reduction caused by the considered future climate change. This result indicates that the combined effects of such factors may have a severe impact on groundwater availability as found in other groundwater-dependent regions located in arid environments. Furthermore, the scenarios that consider a reduction of the extraction flow rate show that it may be possible to partially alleviate the damage already caused to the aquifer by the continuous extractions since 1974, and it can partially counteract climate change impacts on future groundwater availability caused by a decrease in precipitation (and so in recharge), if the desalination plant in Taltal increases its capacity.     

U–Pb evidence for a polyorogenic evolution of the HP–HT units of the NW Iberian Massif

. A isotope dilution thermal ionisation mass spectrometry U-Pb geochronological study was carried out on the high-pressure and high-temperature units (HP-HT units) overlying the oceanic suture in the Allochthonous Complexes of the NW Iberian Variscan Belt. The rocks investigated are seven granulite- to eclogite-facies paragneisses and one leucosome within mafic high-pressure granulites in the Ordenes and Cabo Ortegal Complexes of NW Spain. U-Pb dating of zircon, monazite, titanite and rutile reveal the presence of a pervasive Early Ordovician metamorphic event at ca. 500-480 Ma and a later Early Devonian event at ca. 400-380 Ma. The U-Pb ages, in conjunction with petrological and structural data, indicate that the high-pressure event recorded by these rocks is Early Ordovician in age. Monazite ages in the paragneisses suggest that peak metamorphic conditions were reached at ca. 500-485 Ma. Subsequently, the rock ensemble underwent exhumation accompanied by partial melting and zircon growth at ca. 485-470 Ma. Melting of mafic granulites was coeval with this latter episode as indicated by zircon crystallisation age in the leucosomes dated at ca. 486 Ma. Based on these data and on the general features of magmatism and metamorphic evolution, it is proposed that this process took place at a convergent plate boundary within a peri-Gondwanan oceanic domain. Monazite, titanite and rutile data in some of the samples studied show evidence of a second metamorphic episode that took place between ca. 400 and 380 Ma (with a peak at ca. 390-385 Ma). This Early Devonian event, at variance with the previous one, was not pervasive, but, rather, was localised in areas of intense Variscan tectonothermal reworking. It is claimed that this later metamorphic event was recorded by the U-Pb system in areas where monazite and titanite growth was enhanced by fluid circulation in highly strained rocks (Variscan shear zones). According to previous structural studies and Ar-Ar dating of fabrics, this Early Devonian episode took place as the HP-HT units were deformed and thrusted upon the ophiolitic units in the early stages of the Variscan collision.     

Climatology of extratropical cyclones over the South American–southern oceans sector

A climatology of extratropical cyclones is presented. Extratropical cyclones, their main characteristics and their predominant tracks, as well as their interannual variability, affect weather in South America. For that purpose, a storm track database has been compiled by applying a cyclone tracking scheme to six-hourly sea level pressure fields, available from the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalyses II for the 1979–2003 period. The spatial distribution of the cyclogenesis frequency shows two main centers: one around Northern Argentina, Uruguay, and Southern Brazil in all seasons and the other near to the North Antarctic Peninsula. The lifetime of extratropical cyclones in the South American sector exhibits small seasonality, being typically of the order of 3.0 days during most of the year and slightly higher (3.5 days) in austral summer. The distance travelled by the cyclones formed in the South American sector tends to be smaller than the total paths found in other areas of the Southern Hemisphere. A k-mean clustering technique is used to summarize the analysis of the 25-year climatology of cyclone tracks. Three clusters were found: one storm-track cluster in Northeast Argentina; a second one west of the Andes Cordillera; and a third cluster located to the north of the Antarctic Peninsula (around the Weddell Sea). The influence of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in the variability of extratropical cyclones is explored, and some signals of the impacts of the variability of the AAO can be observed in the position of the extratropical cyclones around 40°S, while the impacts on the intensity is detected around 55°S.     

Runoff and sediment yield from land under various uses in a Mediterranean mountain area: long‐term results from an experimental station

In this study we analyzed runoff and sediment yield from land under various traditional and current land uses in Mediterranean mountain areas, using long‐term data from an experimental station in the Aísa Valley, Central Spanish Pyrenees. Monitoring at this station has provided 20 years of data that can help explain the hydrological and geomorphological changes that have been observed at larger spatial scales, and also the changes that have occurred to some of the most characteristic landscapes of the Mediterranean middle mountains. In spite of the problems associated with the use of small experimental plots, the results obtained are consistent with other studies in the Mediterranean region, and confirm the strong influence of land use changes on runoff generation and sediment yield. The results indicate that: (i) cereal cultivation on steep slopes (both alternating cereal cultivation and fallow on sloping fields and shifting agriculture on the steepest slopes) represents a major problem for soil conservation. This explains the occurrence throughout the Mediterranean mountains of many degraded hillslopes, which show evidence of sheet wash erosion, rilling, gullying and shallow landsliding; (ii) farmland abandonment has led to a marked reduction in runoff and sediment yield as a consequence of rapid plant recolonization, particularly by dense shrubs; (iii) the natural transformation of abandoned fields into grazing meadows has reduced runoff and sediment yield. Land use trends in the Mediterranean mountains are mainly characterized by generalized farmland abandonment and a decrease in livestock pressure. From a hydrological and geomorphological point of view the main consequences have been a reduction in overland flow from the hillslopes, and a reduction in sediment sources, with differences up to one order of magnitude in sediment yield from dense shrub cover and grazing meadow areas compared with areas under shifting agriculture. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Some Insights into Topographic,Elastic and Self-gravitation Interaction in Modelling Ground Deformation and Gravity Changes in Active Volcanic Areas

Surface displacements and gravity changes due to volcanic sources are influenced by medium properties. We investigate topographic, elastic and self-gravitation interaction in order to outline the major factors that are significant in data modelling. While elastic-gravitational models can provide a suitable approximation to problems of volcanic loading in areas where topographic relief is negligible, for prominent volcanoes the rough topography could affect deformation and gravity changes to a greater extent than self-gravitation. This fact requires the selection, depending on local relief, of a suitable model for use in the interpretation of surface precursors of volcanic activity. We use the three-dimensional Indirect Boundary Element Method to examine the effects of topography on deformation and gravity changes in models of magma chamber inflation/deflation. Topography has a significant effect on predicted surface deformation and gravity changes. Both the magnitude and pattern of the geodetic signals are significantly different compared to half-space solutions. Thus, failure to account for topographic effects in areas of prominent relief can bias the estimate of volcanic source parameters, since the magnitude and pattern of deformation and gravity changes depend on such effects.