Spatiotemporal patterns of burned areas,fire drivers,and fire probability across the equatorial Andes

Field-based fire studies in the equatorial Andes indicate that fires are strongly associated with biophysical and anthropogenic variables. However, fire controls and fire regimes at the regional scale remain undocumented. Therefore, this paper describes spatial and temporal burned-area patterns, identifies biophysical and anthropogenic fire drivers, and quantifies fire probability across 6° of latitude and 3° of longitude in the equatorial Andes. The spatial and temporal burned-area analysis was carried out based on 18 years(2001-2018) of the MCD64 A1 MODIS burned-area product. Climate, topography, vegetation, and anthropogenic variables were integrated in a logistic regression model to identify the significance of explanatory variables and determine fire occurrence probability. A total of 5779 fire events were registered during the 18 years of this study, located primarily along the western cordillera of the Andes and spreading from North to South. Eighty-eight percent of these fires took place within two fire hotspots located in the northwestern and southwestern corners of the study area. Ninety-nine percent occurred during the second part of the year, between June and December. The largest density of fires was primarily located on herbaceous vegetation and shrublands. Results show that mean monthly temperature, precipitation and NDVI during the prefire season, the location of land cover classes such as forest and agriculture, distance to roads and urban areas, slope, and aspect were the most important determinants of spatial and temporal fire distribution. The logistic regression model achieved a good accuracy in predicting fire probability(80%). Probability was higher in the southwestern and northern corners of the study area, and lower towards the north in the western and eastern piedmonts of the Andes. This analysis contributes to the understanding of fires in mountains within the tropics. The results here presented have the potential to contribute to fire management and control in the region.     

GPS for real-time earthquake source determination and tsunami warning systems

We identify the key design aspects of a GPS-based system (and in the future, GNSS-based systems) that could contribute to real-time earthquake source determination and tsunami warning systems. Our approach is based on models of both transient and permanent displacement of GPS stations caused by large earthquakes, while considering the effect of GPS errors on inverted earthquake source parameters. Our main conclusions are that (1) the spatial pattern, magnitude, and timing of permanent displacement of GPS stations can be inverted for the earthquake source and so predict the 3D displacement field of the ocean bottom, thus providing the initial conditions for tsunami models, and (2) there are no inherently limiting factors arising from real-time orbit and positioning errors, provided sufficient near-field GPS stations are deployed. This signal could be readily exploited by GPS networks currently in place, and will be facilitated by the IGS Real-Time Project as it comes to fruition.     

Identification of Possible Intense Historical Solar Storms During the Years 1781–1788 Inferred from Aurorae and Geomagnetic Observations in Rio De Janeiro

The reconstruction of solar activity during the late 18th century is a puzzle for researchers due to the scarcity of sunspot observations in that epoch. In this work, we analyse some details of the solar activity during the years 1781–1788, inferred from geomagnetic measurements and visual observations of aurorae performed by the Portuguese scientist Bento Sanches Dorta from Rio de Janeiro. We describe in greater detail four large solar storms that induced large changes in daily values of geomagnetic declination and, simultaneously, correspond to visual observations of aurorae described by Sanches Dorta.     

Approximating constant‐Q seismic propagation in the time domain

In this study, we investigate the accuracy of approximating constant‐Q wave propagation by series of Zener or standard linear solid (SLS) mechanisms. Modelling in viscoacoustic and viscoelastic media is implemented in the time domain using the finite‐difference (FD) method. The accuracy of numerical solutions is evaluated by comparison with the analytical solution in homogeneous media. We found that the FD solutions using three SLS relaxation mechanisms as well as a single SLS mechanism, with properly chosen relaxation times, are quite accurate for both weak and strong attenuation. Although the RMS errors of FD simulations using a single relaxation mechanism increase with increasing offset, especially for strong attenuation (Q = 20), the results are still acceptable for practical applications. The synthetic data of the Marmousi‐II model further illustrate that the single SLS mechanism, to model constant Q, is efficient and sufficiently accurate. Moreover, it benefits from less computational costs in computer time and memory.     

Modeling spatial landslide susceptibility in volcanic terrains through continuous neighborhood spatial analysis and multiple logistic regression in La Ciénega watershed,Nevado de Toluca,Mexico

Natural Hazards - Little study has been done on the effect of the pixel neighborhood information when modeling landslide susceptibility using multiple logistic regression (MLR). The present...     

Assessment of global warming on the island of Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain). Trends in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures since 1944

Temperature variation is studied at different altitudes and orientation on the island of Tenerife, according to the trends in the mean, maximum and minimum at 21 meteorological stations. Reference series are obtained by sectors, along with a representative overall series for Tenerife, in which temperature shows a statistically significant growth trend of 0.09?±?0.04°C/decade since 1944. Night-time temperatures have risen most (0.17°C?±?0.04°C/decade), while by day they have been more stable. Consequently, the diurnal temperature range between day and night has narrowed. By regions, warming has been much more intense in the high mountains than the other sectors below the inversion layer between 600 and 1,400?m altitude, and progressively milder towards the coast. The temperature rise on the windward (north-northeast) slopes is greater than on the leeward side and could be related to the increase in cloudiness on the northern side. The general warming of the island is less than in continental areas at between 24 and 44oN, being closer to the sea surface temperature in the same area. This is probably explained largely by the insular conditions. In fact warming is more evident in the high mountains (0.14?±?0.07°C/decade), where the tempering effect of the ocean and the impact of changes in the stratocumulus is weaker, being similar to the mean continental values in the northern hemisphere.     

The influence of island generated eddies on the carbon dioxide system, south of the Canary Islands

Measurements of surface partial pressure of CO₂ and water column alkalinity, pH_T, nutrients, oxygen, fluorescence and hydrography were carried out, south of the Canary Islands during September 1998. Cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies were alternatively observed from the northwestern area to the central area of the Canary Islands. Nutrient pumping and vertical uplifting of the deep chlorophyll maximum by cyclonic eddies were also ascertained by upward displacement of dissolved inorganic carbon. A model was applied to determine the net inorganic carbon balance in the cyclonic eddy. The fluxes were determined considering both the diffusive and convective contributions from the upward pumping and the corresponding horizontal transport of water outside the area. An increase in the total inorganic carbon concentration in the upper layers inside the eddy field of 133 mmol C m^− 2 d^− 1 was determined. The upward flux of inorganic carbon decreased the effect of the increased primary production on the carbon dioxide chemistry. The reduced fCO₂ inside the cyclonic eddy, 15 μatm lower than that observed in non-affected surface water, was explained by thermodynamic aspects, biological activity, eddy upward pumping and diffusion and air–sea water exchange effects.     

A mass mortality of subtropical intertidal populations of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus: analysis of potential links with environmental conditions

An outbreak of bald sea urchin disease was detected affecting intertidal populations of the edible temperate species Paracentrotus lividus at its southernmost geographical limit. The mortality event was detected in three sites (Güímar, Palmar and Alcalá) off Tenerife, Canary Islands (Northeastern Atlantic), in October 2003, coinciding with the highest sea surface temperatures (SST) and the lowest wave heights of the year. The prevalence of infection reached 100% but did not affect equally all studied sites or the different size classes. The disease was more prevalent in large sea urchins (>40 mm). The prevalence appeared to be positively correlated with the environmental variable SST and negatively correlated with wave height. In October 2004, only two infected urchins were found (prevalence 1%) at one of the studied sites. However, during 2004 no such extreme values of temperature and wave height were observed. We conclude that high SSTs and low wave heights such as those observed during 2003 are conditions that may trigger outbreaks of urchin disease.     

Tectonics of an extinct ridge-transform intersection,Drake Passage (Antarctica)

New swath bathymetric, multichannel seismic and magnetic data reveal the complexity of the intersection between the extinct West Scotia Ridge (WSR) and the Shackleton Fracture Zone (SFZ), a first-order NW-SE trending high-relief ridge cutting across the Drake Passage. The SFZ is composed of shallow, ridge segments and depressions, largely parallel to the fracture zone with an `en echelon' pattern in plan view. These features are bounded by tectonic lineaments, interpreted as faults. The axial valley of the spreading center intersects the fracture zone in a complex area of deformation, where N120° E lineaments and E–W faults anastomose on both sides of the intersection. The fracture zone developed within an extensional regime, which facilitated the formation of oceanic transverse ridges parallel to the fracture zone and depressions attributed to pull-apart basins, bounded by normal and strike-slip faults.On the multichannel seismic (MCS) profiles, the igneous crust is well stratified, with numerous discontinuous high-amplitude reflectors and many irregular diffractions at the top, and a thicker layer below. The latter has sparse and weak reflectors, although it locally contains strong, dipping reflections. A bright, slightly undulating reflector observed below the spreading center axial valley at about 0.75 s (twt) depth in the igneous crust is interpreted as an indication of the relict axial magma chamber. Deep, high-amplitude subhorizontal and slightly dipping reflections are observed between 1.8 and 3.2 s (twt) below sea floor, but are preferentially located at about 2.8–3.0 s (twt) depth. Where these reflections are more continuous they may represent the Mohorovicic seismic discontinuity. More locally, short (2–3 km long), very high-amplitude reflections observed at 3.6 and 4.3 s (twt) depth below sea floor are attributed to an interlayered upper mantle transition zone. The MCS profiles also show a pattern of regularly spaced, steep-inclined reflectors, which cut across layers 2 and 3 of the oceanic crust. These reflectors are attributed to deformation under a transpressional regime that developed along the SFZ, shortly after spreading ceased at the WSR. Magnetic anomalies 5 to 5 E may be confidently identified on the flanks of the WSR. Our spreading model assumes slow rates (ca. 10–20 mm/yr), with slight asymmetries favoring the southeastern flank between 5C and 5, and the northwestern flank between 5 and extinction. The spreading rate asymmetry means that accretion was slower during formation of the steeper, shallower, southeastern flank than of the northwestern flank.     

Coral communities and reefs from Guerrero,Southern Mexican Pacific

Corals in the Eastern Pacific extend south from the Gulf of California to Ecuador and oceanic Chile, and west from Colombia to Clipperton Atoll. Nevertheless, large stretches of the Mexican Pacific remain fundamentally unstudied. Therefore, to assess the current conditions of coral communities, a coastal fringe ～300 km long (17°40′ N, 101°39′ W to 16°46′ N, 99°49′ W) was surveyed within the Southern Mexican Pacific, between 2005 and 2009. Fifteen stony coral species were identified at 13 coral communities and six Pocillopora‐dominated fringing reefs, with Pocillopora verrucosa and Pocillopora damicornis the primary contributing taxa. Reef development was identified in embayments or behind rocks or islands that offered shelter from northern and northwestern winds. Observations of Pocillopora effusus, Pocillopora inflata, Porites lobata, Pavona clavus, and Pavona varians expanded the species known geographic ranges by several degrees of latitude, suggesting reef building fauna comprised a mixture of widespread and relatively rare Eastern Pacific corals. Results indicated greater live coral cover in the Ixtapa‐Zihuatanejo area (15–73%) than in the Acapulco localities, which had high algal dominance; the reefs in the latter region exhibited high erosion. Regional differences are likely the result of long‐standing anthropogenic pressures around Acapulco since 1950, when it became an important tourist destination. This paper is the first detailed report of ecologically stressed corals and coral reefs from the state of Guerrero on the Mexican Southern Pacific coast.