Classification of seismic signals at Villarrica volcano (Chile) using neural networks and genetic algorithms

Each volcano has its own unique seismic activity. The aim of this work is to construct a system able to classify seismic signals for the Villarrica volcano, one of the most active volcanoes in South America. Since seismic signals are the result of particular processes inside the volcano's structure, they can be used to forecast volcanic activity. This paper describes the different kinds of seismic signals recorded at the Villarrica volcano and their significance. Three kind of signals were considered as most representative of this volcano's activity: the long-period, the tremor, and the energetic tremor signals. A classifier is implemented to read the seismic registers at 30-second intervals, extract the most relevant features of each interval, and classify them into one of the three kinds of signals considered as most representative of this particular volcano. To do so, 1033 different kinds of 30-s signals were extracted and classified by a human expert. A feature extraction process was applied to obtain the main characteristics of each of them. This process was developed using criteria which have been shown by others to effectively classify seismic signals, based on the experience of a human expert. The classifier was implemented with a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network whose architecture and training process were optimized by means of a genetic algorithm. This technique searched for the most adequate MLP configuration to improve the classification performance, optimizing the number of hidden neurons, the transfer functions of the neurons, and the training algorithm. The optimization process also performed a feature selection to reduce the number of signal features, optimizing the number of network inputs. The results show that the optimized classifier reaches more than 93% exactitude. identifying the signals of each kind. The amplitude of the signals is the most important feature for its classification, followed by its frequency content. The described methodology can be used to classify more seismic signals to improve the study of the activity of this volcano or to extend the study to other active volcanoes of the region.     

Tidal disruption of globular clusters in dwarf galaxies with triaxial dark matter haloes

We use N -body simulations to study the tidal evolution of globular clusters (GCs) in dwarf spheroidal (dSph) galaxies. Our models adopt a cosmologically motivated scenario in which the dSph is approximated by a static Navarro, Frenk & White halo with a triaxial shape. We apply our models to five GCs spanning three orders of magnitude in stellar density and two in mass, chosen to represent the properties exhibited by the five GCs of the Fornax dSph. We show that only the object representing Fornax's least dense GC (F1) can be fully disrupted by Fornax's internal tidal field – the four denser clusters survive even if their orbits decay to the centre of Fornax. For a large set of orbits and projection angles, we examine the spatial and velocity distribution of stellar debris deposited during the complete disruption of an F1-like GC. Our simulations show that such debris appears as shells, isolated clumps and elongated overdensities at low surface brightness (≥26 mag arcsec⁻²), reminiscent of substructure observed in several Milky Way dSphs. Such features arise from the triaxiality of the galaxy potential and do not dissolve in time. The kinematics of the debris depends strongly on the progenitor's orbit. Debris associated with box and resonant orbits does not display stream motions and may appear 'colder'/'hotter' than the dSph's field population if the viewing angle is perpendicular/parallel to the progenitor's orbital plane. In contrast, debris associated with loop orbits shows a rotational velocity that may be detectable out to a few kpc from the galaxy centre. Chemical tagging that can distinguish GC debris from field stars may reveal whether the merger of GCs contributed to the formation of multiple stellar components observed in dSphs.     

Environmental conditions for gravelly and pebbly dunes and sorted bedforms on a moderate-energy inner shelf (Marettimo Island,Italy, western Mediterranean)

Side scan sonar records, sediment textural characteristics, and in-situ field observations were used to study gravelly and pebbly dunes and sorted bedforms on the inner shelf of Marettimo Island, along the northwestern Sicilian shelf. The dunes are composed of coarse sands, gravels and pebbles (D50: 2–16 mm), displaying a symmetrical shape with a wavelength in the range of 1–2.5 m and a height of 0.15–0.30 m. The bedforms are distributed in a patchy pattern in a depth range of 10–50 m, and are described for the first time on a Mediterranean inner shelf. Sorted bedforms are linear morphological features developed almost perpendicular to the coast in the eastern sector of the island between 15 and 50 m water depth. Bottom shear stresses required for sediment entrainment and the generation of the shallower dunes can be reached during strong storms (Hs=5–6 m; Tp=9–11 s), which are not common in the Mediterranean Sea. However, wave storm events recorded in the study area during the last 17 years are not able to generate the coarsest and deeper dunes, suggesting that the stirring mechanism for dune formation is associated with severe storms that have a recurrence interval of more than 17 years. The long-term stability of the coarse bedforms is supported by the permanence of sorted bedforms without significant morphological changes for long periods (>13 years). Therefore, it is shown that processes forming coarse bedforms can occur in tideless and moderate-energy settings like those of the Mediterranean continental shelves, although the morphological features are probably less dynamic and remain unaltered for longer periods than on higher-energy shelves.     

Impacts of climate change on building energy demands in the intra-Americas region

It was recently reported a regional warming in the intra-Americas region where sea surface temperature exhibited increases exceeding 0.15 °C/decade and an accelerated air temperature rise that could impact building energy demands per capita (EDC). Reanalysis data is used herein to quantify the impacts of these warming trends on EDC. Results of the analysis depict a Southern Greater Antilles and inland South America with a positive annual EDC rate of 1–5 kWh per year. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios were selected to analyze energy demand changes in the twenty-first century. A multi-model ensemble forecasts an EDC increase of 9.6 and 23 kWh/month in the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 at the end of the twenty-first century, which may increase average building cooling loads in the region by 7.57 GW (RCP2.6) and 8.15 GW (RCP4.5), respectively. Furthermore, 4 of 9 (RCP2.6) and 7 of 9 (RCP4.5) of the major countries in this region have EDCs ranging between 1887 and 2252 kWh/year at the end of this century. Therefore, increased energy production and improved energy infrastructure will be required to maintain ideal indoor building conditions at the end of the twenty-first century in these tropical coastal regions as consequence of a warmer climate.     

Correcting the Smoothing Effect of Ordinary Kriging Estimates

The smoothing effect of ordinary kriging is a well-known dangerous effect associated with this estimation technique. Consequently kriging estimates do not reproduce both histogram and semivariogram model of sample data. A four-step procedure for correcting the smoothing effect of ordinary kriging estimates is shown to be efficient for the reproduction of histogram and semivariogram without loss of local accuracy. Furthermore, this procedure provides a unique map sharing both local and global accuracies. Ordinary kriging with a proper correction for smoothing effect can be revitalized as a reliable estimation method that allows a better use of the available information.     

Coastal processes and environmental hazards: the Buenos Aires (Argentina) and Venetian (Italy) littorals

The Buenos Aires (Argentina) and Venice (Italy) coastlands have experienced significant saltwater contamination of the phreatic aquifer, coastal erosion, hydrodynamic changes and relative sea level rise processes due to natural and man-induced factors. These factors expose coastal areas to morpho-hydro-geological hazards, such as soil desertification, frequency and degree of flooding, littoral erosion, and the silting of river mouths and channels. Man-made interventions and actions, such as beach mining, construction of coastal structures and exploitation of aquifers without an adequate knowledge of the hydrology setting and an adequate management program, worsen these natural hazards. Uncontrolled human activity induces environmental damage to the overall coastal plains. The coastal plains play an important role in the social/economic development of the two regions based on land use, such as agriculture, horticulture, breeding, and tourism, as well as industry. Results of investigations on saltwater contamination, sea level rise and morphological changes recently performed in these two coastal areas are presented here.     

The chemical composition of solar-type stars in comparison with that of the Sun

The question whether the solar chemical composition is typical for solar-type stars is analysed by comparing the Sun with different stellar samples, including a sample of stars with very similar parameters, solar twins. Although typical in terms of overall metallicity for stars of solar age and galactic orbit, the solar atmosphere is found to have abundances, as compared with solar twins, that indicate that its gas has once been affected by dust formation and dust separation. It is concluded that this may be related to the formation of the solar planetary system and its special properties.     

The Effect of Vegetation Productivity on Millet Prices in the Informal Markets of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger

Systematic evaluation of food security throughout the Sahel has been attempted for nearly two decades. Food security analyses have used both food prices to determine the ability of the population to access food, and satellite-derived vegetation indices that measure vegetation production to establish how much food is available each year. The relationship between these two food security indicators is explored here using correspondence analysis and through the use of Markov chain models. Two sources of quantitative data were used: 8 km normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) carried on the NOAA series of satellites, and monthly millet prices from 445 markets in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. The results show that the growing season vegetation production is related to the price of millet at the annual and the seasonal time scales. If the growing season was characterized by erratic, sparse rainfall, it resulted in higher prices, and well-distributed, abundant rainfall resulted in lower prices. The correspondence between vegetation production and millet prices is used to produce maps of millet prices for West Africa.     

Influence of the oceanographic conditions during spring 2003 on the transport of the Prestige tanker fuel oil to the Galician coast

Hydrographic data collected during the cruise HIDROPRESTIGE were combined with meteorological and dynamic data provided by remote sensors and drifting/moored buoys, to describe the surface circulation of the Northern Iberian basin in March-April 2003. Sea surface winds transported the floating Prestige oil slicks from the sinking area to the continental slope off the Rías Baixas in 1/2 month: the surface current intensity was 2% of the wind intensity and it was rotated clockwise 5 degrees from the wind direction. Mesoscale cyclonic and anticyclonic structures west of 10 degrees W increased the residence time of oil patches in the Northern Iberian basin, as compared with the expected southwards flow of the Iberian current (IC). On the other hand, the Iberian poleward current (IPC) formed a marked surface front with coastal waters, preventing the entry of fuel oil into the rías. PAHs in the surface layer during the cruise were <0.5 microgL(-1), except in the Galicia bank (approximately 1 microg L(-1); where the Prestige tanker was still leaking) and the vicinity of Cape Fisterra (approximately 1.5 microg L(-1); where the convergence front between the IPC and coastal waters vanished).     

Phenological Changes of Blooming Diatoms Promoted by Compound Bottom-Up and Top-Down Controls

Understanding phytoplankton species-specific responses to multiple biotic and abiotic stressors is fundamental to assess phenological and structural shifts at the community level. Here, we present the case of Thalassiosira curviseriata, a winter-blooming diatom in the Bahía Blanca Estuary, Argentina, which displayed a noticeable decrease in the past decade along with conspicuous changes in phenology. We compiled interannual field data to assess compound effects of environmental variations and grazing by the invasive copepod Eurytemora americana. The two species displayed opposite trends over the period examined. The diatom decreased toward the last years, mainly during the winters, and remained relatively constant over the other seasons, while the copepod increased toward the last years, with an occurrence restricted to winter and early spring. A quantitative assessment by structural equation modeling unveiled that the observed long-term trend of T. curviseriata resulted from the synergistic effects of environmental changes driven by water temperature, salinity, and grazing. These results suggest that the shift in the abundance distribution of T. curviseriata toward higher annual ranges of temperature and salinity—as displayed by habitat association curves—constitutes a functional response to avoid seasonal overlapping with its predator in late winters. The observed changes in the timing and abundance of the blooming species resulted in conspicuous shifts in primary production pulses. Our results provide insights on mechanistic processes shaping the phenology and structure of phytoplankton blooms.