A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.     

Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.     

Mid and late Holocene forest fires and deforestation in the subalpine belt of the Iberian range,northern Spain

The conversion of subalpine forests into grasslands for pastoral use is a well-knownphenomenon, although for most mountain areas the timing of deforestation has not been determined. The presence of charcoal fragments in soil profiles affected by shallow landsliding enabled us to date the occurrence of fires and the periods of conversion ofsubalpine forest into grasslands in the Urbión Mountains, Iberian Range, Spain. We found that the treeline in the highest parts of the northwestern massifs of the Iberian Range(the Urbión, Demanda, Neila, and Cebollera massifs) is currently between 1500 and 1600 m a.s.l., probably because of pastoral use of the subalpine belt, whereas in the past it would have reached almost the highest divides(at approximately 2100–2200 m a.s.l.). The radiocarbon dates obtained indicate that the transformation of the subalpine belt occurred during the Late Neolithic, Chalcolithic, Bronze Age, Iron Age, and Middle Ages. Forest clearing was probably moderate during fires prior to the Middle Ages, as the small size of the sheep herds and the local character of the markets only required small clearings, and therefore more limited fires. Thus, it is likely that the forest recovered burnt areas in a few decades; this suggests the management of the forest and grasslands following a slash-andburn system. During the Middle and Modern Ages deforestation and grassland expansion affected most of the subalpine belt and coincided with the increasing prevalence of transhumance, as occurred in other mountains in the Iberian Peninsula(particularly the Pyrenees). Although the occurrence of shallow landslides following deforestation between the Neolithic and the Roman Period cannot be ruled out, the most extensive shallow landsliding processes would have occurred from the Middle Ages until recent times.     

Exploring seven hundred years of transhumance,climate dynamic,fire and human activity through a historical mountain pass in central Spain

A high-altitude peat sequence from the heart of the Spanish Central System (Gredos range) was analysed through a multi-proxy approach to determine the sensitivity of high-mountain habitats to climate, fire and land use changes during the last seven hundred years, providing valuable insight into our understanding of the vegetation history and environmental changes in a mountain pass close to a traditional route of transhumance. The pollen data indicate that the vegetation was dominated by shrublands and grasslands with scattered pines in high-mountain areas, while in the valleys cereals, chestnut and olive trees were cultivated. Strong declines of high-mountain pines percentages are recorded at 1540, 1675, 1765, 1835 and 1925 cal AD, which may be related to increasing grazing activities and/or the occurrence of anthropogenic fires. The practice of mountain summer farming and transhumance deeply changed and redesigned the landscape of the high altitudes in central Spain (Gredos range) since the Middle Ages, although its dynamics was influenced in some way by climate variability of the past seven centuries.     

Effects of grain morphology on critical state: a computational analysis

We introduce a new DEM scheme (LS-DEM) that takes advantage of level sets to enable the inclusion of real grain shapes into a classical discrete element method. Then, LS-DEM is validated and calibrated with respect to real experimental results. Finally, we exploit part of LS-DEM potentiality by using it to study the dependency of critical state (CS) parameters such as critical state line (CSL) slope \(\lambda \), CSL intercept \(\varGamma \), and CS friction angle \(\varPhi _{\mathrm{CS}}\) on the grain’s morphology, i.e., sphericity, roundness, and regularity. This study is carried out in three steps. First, LS-DEM is used to capture and simulate the shape of five different two-dimensional cross sections of real grains, which have been previously classified according to the aforementioned morphological features. Second, the same LS-DEM simulations are carried out for idealized/simplified grains, which are morphologically equivalent to their real counterparts. Third, the results of real and idealized grains are compared, so the effect of “imperfections” on real particles is isolated. Finally, trends for the CS parameters (CSP) dependency on sphericity, roundness, and regularity are obtained as well as analyzed. The main observations and remarks connecting particle’s morphology, particle’s idealization, and CSP are summarized in a table that is attempted to help in keeping a general picture of the analysis, results, and corresponding implications.     

Strength criterion for cross-anisotropic sand under general stress conditions

By incorporating the fabric effect and Lode’s angle dependence into the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion, a strength criterion for cross-anisotropic sand under general stress conditions was proposed. The obtained criterion has only three material parameters which can be specified by conventional triaxial tests. The formula to calculate the friction angle under any loading direction and intermediate principal stress ratio condition was deduced, and the influence of the degree of the cross-anisotropy was quantified. The friction angles of sand in triaxial, true triaxial, and hollow cylinder torsional shear tests were obtained, and a parametric analysis was used to detect the varying characteristics. The friction angle becomes smaller when the major principal stress changes from perpendicular to parallel to the bedding plane. The loading direction and intermediate principal stress ratio are unrelated in true triaxial tests, and their influences on the friction angle can be well captured by the proposed criterion. In hollow cylinder torsional shear tests with the same internal and external pressures, the loading direction and intermediate principal stress ratio are related. This property results in a lower friction angle in the hollow cylinder torsional shear test than that in the true triaxial test under the same intermediate principal stress ratio condition. By comparing the calculated friction angle with the experimental results under various loading conditions (e.g., triaxial, true triaxial, and hollow cylinder torsional shear test), the proposed criterion was verified to be able to characterize the shear strength of cross-anisotropic sand under general stress conditions.