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51.
Characterising the dependence between extremes of wave spectral parameters such as significant wave height (HS) and spectral peak period (TP) is important in understanding extreme ocean environments and in the design and assessment of marine structures. For example, it is known that mean values of wave periods tend to increase with increasing storm intensity. Here we seek to characterise joint dependence in a straightforward manner, accessible to the ocean engineering community, using a statistically sound approach.Many methods of multivariate extreme value analyses are based on models which assume implicitly that in some joint tail region each parameter is either independent of or asymptotically dependent on other parameters; yet in reality the dependence structure in general is neither of these. The underpinning assumption of multivariate regular variation restricts these methods to estimation of joint regions in which all parameters are extreme; but regions where only a subset of parameters are extreme can be equally important for design. The conditional approach of Heffernan and Tawn (2004), similar in spirit to that of Haver (1985) but with better theoretical foundation, overcomes these difficulties.We use the conditional approach to characterise the dependence structure of HS and TP. The key elements of the procedure are: (1) marginal modelling for all parameters, (2) transformation of data to a common standard Gumbel marginal form, (3) modelling dependence between data for extremes of pairs of parameters using a form of regression, (4) simulation of long return periods to estimate joint extremes. We demonstrate the approach in application to measured and hindcast data from the Northern North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the North West Shelf of Australia. We also illustrate the use of data re-sampling techniques such as bootstrapping to estimate the uncertainty in marginal and dependence models and accommodate this uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation.We discuss the current approach in the context of other approaches to multivariate extreme value estimation popular in the ocean engineering community. 相似文献
52.
This paper presents recent advances in knowledge on wave loads, based on experimental work carried out in the CIEM/LIM large flume at Barcelona within the framework of the VOWS (Violent Overtopping by Waves at Seawalls) project. Both quasi-static and impact wave forces from the new data set have been compared with predictions by empirical and analytical methods. The scatter in impact forces has been found to be large over the whole range of measurements, with no existing method giving especially good predictions. Based on general considerations, a simple and intuitive set of prediction formulae has been introduced for quasi-static and impact forces, and overturning moments, giving good agreement with the new measurements. New prediction formulae have been compared with previous measurements from physical model tests at small and large scale, giving satisfactory results over a relatively wide range of test conditions. The time variation of wave impacts is discussed, together with pressure distribution up the wall, which shows that within experimental limitations the measured pressures are within existing limits of previous study. 相似文献
53.
Regional modelling of permafrost thicknesses over the past 130 ka: implications for permafrost development in Great Britain 下载免费PDF全文
Jonathan P. Busby Jonathan R. Lee Sev Kender Paul Williamson Simon Norris 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2016,45(1):46-60
The greatest thicknesses of permafrost in Great Britain most likely occurred during the last glacial–interglacial cycle, as this is when some of the coldest conditions occurred during the last 1 000 000 years. The regional development of permafrost across Great Britain during the last glacial–interglacial cycle was modelled from a ground surface temperature history based on mean annual temperatures and the presence of glacier ice. To quantify the growth and decay of permafrost, modelling was undertaken at six locations across Great Britain that represent upland glaciated, lowland glaciated, upland unglaciated and lowland unglaciated conditions. Maximum predicted permafrost depths derived in this academic study range between several tens of metres to over 100 m depending upon various factors including elevation, glacier ice cover, geothermal heat flux and air temperature. In general, the greatest maximum permafrost thicknesses occur at upland glaciated locations, with minimum thickness at lowland sites. Current direct geological evidence for permafrost is from surface or shallow processes, mainly associated with the active layer. Further research is recommended to identify the imprint of freeze/thaw conditions in permanently frozen porous rocks from beneath the active layer. 相似文献
54.
Aurélia Mouret Pierre Anschutz Bruno Deflandre Gwénaëlle Chaillou Christelle Hyacinthe Jonathan Deborde Henri Etcheber Jean-Marie Jouanneau Antoine Grémare Pascal Lecroart 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2010,57(4):528-540
The relationship between particulate organic carbon (POC) concentrations measured in modern sediment and fluxes of exported POC to the sediment surface needs to be understood in order to use POC content as a proxy of paleo-environmental conditions. The objective of our study was to compare POC concentrations, POC mineralization rates calculated from O2 consumption and POC burial rates. Benthic O2 distributions were determined in 58 fine-grained sediment cores collected at different periods at 14 stations in the southeastern part of the Bay of Biscay with depths ranging from 140 to 2800 m. Depth-dependent volume-specific oxygen consumption rates were used to assess rates of aerobic oxidation of organic matter (OM), assuming that O2 consumption solely was related to heterotrophic activity at the sediment–water interface. Heterogeneity of benthic O2 fluxes denoted changes in time and space of fresh organic material sedimentation. The most labile fraction of exported POC engendered a steep decrease in concentration in the upper 5 mm of vertical O2 profiles. The rupture in the gradient of O2 microprofile may be related to the bioturbation-induced mixing depth of fast-decaying carbon. Average diffusive O2 fluxes showed that this fast-decaying OM flux was much higher than buried POC, although diffusive O2 fluxes underestimated the total sediment oxygen demand, and thus the fast-decaying OM flux to the sediment surface. Sedimentary POC burial was calculated from sediment mass accumulation rate and the organic carbon content measured at the top of the sediment. The proportion of buried POC relative to total exported POC ranged at the most between 50% and 10%, depending on station location. Therefore, for a narrow geographic area like the Bay of Biscay, burial efficiency of POC was variable. A fraction of buried POC consisted of slow-decaying OM that was mineralized within the upper decimetres of sediment through oxic and anoxic processes. This fraction was deduced from the decrease with depth in POC concentration. At sites located below 500 m water depth, where the fast-decaying carbon did not reach the anoxic sediment, the slow-decaying pool may control the O2 penetration depth. Only refractory organic material was fossilized in sedimentary records at locations where labile OM did not reach the anoxic portion of the sediment. 相似文献
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56.
Robert S. Webb Jonathan T. Overpeck David M. Anderson Bruce A. Bauer Mildred K. England Wendy S. Gross E. Ann Meyers Michael M. Worobec 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1993,9(1):69-75
Conclusion The World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology, located in the NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, is committed to providing the scientific community with easy access to all paleoenvironmental data. Efforts to make archived data readily available include international coordination of data acquisition, management, and distribution, sponsoring workshops and data cooperatives to facilitate the compilation of important data sets, development of a browse and visualization software package (PaleoVu), and dispersal of archived data on magnetic media or over ANONYMOUS FTP/INTERNET. The program publishes a semi-annual newsletter that highlights latest developments and accomplishments in the area of paleoenvironmental data for global change research. Contributions to the newsletter are welcome from researchers describing their efforts to coordinate the free flow of paleoclimate data throughout the international scientific community.For information on the program or to be added to the mailing list contact Mrs Mildred England (phone: 303-497-6227; Fax: 303 497-6513; e-mail: MKE@mail.ngdc.noaa.gov), NOAA National Geophysical Data Center, Paleoclimatology Program/World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology, 325 Broadway, E/GC Boulder, CO 80303 USA 相似文献
57.
Life-history or personal narrative techniques have considerable potential as a way of recovering hidden histories, contesting academic androcentrism, and reinstating the marginalized and dispossessed as makers of their own past. Drawing on a large methodological literature on life-history collection, and applications of these techniques in Africa, we argue that geographers might explore these methodologies as a means of recovering lost geographies and venting alternative voices in academic texts. Drawing on our own project on Swazi migrant women, we suggest that life-histories cannot, however, be seen purely as vehicles for the delivery of uncontaminated fact about the past. Rather personal narratives should be viewed and interpreted as interactive texts. This leads us to a consideration of a number of methodological and interpretive issues surrounding life-history collection: the positional advantages of insider status, the “terrible assymetries” of the interview process, and the power (and pitfalls) of narrative forms of representation. 相似文献
58.
Partial control of climate by the biosphere may be possible through a chain of processes that ultimately links marine plankton production of dimethylsulfide (DMS) with changes in cloud albedo (Charlson et al., 1987). Changes in cloud optical properties can have profound impacts on atmospheric radiation transfer and, hence, the surface environment. In this study, we have developed a simple model that incorporates empirically based parameterizations to account for the biological control of cloud droplet concentration in a first attempt to estimate the strength of the DMS-cloud albedo feedback mechanism. We find that the feedback reduces the global climatic response to imposed perturbations in solar insolation by less than 7%. Likewise, it modifies the strength of other feedbacks affecting surface insolation over oceans by roughly the same amount. This suggests that the DMS-cloud albedo mechanism will be unable to substantially reduce climate sensitivity, although these results should be confirmed with less idealized models when more is known about the net production of DMS by the marine biosphere and its relation to aerosol/cloud microphysics and climate. 相似文献
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60.
Summary Litton Divisions presently produce both high accuracy GPS surveyors and low—cost GPS navigation sets. Aero Service'sMACROMETER
R Interferometric Surveyors, have become the standard against which GPS surveying equipment is measured. Litton Aero Products
has developed a highly digitized, low costL
1,C/A code GPS card set. The integration of these technologies had led to the development of a low-cost, high-precision, GPS survey
system which can be configured with or without a codelessL
2 capability.
TheMINI-MAC surveying system is the first member of the new generation of GPS survey systems resulting from this joint development. The
system design is described in this paper, and initial survey test results using a prototypeMINI-MAC surveying system are presented. 相似文献