Saao standards for infrared photometry

I discuss the Infrared standards used at the South African Astronomical Observatory and their comparisons to the other Southern hemisphere Infrared standard systems. The new faint standards suitable for Infrared arrays are also discussed.     

A 2D coupled finite element and boundary element scheme to simulate the elastic behaviour of jointed rocks

In this paper a coupled finite and boundary element formulation is developed for the analysis of excavation in jointed rock. The presence of joints in the rock mass has been included implicitly by treating it as an appropriate anisotropic elastic continuum. The boundary element formulation for an anisotropic medium is briefly discussed. Good agreement has been found between numerical and analytical solutions for several example problems, demonstrating the accuracy of the present formulation. Numerical solutions are also presented for the problems of a deep circular tunnel and a basement excavated in a variety of jointed rock masses.     

Ocean effects on time delay estimation requiring adaptation

In active sonar and in passive sonar localization, time delay is a fundamental parameter whose extraction is vital to the sonar function. The underlying time delay parameter (or parameter vector) contains information about the acoustic source (or reflector) as seen through the ocean at a receiver. The ocean effects require sonar adaptation. A tutorial review of ocean effects in time delay estimation is provided, with references to benchmark work. It covers coherence, time-delay estimation, localization, time-varying time delay estimation, the complexity of the ocean environment, and depth estimation using mode matching     

An analysis of history matching errors

We use a simple 2D model of a layered reservoir with three unknown parameters: the throw of a fault, and high and low permeabilities. Then consider three different cases where in each case two parameters are kept fixed and the third one is varied within a specific range. Using a weighted sum of squares of the difference in production for the objective function, we plot it against the varying parameter for each case. It mainly shows a complex function with multiple minima. We see that geological ‘symmetry’ and also vertical spreading are some sources of non-monotonicity in the production and transmissibility curves. These result in a multi-modal objective function and consequently non-unique history matches. The behaviour of the system in the forecast period is also studied, which shows that a good history matched model could give a bad forecast.     

Prototyping a global soft X‐ray imaging instrument for heliophysics,planetary science,and astrophysics science

We describe current progress in the development of a prototype wide field‐of‐view soft X‐ray imager that employs Lobster‐eye optics and targets heliophysics, planetary, and astrophysics science. The prototype will provide proof‐of‐concept for a future flight instrument capable of imaging the entire dayside magnetosheath from outside the magnetosphere. Such an instrument was proposed for the ESA AXIOM mission (© 2012 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Orbital identification of clays and carbonates in Gusev crater

Gusev crater was selected as the landing site of one of the two NASA Mars Exploration Rovers because water once could have ponded within the crater and partly filled it with sediments as suggested by the presence of a feeder channel and the fluvial-lacustrine morphology of the in-filling. However, the paucity of mineralogical evidence for fluvial-lacustrine activity revealed by the Spirit rover has remained a puzzle for years. Using orbital, near-infrared imaging spectroscopy, we report the detection of phyllosilicates and carbonates within and around the landing site of Spirit on the floor of Gusev crater. Placed in their geomorphological context, these minerals shed new light on the aqueous history of this crater, and offer a framework for the Spirit in situ measurements.     

AXIOM: advanced X-ray imaging of the magnetosphere

Planetary plasma and magnetic field environments can be studied in two complementary ways—by in situ measurements, or by remote sensing. While the former provide precise information about plasma behaviour, instabilities and dynamics on local scales, the latter offers the global view necessary to understand the overall interaction of the magnetospheric plasma with the solar wind. Some parts of the Earth’s magnetosphere have been remotely sensed, but the majority remains unexplored by this type of measurements. Here we propose a novel and more elegant approach employing remote X-ray imaging techniques, which are now possible thanks to the relatively recent discovery of solar wind charge exchange X-ray emissions in the vicinity of the Earth’s magnetosphere. In this article we describe how an appropriately designed and located X-ray telescope, supported by simultaneous in situ measurements of the solar wind, can be used to image the dayside magnetosphere, magnetosheath and bow shock, with a temporal and spatial resolution sufficient to address several key outstanding questions concerning how the solar wind interacts with the Earth’s magnetosphere on a global level. Global images of the dayside magnetospheric boundaries require vantage points well outside the magnetosphere. Our studies have led us to propose ‘AXIOM: Advanced X-ray Imaging of the Magnetosphere’, a concept mission using a Vega launcher with a LISA Pathfinder-type Propulsion Module to place the spacecraft in a Lissajous orbit around the Earth–Moon L1 point. The model payload consists of an X-ray Wide Field Imager, capable of both imaging and spectroscopy, and an in situ plasma and magnetic field measurement package. This package comprises a Proton-Alpha Sensor, designed to measure the bulk properties of the solar wind, an Ion Composition Analyser, to characterise the minor ion populations in the solar wind that cause charge exchange emission, and a Magnetometer, designed to measure the strength and direction of the solar wind magnetic field. We also show simulations that demonstrate how the proposed X-ray telescope design is capable of imaging the predicted emission from the dayside magnetosphere with the sensitivity and cadence required to achieve the science goals of the mission.     

Changes in frost, snow and Baltic sea ice by the end of the twenty-first century based on climate model projections for Europe

Changes in indices related to frost and snow in Europe by the end of the twenty-first century were analyzed based on experiments performed with seven regional climate models (RCMs). All the RCMs regionalized information from the same general circulation model (GCM), applying the IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing scenario. In addition, some simulations used SRES B2 radiative forcing and/or boundary conditions provided by an alternative GCM. Ice cover over the Baltic Sea was examined using a statistical model that related the annual maximum extent of ice to wintertime coastal temperatures. Fewer days with frost and snow, shorter frost seasons, a smaller liquid water equivalent of snow, and milder sea ice conditions were produced by all model simulations, irrespective of the forcing scenario and the driving GCM. The projected changes have implications across a diverse range of human activities. Details of the projections were subject to differences in RCM design, deviations between the boundary conditions of the driving GCMs, uncertainties in future emissions and random effects due to internal climate variability. A larger number of GCMs as drivers of the RCMs would most likely have resulted in somewhat wider ranges in the frost, snow and sea ice estimates than those presented in this paper.     

A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways

The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves.