Quantifying the value of historical climate knowledge and climate forecasts using agricultural systems modelling

A well tested agricultural systems model was used together with 114 years of historical climate data to study the performance of a dryland wheat–fallow system as impacted by climate variations and nitrogen input levels in southeast Australia, and to investigate the value of: (1) historical climate knowledge, (2) a perfect climate forecast, and (3) various forecasts of targeted variables. The potential value of historical climate records increases exponentially with the number of years of data. In order to confidently quantify the long term optimal nitrogen application rate at the study site at least 30 years of climate data are required. For nitrogen management only, the potential value of a perfect climate forecast is about $54/ha/year with a reduction of excess nitrogen application of 20 kg N/ha/year. The value of an ENSO based forecast system is $2/ha/year. Perfect forecasting of three or six categories of growing season rainfall would have a value of $10–12/ha/year. Perfect forecasts of three or six categories of simulated crop yield would bring about $33–34/ha/year. Choosing integrated variables as a forecasting target, for example crop yield derived from agricultural modelling, has the potential to significantly increase the value of forecasts.     

Interannual and Interdecadal Variability of Winter Precipitation over China in Relation to Global Sea Level Pressure Anomalies

Based on the method of rotated principal component (RPC) analysis and wavelet transforms, the win-ter precipitation from 36 stations over China for the period 1881-1993 is examined. The results show thatthe three leading space-time modes correspond, in sequence, to winter rainfall anomalies over the reaches ofthe Yangtze River, the bend of the Yellow River, and the northeastern region of China. The three modes ex-hibit interannual oscillations with quasi-biennial and 8-year periods as well as interdecadal oscillationswith 16- and 32-year periods. The interannual oscillation (＜ 10 years) occurs in phase over the differentareas, and its maximum amplitude migrates northward considerably with prominent interdecadal variations.However, the interdecadal oscillations (10-32 years) are out of phase over the different regions, and theamplitude variations have the characteristics of stationary waves.The rainfall anomalies appear to be closely re lated to the anti-phase changes of mean sea-level pres-sure (SLP) over the Asian mainland and the North Pacific. When the SLP rises over the North Pacific anddecreases over the Asian mainland, the precipitation over East China increases noticeably. The linkage be-tween the rainfall over China and the SLP anomalies apparently results from the strength of the East Asianwinter monsoon and its associated temperature and moisture advection.     

Time elements in rectangular coordinates

In a paper by the second author (Nacozy, 1981), various time elements are presented for use with the Sundman time transformation. In that paper, the time elements are given in terms of Keplerianorbital elements. We give here the corresponding time elements in terms ofrectangular coordinates. Extensive references are given in the previous paper and will be omitted here.We present additional numerical experiments comparing the use of time elementsand time transformationstogether with the use of time transformationsalone. The results indicate a reduction in computational error when time elements are used.     

在EBEX-2000实验资料中湍流耗散率、长度尺度和结构参数特征

采用2000年8月在美国加州棉花地两个高度上应用超声三分量仪、快速响应温度和湿度仪进行的EBEX-2000 (International Energy Balance Experiment, 2000, 简称EBEX-2000) 风速三分量、温度和湿度湍流实验观测数据, 计算分析了在不同稳定度下的湍流能量和热量耗散率和湍流结构参数特征.并与Kansas和长白山原始森林湍流实验得到的结果进行了比较, 得到了一些湍流特征量在不同下垫面情况下的一些有意义的特征.     

Isolation of wells contaminated by tannery industries using principal component analysis

The groundwater in the upper Kodaganar basin is contaminated due to the discharge of effluents from tannery industries. The water in the wells, whose physico-chemical characteristics are altered due to the influence of the effluents, is statistically analyzed. The physico-chemical variables such as EC, Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, F^?, Cl^?, HCO₃ ^?,CO₃ ^2?, NO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2?, pH, and Cr_total were used for this study. An attempt was made to identify the contaminated wells based on suitability for drinking, suitability for industrial requirements, and through principal component analysis (PCA). Classification based on suitability helped in identifying the contaminated wells. However, this resulted in failure when identifying the wells that are contaminated by tanneries. PCA has proved to be effective in the segregation of contaminated wells influenced by tannery industries. The physico-chemical variables that are 13 in number are transformed into two orthogonal components and Eigen values based on the variance. The Eigen values are used to select the first two principal components PC1 (7.26) and PC2 (2.24) that accounted for 73.04% variance in the data. The components of the variables and the wells are plotted in a biplot to isolate the contaminated samples. The contaminated samples are analyzed in the spatial domain in geographic information system and found to be clustered around the tannery belt. The study reveals that 35% of the samples are contaminated due to discharge from tannery industries.     

Preface to the Special Issue: Climate Change and Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity

Tropical cyclones(TCs) are one of the most destructive natural phenomena on Earth in terms of human-life and economic losses. It is currently a matter of prodigious public and scientific interest how TC activity has changed and will change in a warming climate. This special issue focuses on a challenging subject raised in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) report and numerous research papers.     

The role of MJO and mid-latitude fronts in the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

Previous studies have suggested that the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon onset is concurrent with the arrival of a 30–60-day northward-propagating trough. On the other hand, from a synoptic viewpoint, some studies pointed out that the arrival of a mid-latitude front may be the triggering mechanism of the SCSSM onset. This study attempts to link these two viewpoints and to investigate their relative role in inducing the SCSSM onset. Composites of low-level zonal winds, geopotential heights and temperatures during the 1991–1999 SCSSM onsets based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast ERA-40 data indicate that both the Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO)/Kelvin waves and mid-latitude trough are apparently involved in the onset. The MJO/Kelvin waves play a major role in inducing the large-scale easterly-westerly shift over the central SCS, while the effect of the acceleration of westerlies ahead of the mid-latitude trough is limited to the northern SCS only. Numerical experiments using a regional climate model further demonstrate that the MJO/Kelvin waves control the timing of the onset by changing the background meridional geopotential height gradient over the SCS. When the MJO is at its peak phase over the Maritime continent, it imposes a positive meridional geopotential height gradient over the SCS such that easterly winds are induced, which significantly reduces the strength of a mid-latitude trough. After the equatorial convection has dissipated, a Rossby-wave response is induced, leading to the formation of a northward-moving trough. When this trough moves northward, the meridional geopotential height gradient is reversed and westerly winds are induced. At the same time, if a mid-latitude trough arrives in south China, the westerlies associated with the mid-latitude trough will strengthen because of the background meridional geopotential height gradient, which gives the impression that both the northward-moving trough and mid-latitude trough are in phase and work together to induce the onset.     

Thermal periodicities in the Venus atmosphere

A search was made for periodic fluctuations in the thermal brightness temperatures recorded by the Pioneer Venus orbiter's infrared radiometer. Data were averaged in 10 × 10° latitude-longitude bins for each of the 72 days the instrument was in operation. This time series of thermal brightness temperatures was then analyzed to determine the amplitude of fluctuations at periods from 2 to 64 days at four levels in the atmosphere (at the cloud tops and at approximately 70, 80, and 90 km). The amplitude of such fluctuations is small at equatorial latitudes and increases to a maximum at 60–70° latitude at most altitudes. The period of the highest amplitude fluctuation is 5.3±0.4 days (at all altitudes) except at 70–80°, where a 2.9-day period which appears to correspond to the polar dipole dominates the cloud-top channel. The amplitude of the periodic fluctuations is a maximum at the cloud tops, decreasing to a minimum at the 80-km channel, and increasing again at the 90-km channel.     

Mapping travelling convection vortex events with respect to energetic particle boundaries

Thirteen events of high-latitude ionospheric travelling convection vortices during very quiet conditions were identified in the Greenland magnetometer data during 1990 and 1991. The latitudes of the vortex centres for these events are compared to the energetic electron trapping boundaries as identified by the particle measurements of the NOAA 10 satellite. In addition, for all events at least one close DMSP overpass was available. All but one of the 13 cases agree to an exceptional degree that: the TCV centres are located within the region of trapped, high energy electrons close to the trapping boundary for the population of electrons with energy greater than > 100 keV. Correspondingly, from the DMSP data they are located within the region of plasmasheet-type precipitation close to the CPS/BPS precipitation boundary. That is, the TCV centres map to deep inside the magnetosphere and not to the magnetopause.