Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geothermal palaeogradients and metamorphic zonation from the conodont colour alteration index (CAI)

The conodont colour alteration index (CAI) is potentially valuable in thermal history investigations, but there are problems in its use. An approach is proposed herein to overcome the problem of establishing reliable geothermal palaeogradients in areas with burial metamorphism, based on knowledge of the stratigraphic succession thickness, the boundaries of chronostratigraphic units, and the age and duration of deformation episodes. Although also problematical that a correlation between CAI and Kübler index (KI) values does not exist, there are areas where CAI and KI values are notably consistent for the anchizone boundaries; however, anomalous correlations between CAI and KI values have also been found in some areas. A CAI anchizone (or ancaizone) is defined in order to enable CAI values to be used independently to establish a metamorphic zonation.     

Dynamical evolution of NEAs: Close encounters, secular perturbations and resonances

We discuss the main mechanisms affecting the dynamical evolution of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by analyzing the results of three numerical integrations over 1 Myr of the NEA (4179) Toutatis. In the first integration the only perturbing planet is the Earth. So the evolution is dominated by close encounters and looks like a random walk in semimajor axis and a correlated random walk in eccentricity, keeping almost constant the perihelion distance and the Tisserand invariant. In the second integration Jupiter and Saturn are present instead of the Earth, and the 3/1 (mean motion) and v ₆ (secular) resonances substantially change the eccentricity but not the semimajor axis. The third, most realistic, integration including all the three planets together shows a complex interplay of effects, with close encounters switching the orbit between different resonant states and no approximate conservation of the Tisserand invariant. This shows that simplified 3-body or 4-body models cannot be used to predict the typical evolution patterns and time scales of NEAs, and in particular that resonances provide some fast-track dynamical routes from low-eccentricity to very eccentric, planet-crossing orbits.On leave from the Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Via Buonarroti 2, 56127 Pisa, Italy, thanks to the G. Colombo fellowships of the European Space Agency.     

État actuel des données sur l'âge de la terre

Sans résumé     

Effects of early season defoliation ofAnthyllis cytisoides(a Mediterranean browse species) on further herbivore attack

To determine if defoliation of a woody plant affects foraging by folivorous insects, we examined the infection rate (number of leaves damaged per total number of leaves sampled on marked stems) ofAnthyllis cytisoidesunder three experimental treatments: 10, 50 and 90% plant defoliation. Observations were made for three age classes, established by trunk base perimeter (equal to or lower than 11 cm, between 11 and 20 cm, larger than 20 cm). Plants respond positively to artificial defoliation by increasing total vegetative length of the stem and total inflorescence length. This response is most evident in young individuals.Response to herbivory was measured as overall infection rate and also as infection rate by different feeding guilds—chewing, mining, or sucking insects. We found that increased defoliation elicited increased resistance of leaves to insect attack. This was particularly evident in young plants. Different insect guilds respond in different ways. Attack by chewing insects declines with defoliation for all plant age classes; only sucking insects which feed on the oldest plants reduce feeding rate with plant defoliation. Finally, mining insects present the opposite trend in young and senescent plants.     

An expanded surface-water palaeotemperature inference model for use with fossil midges from eastern Canada

Using an expanded surface sample data set, representing lakes distributed across a transect from southernmost Canada to the Canadian High Arctic, a revised midge-palaeotemperature inference model was developed for eastern Canada. Modelling trials with weighted averaging (with classical and inverse deshrinking; with and without tolerance downweighting) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression, with and without square-root transformation of the species data, were used to identify the best model. Comparison of measured and predicted temperatures revealed that a 2 component WA-PLS model for square-root transformed percentage species data provided the model with the highest explained variance (r =0.88) and the lowest error estimate (RMSEP _jack =2.26 °C). Comparison of temperature inferences based on the new and old models indicates that the original model may have seriously under-estimated the magnitude of late-glacial temperature oscillations in Atlantic Canada. The new inferences suggest that summer surface water temperatures in Splan Pond, New Brunswick were approximately 10 to 12 °C immediately following deglaciation and during the Younger Dryas. During the Allerod and early Holocene, surface water temperatures of 20 to 24 °C were attained. The new model thus provides the basis for more accurate palaeotemperature reconstructions throughout easternmost Canada.     

Problems in relating the optical and X-ray emissions from a solar flare

We evaluate the possibility that the short-lived Balmer line emission at H9 3835 Å of the 1972, August 2 (1839 UT) solar flare is due to heating of the chromosphere by bombarding electrons. We point out some of the problems of comparing the time behavior and spatial distribution of simultaneous hard and soft X-ray emissions. It is concluded that the present data do not justify the attribution of the short-lived optical emission to the presumed hard X-ray producing electrons.     

Chemical signature of intermediate water masses along western Portuguese margin

Although the circulation of intermediate water masses in the eastern North Atlantic remains poorly defined, the presence of fresher intermediate waters, the Sub-Artic (SAIW) and the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), as well the saline intermediate Mediterranean Water (MW), has been tracked using biogeochemical properties. Here we assess the hydrographic and chemical structures of intermediate waters along the western Portuguese margin by examining the vertical distributions and property-property plots of chemical tracers (oxygen and nutrients). AAIW was traced by low oxygen and high nutrients, while SAIW was recognized by low nutrients. The Mediterranean Water (MW) undercurrent is shown to spread towards the eastern flank of Gorringe bank. Concurrently, the fresher waters gained salt by direct incorporation of MW, while this water was enriched in nutrients on its way northward and westward owing, to a great extent, to the entrainment of an AAIW branch. The distributions of nutrients and apparent oxygen utilization are discussed in terms of regional ocean circulation. Our analysis suggests a circulation pattern of the various intermediate waters along the western Portuguese margin: MW extends all over the area, but its presence is more pronounced around cape St. Vincent; SAIW apparently moves southward, reaching the Gorringe bank region, and AAIW flows northward along the coast and around the bank.