Volcanic hazards zonation of the Nevado de Toluca Volcano,Central Mexico

Nevado de Toluca Volcano (NTV), located in central Mexico, is a large stratovolcano, with an explosive history. The area is one of the most important developing centers (>2 millions) in Mexico and in the last 30 yrs large population growth and expansion have increased the potential risk in case of a reactivation of the volcano. As part of a study to assess volcanic risk, this paper presents the results of the volcanic hazard analysis for the NTV. A total of 150 stratigraphic sections were made in the field and three new ages were obtained. Eruptions from NTV produced a complex sequence of pyroclastic deposits that have affected the area at least 18 times during the last 100,000 yrs. Eight vulcanian, four plinian and one-ultraplinian eruptions as well as the destruction of at least three domes occurred in the last 42,000 yr BP as well as two sector collapses in the last 100,000 yrs. Isopach and isopleth maps for the main ulraplinian eruption were also made. The original cone height (5,080 m.a.s.l) was reconstructed through geomorphologic methods. The maximum distance calculated with the energy line for the block and ash flows was 41 km, 35 km for pumice flows and 45 km for debris avalanches. The dominant wind direction at altitudes of 20–30 km is to the east-northeast from November to March, west-northwest in April and west from May to October. Five hazards maps (block and ash flows, pumice flows, ash fall, debris avalanches, and lahars) were made for the NTV. The pyroclastic flows and lahars represent very high to medium hazard for Toluca, Villa Guerrero, Coatepec, Tianguistengo, Metepec, Tenango, Lerma and Zinacantepec. A new debris avalanche would probably affect the south and northeast because of active faulting (E–W and NW–SE) and existing topographic differences in height.     

Climate projections over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)

Following the CORDEX experimental protocol, climate simulations and climate-change projections for Africa were made with the new fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). The model was driven by two Global Climate Models (GCMs), one developed by the Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie and the other by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, for the period 1950–2100 under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. The performance of the CRCM5 simulations for current climate is discussed first and compared also with a reanalysis-driven CRCM5 simulation. It is shown that errors in lateral boundary conditions and sea-surface temperature from the GCMs have deleterious consequences on the skill of the CRCM5 at reproducing specific regional climate features such as the West African Monsoon and the annual cycle of precipitation. For other aspects of the African climate however the regional model is able to add value compared to the simulations of the driving GCMs. Climate-change projections for periods until the end of this century are also analysed. All models project a warming throughout the twenty-first century, although the details of the climate changes differ notably between model projections, especially for precipitation changes. It is shown that the climate changes projected by CRCM5 often differ noticeably from those of the driving GCMs.     

The role of an extreme flood disturbance on macrophyte assemblages in a Neotropical floodplain

Aquatic macrophytes produce large amounts of organic matter and have an essential structuring role in floodplains. This process highlights the importance of this community to aquatic biodiversity maintenance. We investigated the role of a flood disturbance on the response of macrophyte assemblages in regional and local structuring in the Upper Paraná River floodplain. Plant species were recorded before (November 2006) and after (March 2007) an uncommon increase in water level caused by the El Niño South Oscillation, which is considered a disturbance. Samples were taken in lakes and backwaters located in the floodplain and connected to three distinct rivers (that differentiate three sub-systems). Species richness and the assemblage structure of macrophyte patches underwent significant changes after the flood disturbance, depending on the specific sub-system (rivers) to which the lakes were connected. In addition, flood disturbance had a strong impact on community organization at the local scale. However, regionalization with respect to sub-systems remained significant after the flood disturbance. Our results emphasize the importance of connection to the river on macrophyte community composition and richness, and suggest that flood events in the Upper Paraná River floodplain disrupt community organization only at fine (local) scales.     

Comparison of Recharge Estimation Methods During a Wet Period in a Karst Aquifer

Management of water resources, implying their appropriate protection, calls for a sound evaluation of recharge. Such assessment is very complex in karst aquifers. Most methods are developed for application to detrital aquifers, without taking into account the extraordinary heterogeneity of porosity and permeability of karst systems. It is commonly recommended to estimate recharge using multiple methods; however, differences inherent to the diverse methods make it difficult to clarify the accuracy of each result. In this study, recharge was estimated in a karst aquifer working in a natural regime, in a Mediterranean‐type climate, in the western part of the Sierra de las Nieves (southern Spain). Mediterranean climate regions are characterized by high inter‐annual rainfall variability featuring long dry periods and short intense wet periods, the latter constituting the most important contribution to aquifer water input. This paper aims to identify the methods that provide the most plausible range of recharge rate during wet periods. Six methods were tested: the classical method of Thornthwaite‐Mather, the Visual Balan code, the chloride balance method, and spatially distributed methods such as APLIS, a novel spatiotemporal estimation of recharge, and ZOODRM. The results help determine valid methods for application in the rest of the unit of study and in similar karst aquifers.     

Strutted Excavation in Soft Soil Incorporating a Jet-Grout Base Slab: Analysis Considering the Consolidation Effect

The influence of the consolidation on a strutted excavation in soft soil is analysed using a computer code based on the finite element method. A base jet-grout slab is considered in order to improve stability against bottom heave failure and minimize wall displacements. The numerical model incorporates the Biot consolidation theory (coupled formulation of the flow and equilibrium equations) with soil constitutive relations simulated by the p–q–θ critical state model. Special emphasis is given to the analysis, during and after the construction period, of the pore pressures, shear stresses, stress levels and displacements in the ground, as well as strut compression loads, wall displacements and bending moments, earth pressures on the wall faces and compression loads and bending moments on the jet-grout slab. The safety factor against bottom heave is also evaluated from the finite element analysis considering formulations of the critical state soil mechanics, and also compared to values obtained with traditional methods that use limit equilibrium approach and bearing capacity fundamentals.     

Structural pattern of the western Las Cañadas caldera (Tenerife, Canary Islands) revealed by audiomagnetotellurics

The local and regional structural pattern of volcanic edifices strongly controls the space distribution of electrical resistivity. Here we report on the structural context of the western part of the Las Cañadas caldera of Tenerife (LCC) thought to have initiated the formation of the caldera. Using a new dataset of 11 audiomagnetotelluric tensors we emphasize the resistivity distribution of Ucanca caldera and propose a major revision of its extension. We find that Ucanca caldera has a limited westwards extent and that El Cedro sector is a depression margin of the caldera. According to the extent of hydrothermalized rocks at the base of the LCC wall and the distribution of Pico Teide – Pico Viejo vents, we constrain the location and size of Ucanca caldera. The interpretation of these results also constrains the extension of the Icod Valley and proposes a headwall located below the Pico Teide – Pico Viejo Complex.     

Precursory Subsurface 222Rn and 220Rn Degassing Signatures of the 2004 Seismic Crisis at Tenerife, Canary Islands

Precursory geochemical signatures of radon degassing in the subsurface of the Tenerife Island were observed several months prior to the recent 2004 seismic-volcanic crisis. These premonitory signatures were detected by means of a continuous monitoring of ²²²Rn and ²²⁰Rn activity from a bubbling CO₂-rich gas spot located at 2.850 m depth inside a horizontal gallery for groundwater exploitation at Tenerife. Multivariate Regression Analysis (MRA) on time series of the radon activity was applied to eliminate the radon activity fluctuation due to external variables such as barometric pressure, temperature and relative humidity as well as power supply. Material Failure Forecast Method (FFM) was successfully applied to forecast the anomalous seismicity registered in Tenerife Island in 2004. The changes in the ²²²Rn/²²⁰Rn ratio observed after the period of anomalous seismicity might suggest a higher gas flow rate and/or changes in the vertical permeability induced by seismic activity.     

The first meteorological observations at a tropical high elevation site: Antisana, 1846

Antisana is a stratovolcano with an associated glacier located in the Ecuadorian Andes. Dr Aguirre made meteorological readings every day, at every hour from sunrise to sunset, from December 1845 to December 1846, at Antisana using a meteorological station at 4060 mamsl (meters above mean sea level). Unfortunately, only the monthly average data have been preserved. These meteorological data are here studied and compared with the closest modern stations for monthly values of temperature, rainfall, and pressure. According to these comparisons, the year 1846 was rainy and cold in comparison with the current climate. Moreover, these observations have been useful to help resolve a debate about a possible El Niño event in 1846 with the high precipitation in Antisana and Quito in 1846 discarding the occurrence of an El Niño event. The probable occurrence of a La Niña event is discussed. These data are the earliest known systematic instrumental meteorological observations taken at above 4000 mamsl.     

Anomalous Diffuse CO2 Emissions at the Masaya Volcano (Nicaragua) Related to Seismic-Volcanic Unrest

Anomalous changes in the diffuse emission of carbon dioxide within the Masaya caldera have been observed before two seismic events that occurred at 10 and 30 km from the observation site. Their epicenters are located, respectively, south of Managua in Las Colinas (4.3 magnitude) and the Xiloa caldera (3.6 magnitude), in 2002 and 2003, recorded by the geochemical station located at El Comalito, Masaya volcano (Nicaragua). Anomalous increases were observed, which occurred around 50 and 8 days before the main seismic event that took place in Las Colinas, and 4 days before the seismic swarm at the Xiloa caldera, with a maximum CO₂ efflux of 9.3 and 10.7 kg m^?2 day^?1, respectively. The anomalous CO₂ efflux increases remained after filtering with multiple regression analysis was applied to the CO₂ efflux time series, which indicated that atmospheric variables, during the first 4 months, explained 23 % CO₂ variability, whereas, during the rest of the time series, CO₂ efflux values are poorly controlled with only 6 %. The observed anomalies of the diffuse CO₂ emission rate might be related to pressure changes within the volcanic–hydrothermal system and/or to geostructural changes in the crust due to stress/strain changes caused before and during the earthquakes’ formation, and seem not to be related to the activity of the main crater of Masaya volcano.