Growing Threat of Rapidly-Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in East Asia

This study examines the long-term change in the threat of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs) in East Asia over the period 1975–2020 with a focus on rapidly intensifying(RI) TCs. The increase in the annual number of RI-TCs over the western North Pacific and the northwestward shift of their genesis location lead to an increasing trend in the annual number of landfalling RI-TCs along the coast of East Asia. The annual power dissipation index(PDI), a measure of the destructive potential of RI-TCs at landfall, also shows a significant increasing trend due to increases in the annual frequency and mean landfall intensity of landfalling RI-TCs. The increase in mean landfall intensity is related to a higher lifetime maximum intensity(LMI) and the LMI location of the landfalling RI-TCs being closer to the coast. The increase in the annual PDI of East Asia is mainly associated with landfalling TCs in the southern(the Philippines, South China, and Vietnam) and northern parts(Japan and the Korean Peninsula) of East Asia due to long-term changes in vertical wind shear and TC heat potential. The former leads to a northwestward shift of favorable environments for TC genesis and intensification, resulting in the northwestward shift in the genesis, RI, and LMI locations of RI-TCs. The latter provides more heat energy from the ocean for TC intensification, increasing its chances to undergo RI.     

Sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone size to microphysics schemes

The sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone(TC) size to microphysics schemes is studied using the Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF). Six TCs during the 2013 western North Pacific typhoon season and three mainstream microphysics schemes–Ferrier(FER), WRF Single-Moment 5-class(WSM5) and WRF Single-Moment6-class(WSM6)–are investigated. The results consistently show that the simulated TC track is not sensitive to the choice of microphysics scheme in the early simulation, especially in the open ocean. However, the sensitivity is much greater for TC intensity and inner-core size. The TC intensity and size simulated using the WSM5 and WSM6 schemes are respectively higher and larger than those using the FER scheme in general, which likely results from more diabatic heating being generated outside the eyewall in rainbands. More diabatic heating in rainbands gives higher inflow in the lower troposphere and higher outflow in the upper troposphere, with higher upward motion outside the eyewall. The lower-tropospheric inflow would transport absolute angular momentum inward to spin up tangential wind predominantly near the eyewall, leading to the increment in TC intensity and size(the inner-core size, especially). In addition, the inclusion of graupel microphysics processes(as in WSM6) may not have a significant impact on the simulation of TC track, intensity and size.     

The response of a gravel‐bed river planform configuration to flow variations and bed reworking: a modelling study

A 2D depth‐averaged model has been developed for simulating water flow, sediment transport and morphological changes in gravel‐bed rivers. The model was validated with a series of laboratory experiments and then applied to the Nove reach of the Brenta River (Northern Italy) to assess its bed material transport, interpret channel response to a series of intensive flood events (R.I. ≈ 10 years) and provide a possible evolutionary scenario for the medium term. The study reach is 1400 m long with a mean slope of 0.0039 m m^?1. High‐resolution digital terrain models were produced combining LiDAR data with colour bathymetry techniques. Extensive field sedimentological surveys were also conducted for surface and subsurface material. Data were uploaded in the model and the passage of two consecutive high intensity floods was simulated. The model was run under several hypotheses of sediment supply: one considering substantial equilibrium between sediment input and transport capacity, and the others reducing the sediment supply. The sediment supply was then calibrated comparing channel morphological changes as observed in the field and calculated by the model. Annual bed material transport was assessed and compared with other techniques. Low‐frequency floods (R.I. ≈ 1.5 years) are expected to produce negligible changes in the channel while high floods may erode banks rather than further incising the channel bed. Location and distribution of erosion and deposition areas within the Nove reach were predicted with acceptable biases stemming from imperfections of the model and the specified initial, boundary and forcing conditions. A medium‐term evolutionary scenario simulation underlined the different response to and impact of a consecutive sequence of floods. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Biochip for astrobiological applications: Investigation of low energy protons effects on antibody performances

Antibody-based micro-arrays instruments are very promising tools for the search for biomarkers in planetary exploration missions. Since such instruments have never been used in this context, it is important to test their resistance to space constraints. In particular, cosmic particles might be deleterious. In the present study, we have investigated the effect of low energy protons (2 MeV) on antibody performances with fluences levels much greater than expected for a typical mission to Mars. We show that these particles do not alter significantly the antibody recognition capability for both free (in solution) and grafted (covalently bound to the support) freeze–dried antibodies. Details of the freeze–dried drying process used to optimize antibody performances during our experiments are also presented.     

An investigation into the correlations among GNSS observations and their impact on height and zenith wet delay estimation for medium and long baselines

Most stochastic modelling techniques neglect the correlations among the raw un-differenced observations when forming the variance–covariance matrix of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations. Some methods were developed to model these correlations. One such method is the Minimum Norm Quadratic Unbiased Estimator (MINQUE). Studies have shown that MINQUE improves ambiguity resolution, and ultimately, the positioning solution in short baselines. However, its effect in cases of processing with longer baselines and on the estimation of zenith wet delay (ZWD) is somewhat unknown. In this paper, a comparison between the impact of neglecting the correlations among the observations using an elevation-angle-dependent model (EADM) and modelling the correlations using MINQUE on height determination and ZWD for medium and long baselines is carried out. The initial testing was carried out across two Australian GNSS stations with a medium-length baseline throughout a three-week campaign. The results showed that using MINQUE did not resolve the coordinate, height and wet delay components as accurately as the EADM. The results were further verified with two long-baseline campaigns whereby EADM was also able to provide better wet delay estimates. The coordinate results were, however, mixed. Overall, the study concluded that the inclusion of the correlations among the observations, in general, do not improve the resolution of the coordinate and wet delay estimates.     

在EBEX-2000实验资料中湍流谱和局地各向同性特征

采用2000年8月在美国加州棉花地两个高度上应用超声三分量仪、快速响应050206 温度和湿度仪进行的EBEX-2000 (International Energy Balance Experiment,2000,EBEX-2000)风速三分量、温度和湿度湍流实验观测数据,计算分析了湍流速度、温度和湿度谱在不同稳定度下的特征.对湍流的局地各向同性进行了讨论并与Kansas和长白山原始森林湍流实验得到的结果进行了比较,得到了一些湍流特征量在不同下垫面情况下的一些有意义的特征.     

Impacts of Urbanization on the Precipitation Characteristics in Guangdong Province,China

With the development of urbanization, whether precipitation characteristics in Guangdong Province, China, from 1981 to 2015 have changed are investigated using rain gauge data from 76 stations. These characteristics include annual precipitation, rainfall frequency, intense rainfall(defined as hourly precipitation ≥ 20 mm), light precipitation(defined as hourly precipitation ≤ 2.5 mm), and extreme rainfall(defined as hourly rainfall exceeding the 99.9 th percentile of the hourly rainfall distribution). During these 35 years, the annual precipitation shows an increasing trend in the urban areas.While rainfall frequency and light precipitation have a decreasing trend, intense rainfall frequency shows an increasing trend. The heavy and extreme rainfall frequency both exhibit an increasing trend in the Pearl River Delta region, where urbanization is the most significant. These trends in both the warm seasons(May-October) and during the pre-flood season(April-June) appear to be more significant. On the contrary, the annual precipitation amount in rural areas has a decreasing trend. Although the heavy and extreme precipitation also show an increasing trend, it is not as strong and significant as that in the urban areas. During periods in which a tropical cyclone makes landfall along the South China Coast, the rainfall in urban areas has been consistently more than that in surrounding areas. The precipitation in the urban areas and to their west is higher after 1995, when the urbanization accelerated. These results suggest that urbanization has a significant impact on the precipitation characteristics of Guangdong Province.     

孟加拉湾季风爆发对南海季风爆发的影响Ⅱ:数值试验

通过数值试验研究了孟加拉湾季风爆发期间该地区旺盛的对流凝结加热对南海季风爆发和副热带高压“撤出”南海的影响,结果证明在孟加拉湾地区引入模拟的对流凝结潜热使该地区出现了强烈的上升运动,引起了孟加拉湾季风的爆发。同时由于对凝结加热的非对称Rossby响应,在南海北部导致西风出现和增强及垂直上升运动。因低层水汽平流的共同作用下,在南海北部引起了对流的发展。而正是南海北部的凝结加热促使南海地区温度经向梯度逆转,使副热带高压脊面的倾斜从冬季型转为夏季型,即低层的副热带高压减弱南移。最后当对流在南海地区发展起来时,副热带高压移出南海地区。     

建筑物对城市通风自净能力影响的数值试验

应用城市气候数值模式，分别计算了三栋6层住宅楼和一栋20层住宅楼两类建筑形式影响下的风场，以及在此风场中街道汽车尾气的浓度分布。计算结果表明在总建筑面积基本相同的情况下，高层建筑周围环境的通风自净能力要优于多层建筑。