High-resolution fjord sediment record of a receding glacier with growing intermediate proglacial lake (Steffen Fjord,Chilean Patagonia)

Proglacial lakes are effective sediment traps but their impact on the reliability of downstream sediment records to reconstruct glacier variability remains unclear. Here, we investigate the sedimentary signature of the recent recession of Steffen Glacier (Chilean Patagonia, 47°S) in downstream fjord sediments, with a focus on identifying the trapping (decreased downstream sediment yield) and filtering (removal of coarse particles) effectiveness of a growing intermediate proglacial lake. Four sediment cores were collected along a 14 km longitudinal transect in Steffen Fjord and the sediment physical and chemical properties were compared with aerial imagery at high temporal resolution. The caesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs) chronology of the most distal core and sediment trap data suggest that sediment accumulation in the fjord remained relatively stable through time, despite the accelerating glacier recession and the growth of Steffen proglacial lake. This is in contrast with many studies that indicate a decrease in sediment yield during proglacial lake expansion. It implies that the increase in sediment export due to accelerating meltwater production may be balanced by the sediment trapping effect of the growing proglacial lake. The fjord sediments show a slight fining upward accompanied by a marked decrease in flood-induced grain-size peaks, most likely due to the increasing filtering and dampening effect of the expanding proglacial lake. Our findings show that the filtering effect of the proglacial lake reached a threshold in 1985, when the lake attained an area of 2.02 km². The additional 5 km of glacier recession during the following 32 years did not have any significant impact on downstream sedimentation. This study confirms that proglacial lakes act as sediment traps but it indicates that (1) the trapping effect can be outpaced by accelerating glacier recession and (2) the filtering effect becomes stable once the lake attains a certain critical size. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Validation of IPCC AR4 models over the Iberian Peninsula

This paper reports analysis of the ability of 24 coupled global climate models that were used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to simulate the current monthly seasonal cycle of sea level pressure, surface air temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in the last two decades of the twentieth century. The period investigated runs from 1979 to 1998. In order to assess the performance of the models, averaged seasonal cycles and probability density functions (PDFs) calculated from model simulations are compared with the corresponding seasonal cycles, whilst PDFs are also obtained using the data from the ERA40 reanalysis and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. We found that simulated PDFs generally provided a better fit to actual PDFs than seasonal cycles do. This conclusion indicates that when evaluating model performance, the climate variability as measured by means of PDFs is not the only climatic element that should be tested. Regarding the comparison based on the seasonal cycle, results also show that the root mean square skill score is more useful than the r skill score. To rank the AR4 models, sea level pressure, surface air temperature and precipitation variables were selected and a group of five AR4 models were identified as the models which best reproduce current climate in the area: MIROC3.2-HIRES, MPI-ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.1, BCCR-BCM2.0 and UKMO-HADGEM1. The rank obtained should not be understood in a hierarchical manner because there is a certain degree of internal variability in the model ensembles. Finally, it should be noted that these results are in good agreement with other classifications found in the scientific literature.     

Do long lived seabirds reduce the negative effects of acute pollution on adult survival by skipping breeding? A study with European storm petrels (Hydrobates pelagicus) during the "Prestige" oil-spill

We estimated the survival probability of breeding European storm petrels before, during and after a severe oil-spill. We hypothesized that petrels might have deserted the breeding colony to maximize their own survival probability and we expected no major change on adult survival probabilities as a consequence of the spill. We used an information-theoretical approach and multi-model inference to assess the strength of the evidence in favour of different hypotheses.Evidence contained in the data clearly supported the non-effect of the spill on adult survival hypothesis while punctual impact of the spill on survival and expanded (3 years) impact alternatives received less support. The effect size of the spill on averaged survival estimates was negligible in every case. We suggest that petrels minimized the impact of acute pollution by not investing in reproduction. We suggest that short-medium term management actions after oil-spills and similar catastrophes should focus on ecosystem restoration.     

The once and future pulse of Indian monsoonal climate

We present a comprehensive assessment of the present and expected future pulse of the Indian monsoon climate based on observational and global climate model projections. The analysis supports the view that seasonal Indian monsoon rains in the latter half of the 21th century may not be materially different in abundance to that experienced today although their intensity and duration of wet and dry spells may change appreciably. Such an assessment comes with considerable uncertainty. With regard to temperature, however, we find that the Indian temperatures during the late 21st Century will very likely exceed the highest values experienced in the 130-year instrumental record of Indian data. This assessment comes with higher confidence than for rainfall because of the large spatial scale driving the thermal response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing. We also find that monsoon climate changes, especially temperature, could heighten human and crop mortality posing a socio-economic threat to the Indian subcontinent.     

Cosmogenic nuclide constraints on glacial chronology in the source area of the Urumqi River,Tian Shan,China

Cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating of boulders and erratics provides new constraints for a glacial chronology in the source area of the Urumqi River, Tian Shan, China. ¹⁰Be exposure ages of 15.0 ± 1.3–17.1 ± 1.5 ka from the Upper Wangfeng (UWF) moraines agree well with their previous relative age assignments to marine isotope stage (MIS) 2, but are younger than published AMS ¹⁴C and electron spin resonance (ESR) ages (from 22.8 ± 0.6 to 37.4 ka). This difference may result from variations in techniques, or could reflect the impact of surface erosion and sediment/snow cover on surface exposure dating. ¹⁰Be ages from the Lower Wangfeng (LWF) moraines (18.7 ± 1.8 and 16.2 ± 1.5 ka) are indistinguishable from the UWF exposure ages, but are significantly younger than previously reported thermoluminescence (TL) and ESR ages (37.7 ± 2.6–184.7 ± 18 ka). Either these two groups were formed during the same period (MIS 2) and there are problems with TL and ESR ages, or the moraines were of very different ages and the similar exposure ages result from different degrees of degradation. Erratics on rock steps and a drumlin along >8 km of the main glacial valley above the UWF have internally consistent and slightly decreasing ¹⁰Be exposure ages indicating glacier retreat >2.5 m a^?1 after MIS 2 and before middle or late Holocene glacier re‐advances. This retreat rate is similar to rates observed from modern glaciers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The 2dF-SDSS LRG and QSO Survey: the star formation histories of luminous red galaxies

We present a detailed investigation into the recent star formation histories of 5697 luminous red galaxies (LRGs) based on the Hδ (4101 Å), and [O  ii ] (3727 Å) lines and the D4000 index. LRGs are luminous  ( L > 3 L *)  galaxies which have been selected to have photometric properties consistent with an old, passively evolving stellar population. For this study, we utilize LRGs from the recently completed 2dF-SDSS LRG and QSO Survey (2SLAQ). Equivalent widths of the Hδ and [O  ii ] lines are measured and used to define three spectral types, those with only strong Hδ absorption (k+a), those with strong [O  ii ] in emission (em) and those with both (em+a). All other LRGs are considered to have passive star formation histories. The vast majority of LRGs are found to be passive (∼80 per cent); however, significant numbers of k+a (2.7 per cent), em+a (1.2 per cent) and em LRGs (8.6 per cent) are identified. An investigation into the redshift dependence of the fractions is also performed. A sample of SDSS MAIN galaxies with colours and luminosities consistent with the 2SLAQ LRGs is selected to provide a low-redshift comparison. While the em and em+a fractions are consistent with the low-redshift SDSS sample, the fraction of k+a LRGs is found to increase significantly with redshift. This result is interpreted as an indication of an increasing amount of recent star formation activity in LRGs with redshift. By considering the expected lifetime of the k+a phase, the number of LRGs which will undergo a k+a phase can be estimated. A crude comparison of this estimate with the predictions from semi-analytic models of galaxy formation shows that the predicted level of k+a and em+a activities is not sufficient to reconcile the predicted mass growth for massive early types in a hierarchical merging scenario.     

Challenges and lessons from a wetland LiDAR project: a case study of the Okefenokee Swamp,Georgia, USA

Airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) provides opportunities to generate high-quality digital elevation models (DEMs) even in wetland environments. Our project, performed over the Okefenokee Swamp in Georgia during the spring of 2010, shows that several, distinctive factors must be considered to ensure successful wetland LiDAR projects. Some of the challenges include selecting optimal flight times in accordance with weather variability and water levels, having effective and quality control protocols, applying and developing filtering and interpolation algorithms, breaklines in swamps and accounting for data striping and noise. While some of these issues are faced in any airborne LiDAR acquisition, many of these require special consideration in a low-slope wetland environment with water saturated soils, widespread shallow water, and sediments and extensive vegetation. An examination of these issues and how they were handled will help in ensuring the success of future LiDAR acquisitions and, in particular, will advance knowledge of producing quality DEMs in wetland environments.     

Closed Basin Modes of a Dual Basin Harbour

Closed basin seiches have been studied in Port Kembla, Australia, a compound harbour comprising two basins linked by a narrow channel. Despite the irregular geometry, there are well defined closed basin resonances which may be excited by long waves incident on the harbour entrance. The March 2011 Japanese tsunami excited open-basin modes, but did not significantly excite closed-basin modes. This is attributed to the very low incident wave energy at those frequencies. While the direct forcing of a closed basin mode has been extensively studied, the indirect forcing via an independent open-basin mode found here has not been extensively studied. It was found that single basin modes are more readily excited than the higher dual basin harmonics and the role of the irregular geometry in inhibiting some modes is discussed. The non-linear generation of a higher frequency mode unrelated to the forcing mode is demonstrated.     

IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION ON SURFACE HYDROLOGY,LITTLE EAGLE CREEK,INDIANA, AND ANALYSIS OF LTHIA MODEL SENSITIVITY TO DATA RESOLUTION

Land-use change in urbanizing areas can significantly alter the hydrology of a watershed and can have serious impacts on wetland water balances, downstream flooding, and groundwater recharge. Most currently available models used in determining the hydrologic impacts of urbanization are not well suited to long-term hydrologic analysis or are too complex and data intensive for widespread practical application. The Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (LTHIA) model run on a Geographic Information System (GIS) is a relatively simple, user-friendly model that uses the Curve Number method to estimate changes in surface runoff between different stages of development. Application of the model to a large, rapidly urbanizing watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana, suggests that average annual runoff depths increased by more than 60% from 1973 to 1991, with even greater increases for some individual sub-basins. These results are consistent with runoff changes estimated from historical stream flow data in the watershed. A sensitivity analysis to determine minimum data requirements shows that a precipitation record length of 15 years or more is required to produce consistent results with LTHIA and that the highest possible resolution land-use and soils data should be used. The LTHIA model is now available on the Internet at http://www.ecn.purdue.edu/runoff. [Key words: hydrology, urbanization, modeling, GIS.]